Downgrading Target Prices, an Uneasy Signal?

Samyang Foods is increasingly operating dedicated freezer booths in large US supermarkets. This phenomenon indicates the strengthening of Samyang Foods' market position and rising brand recognition due to strong export performance.

CEO Ha Chang-wan stated, "If you look at US supermarkets, there are often cases where an entire large freezer is dedicated to Samyang Foods," emphasizing the global competitiveness of Samyang Foods.

The domestic large-cap stock market is currently moving within a flat range. Despite the poor market performance yesterday, both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix closed with a 1% increase, signaling a positive outlook.

If foreign capital inflows, large-cap stocks have the potential to rebound, and share buybacks are also expected to contribute to securing downward price rigidity.

Investing in large-cap stocks requires a generous time series of at least 6 to 8 weeks. This is because, from a technical chart perspective, the market has now entered a phase of convergence followed by direction determination.

CEO Ha Chang-wan said, "If you are not too hasty and set a sufficiently generous time frame, about 6 to 8 weeks, that should be fine. If you are not going to invest in large-cap stocks for even two months, you should reconsider," emphasizing the need for enough time to observe quarterly earnings changes.

On the KOSDAQ market, robot stocks showed strength, with KNR System surging following the previous day's gains. This is analyzed as a complex interplay of robot expectations linked to Apple's foldable phone issue and expectations of a robot stock rotation following Tesla's stock price increase.

CEO Ha Chang-wan noted, "On KOSDAQ, robot stocks are quite good. In fact, if you look at the top gainers, KNR System is surging again after yesterday," expressing interest in the robot sector.

Currently, the stock market's upward and downward index fluctuations are definitely decreasing, and trading volume is also subtly and continuously declining. This phenomenon, along with the moving averages nearing convergence, suggests a decrease in market energy.

CEO Ha Chang-wan analyzed, "The up and down volatility is definitely shrinking little by little. Trading volume is also subtly but continuously decreasing. The moving averages are almost converging."

When the market index breaks through its previous high, the most ideal scenario is for trading volume to accompany it and surge significantly. This signifies a strong upward trend reversal and sets the conditions for high returns.

CEO Ha Chang-wan explained, "If these lines are broken through, and trading volume accompanies it and surges, wouldn't that be the best scenario? To achieve high returns, you have to endure stress," also emphasizing the importance of risk management through stop-loss criteria.

The main reasons for the current market stagnation are analyzed to be three factors: interest rates, war, and supply and demand. Despite the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.7%, US tech stocks have risen alongside, showing the market's adaptability to geopolitical risks.

CEO Ha Chang-wan commented, "I see three reasons: interest rates, war, and then supply and demand. When something happens in the stock market and then becomes factored in, it gets ignored. The US 10-year Treasury yield went up to 4.7%, yet US tech stocks still rose," explaining the impact of complex variables on the market.

He predicted that with the continued interest rate hike trend and geopolitical tensions, the direction of foreign capital inflow will be a crucial factor in determining market trends.

The fall of the exchange rate below 1,370 won can be seen as positive for investors, but it also has a dual nature as it can lead to reduced profits for export companies.

CEO Ha Chang-wan commented, "The exchange rate falling below 1,370 won, this, from an investment perspective, seems good in a way, but from the perspective of export companies, it means reduced profits," emphasizing the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on corporate earnings.

It is currently more rational to maintain a positive position when looking at the market. This is not about blindly hoping, but because when objectively analyzing various cases and trends, there is plenty to be optimistic about.

CEO Ha Chang-wan emphasized, "Wouldn't it be more rational to look at it from a positive position currently? This isn't about blindly hoping, but when looking at various cases and trends, and there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic, if we get too bogged down in negative content, we think very negatively and it's hard to maintain a position," advising the need to periodically remind oneself of the investment perspective without getting overwhelmed by negative thoughts.

In the biotech sector, movements are expected to be centered around policy-benefiting theme stocks rather than large-cap stocks like Samsung Biologics and Celltrion. Although there were White House-related issues, the sheer size of large-cap stocks limits the concentration of capital.

CEO Ha Chang-wan analyzed, "There was a slight White House-related issue with biotech. But the entities are too large. So, there's a question of whether capital will really concentrate. Currently, it's more about theme stocks, with HLB Group stocks continuously rising, and diagnosis kit-related parts, spearheaded by Shin Poong Pharmaceutical, and things like hair loss treatments, are expected to move more thematically. So, if large-cap stocks were to move, Alteogen would likely move too," suggesting an expectation for volatility in policy-linked themes such as hair loss and diagnosis kits.

Nvidia is aggressively investing in new industrial sectors such as optical communication, ASICs, and robotics, expanding its industrial ecosystem. These investments are interpreted as continuously growing the market pie, which is evaluated as a positive direction for increasing the overall scale.

CEO Ha Chang-wan explained, "I don't see it negatively. Because Nvidia tends to continuously lead new industries. I believe the market pie is continuously growing anyway. Since it's leading related industries while the pie is expanding, I don't see it negatively in that regard, as it increases the overall scale."

However, regarding this structural change where corporations take on the role of government, risks and questions about the role of a final lender can also be raised.

Crypto-related stocks, including Coinbase Global, are showing strength. This is attributed to the overall improvement in the crypto market sentiment and positively impacting stablecoin-related stock groups.

CEO Ha Chang-wan stated, "Coinbase Global and all related stocks were good. As a result, other stock groups like Kookon, which are related to stablecoins, are also showing some strength," conveying the growing market interest in the crypto-related sector.

Netmarble and Devsisters showed good performance in the morning, with Devsisters experiencing a short-term rise due to a Cookie Run-related event. However, the Gamescom effect was absent.

CEO Ha Chang-wan advised, "Netmarble and Devsisters were good in the morning. Devsisters had a Cookie Run-related event, so it will likely be a short-term rise, but anyway, with such news... where new releases come out or new release performance is good, you need to pay some attention." He emphasized the need to selectively approach stocks based on new release performance.

Game stocks tend to be strongly influenced by new game releases and their performance, so investors should carefully watch the new release momentum of individual companies.

WTI crude oil continues to rise to $86.64, suggesting movement in refinery stocks and oil-related issues. However, caution is needed for refinery stocks due to their tendency to fluctuate within a box range.

CEO Ha Chang-wan commented, "Oil prices are rising further now. $86.64... This could lead to movements in refinery stocks, oil stocks... For new buyers, I would definitely wait for it to break through and open higher before entering... I think it's a situation where existing holders should play." He advised that a holder's perspective is more appropriate than a new buyer's perspective. For new purchases, it's crucial to confirm a clear breakthrough before entering.

Although foreigners are currently selling 132.9 billion won, this instability in capital inflow is considered a temporary phenomenon related to month-end rebalancing. Capital flow changes observed during the previous day's simultaneous close typically roll back the next day.

The exchange rate is below 1,370 won, and despite the current lack of trading volume, there is no major foreign capital outflow observed.

If the yen's strength is maintained, it could induce dollar weakness, thereby limiting a sharp rise in the exchange rate during foreign capital outflow. The linkage between US and Japanese interest rate hike trends is expected to continue for some time.

CEO Ha Chang-wan explained, "It's pushing for a stronger yen, and because of that, the dollar has weakened," analyzing the impact of yen strength on the global foreign exchange market and domestic stock market capital flows.

This trend is expected to be a crucial variable for foreign capital inflows and outflows in the domestic stock market, and investors need to continuously monitor the yen's appreciation trend.

The KOSDAQ market is showing signs of correction due to the underperformance of large-cap stocks and the impact of interest rates. Volatility in materials, parts, and equipment (SoBuJang) stocks is expanding with the fluctuations of large-cap semiconductor stocks.

CEO Ha Chang-wan commented, "The inability of large-cap stocks to rise suggests some impact from interest rates, and I believe it's hard for KOSDAQ to see significant gains unless biotech moves," assessing that without movement in large-cap biotech stocks, significant gains in the KOSDAQ market are unlikely.

Due to interest rate burdens, profit-taking is occurring primarily in theme-related stocks, thus requiring a more cautious approach when investing in KOSDAQ.

CEO Ha Chang-wan suggested that investing in the KOSPI index might be a better choice than the KOSDAQ market. Currently, the leadership of the biotech sector within KOSDAQ needs to be confirmed, and approaching with a check of sector-specific rotation seems a wise strategy.

He stated, "I tend to think KOSPI is generally better than KOSDAQ," emphasizing portfolio construction that considers both stability and growth.