Micron's Earnings: A Bellwether for the Semiconductor Market

The current market sentiment is in a phase of confirming whether corporate profits in this earnings season can overcome these macro burdens.

Micron's earnings announcement this week is expected to significantly impact sentiment in the semiconductor sector.

With the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) stagnating near its previous high, Micron's earnings are projected to be a critical benchmark for assessing the overall adjustment and recovery of semiconductor and storage companies.

Whether semiconductor companies' profits can surpass current macro burdens has become a major market concern.

This robust economic data showed no signs of retreating from interest rate hike forecasts, acting as an additional stimulus for Treasury yields.

Related value chain companies, which had declined following reports of data center permit delays, mostly recovered their losses upon news that the schedule was proceeding normally.

Driven by this recovery, Blue Energy surged over 8%, indicating a positive trend across new and renewable energy-related stocks.

The US-China summit yielded no specific outcomes, such as discussions on rare earths or permission for Nvidia's semiconductor chip exports to China, which had been anticipated.

Despite the significant participation of AI leaders in this summit, no changes or advancements in semiconductor-related policies were confirmed, leading to market disappointment.

A former US Under Secretary criticized the summit's inadequate outcomes, stating that while rare earths were needed, only pandas were brought back.

Bitcoin continues to maintain a stable trend, still above the $84,000 mark, showing no clear direction but remaining flat.

While attention is on whether the domestic stock market will stabilize after absorbing selling pressure early in the session, overall market sentiment is assessed as still solid.

Blue Energy would need to break through its box range and settle to be considered a meaningful rise, but its current stock performance is positive.

In the US, medical AI-related companies are attracting attention, with Tempus AI showing a trend of higher lows and continued upward momentum.

In the medical AI industry, core competitiveness lies in the ability to accumulate experimental data and refine designs through learning.

No matter how well AI identifies candidate substances, actual data is ultimately needed for verification, making rapid accumulation and learning of experimental data crucial.

Companies like Hanmi Pharmaceutical, Voronoi, Y-Biologics, and Protina are evaluated to possess proprietary platforms and experimental capabilities, giving them data-driven competitiveness compared to global companies.

President Trump hinted at additional talks with Iran this week, calming fears of an attack that had escalated over the weekend.

The situation regarding Iran is rapidly changing daily, causing macro volatility, leading to the interpretation that a strategy of keeping negotiation channels open while maintaining pressure is in play.

WTI crude oil has rebounded by 1-2%, recording prices in the low $90s, but Brent crude is below $100, indicating lingering market expectations for further movement.

Additional action will likely be needed for oil prices to fall below $90.

Reuters reported that Solidigm, a grandchild company of SK Hynix, is considering a US listing as early as next year.

Solidigm's corporate value is being discussed at up to $150 billion, with a fundraising target of $15 billion, raising the possibility of the largest semiconductor IPO in history.

This is analyzed to have a positive impact on SK Hynix's stock, resulting from a combination of factors including plans to build NAND production facilities in the US and its integration into SK Hynix.

One of the reasons for SK Hynix's stock underperformance is mentioned as the issue of NAND fab construction, with the market prioritizing DRAM investments.

While Solidigm's listing could be a positive factor, there is room for complex interpretation when combined with future NAND fab groundbreaking and other related issues.

A vulnerability in personal information access was discovered in Meta's AI agent 'Muse' during the process of storing individual service information.

Cases of personal information being exploited by attackers were confirmed within two weeks of its launch, and details of this security incident were disclosed by The Information.

With technological advancements like AI assistants, the need for enhanced cybersecurity is growing, suggesting that cybersecurity-related issues could be long-term.

Security issues are continuously arising from major AI companies such as Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic, and due to the absence of globally competitive domestic security companies, the domestic market tends to show strong thematic movements.

The US Congress has introduced a bipartisan bill to prohibit the federal procurement of Chinese-made optical transceivers for national security systems.

Chinese optical transceivers account for over 70% of the global market, and these regulations are being pursued due to concerns about hacking and remote manipulation.

A five-year grace period is granted, so instead of immediate earnings reflection, it's necessary to focus on domestic beneficiaries such as Solution, Daehan Optic Communications, Sungho Electronics, and RF Materials from a momentum play perspective.

The US Energy Storage Association projects a massive expansion of ESS installations, setting targets of 225 GW in power output and 1 TWh in storage capacity by the end of 2032.

This represents an increase of over 300% in power output and 500% in storage capacity compared to current levels, with US new installations in Q2 this year recording an all-time quarterly high of 20 GWh.

Continued interest in energy-related stocks is necessary, coinciding with increased electric vehicle sales in Europe due to rising oil prices.