Will the blockade of Iran lead to regime collapse?

The United States is implementing a powerful sanctions operation to isolate Iran from the international economic system.

As a result of this blockade, Iran's crude oil exports have plummeted to virtually zero.

With the Strait of Hormuz, a major crude oil shipping route, blocked by the US, Iran is facing significant difficulties in exporting crude oil.

Although Iran is re-exporting some crude oil via land routes, the limitations in terms of transport volume and cost suggest that the blockade is having a significant practical effect.

Such provocations suggest that the strong influence of hardliners on both the US and Iranian sides could make a negotiation breakthrough even more difficult.

There is a possibility that CTM-290 ballistic missiles, included in the Chunmoo guided missile system exported by Korea to Saudi Arabia, were also used in combat.

Given that Houthi rebels lack the means to intercept these ballistic missiles, Saudi Arabia's use of these weapons could pose a fatal threat to the rebels.

The US consequently promised to unfreeze $100 billion in assets and allow unlimited crude oil exports.

It also included plans to allow unlimited crude oil exports from Iran and establish a $300 million fund for Iran's reconstruction.

These terms were so overwhelmingly favorable to Iran that they were seen as a virtual surrender of the Trump administration's hardline policy against Iran, sparking controversy.

Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council, presented 7 conditions for an end to the war to the US in an interview with Al Jazeera.

Iran put forth conditions such as reconfirming the existing MOU and guaranteeing crude oil exports, threatening to continue the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz if these were not accepted.

This is interpreted as Iran revealing its true intention to secure control over the Strait of Hormuz through negotiations.

Economic pressure is expected to intensify further once Iran depletes its last remaining oil stored in tankers.

President Trump is maintaining a hardline stance against Iran regardless of the midterm election results.

President Trump has stated his intention to stick to a hardline policy against Iran, regardless of the midterm election results, lowering expectations for negotiations.

The US, which blocked the Persian Gulf maritime route that handled 180 million tons of cargo annually, further intensified its blockade by sanctioning Iranian airline services through the US Treasury Department, effectively closing off air routes as well.

Following the blockage of the Persian Gulf maritime route, which handled 180 million tons of cargo annually, the US Treasury Department also sanctioned foreign companies involved in fuel supply, landing services, and aircraft sales for Iranian airlines on September 20.

This dual blockade is inflicting massive damage on Iran's economy and weakening its capacity to withstand a protracted conflict.

Consequently, Iran's ability to support proxy forces like the Houthi rebels is also expected to diminish.

The 60-day ceasefire MOU signed in mid-June offered Iran favorable terms, including non-interference in internal affairs, unfreezing $100 billion, and allowing crude oil exports.

However, it is believed that Iran made a second strategic mistake by insisting on blockading the Strait of Hormuz immediately after Khamenei's funeral.

In response, the Trump administration intensified its counter-blockade, further deepening Iran's economic isolation.

Initially, some criticized Trump's early negotiations for being ill-prepared and leading to a prolonged conflict.

The US is not accepting Iran's negotiation proposals and is escalating pressure to induce a surrender. This hardline response has led to a refusal to negotiate with Iran.

Amid rising political burdens due to increasing domestic inflation, President Trump's approval ratings are declining ahead of the midterm elections. Some criticize this refusal to negotiate as an inappropriate response.

As President Trump rejects Iran's seven peace proposals and intensifies pressure, gasoline and diesel prices in the US have surpassed $4 and $6 per gallon respectively, leading to a sense of psychological panic.

As a result, Trump's approval rating hit a record low of 32%, and calls for regime change reached 43%, the highest level in 20 years.

Even Texas, traditionally a Republican stronghold, is seeing its political landscape shift, deepening the Trump administration's political crisis.

Iran is assessed to have the capacity to withstand a protracted war, thanks to its fertile land and self-sufficient economic structure.

In the early stages of the war, a rallying around the theocratic system strengthened the regime's legitimacy.

However, if long-term US sanctions continue, shortages of essential consumer goods and medicines could intensify, potentially leading to the spread of anti-government sentiment internally.

Iran's population numbers 86 million, which could be a potential factor for long-term social unrest.

Recently released footage shows evidence of areas near Houthi rebels being struck, suggesting that Saudi Arabia may have used CTM-290s in actual combat.

The panel estimates that Saudi Arabia would have fired several CTM-290 missiles at Houthi rebels given the situation.

Such missile armament is interpreted as sending a strong warning message to the rebels, and the urgent wartime situation in Saudi Arabia also raises the possibility of additional procurements of Korean-made weapons.

In particular, the non-interference clause was controversial because it essentially acknowledged the terrorist nature of Iran's regime at a time when the US had killed Iran's supreme leader.

However, hardliners within Iran continue to insist on blockading the Strait of Hormuz, raising doubts about the effectiveness of the MOU.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard presented 7 conditions for an end to the war to the US, demanding a halt to fighting on all fronts, unfreezing assets, allowing crude oil exports, and lifting the counter-blockade.

The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament stated, 'If conditions are not met, we will continue the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,' revealing Iran's true intention to maintain control over Hormuz regardless of negotiations.

Soaring oil prices, with gasoline at $4 and diesel at $6, and economic deterioration are fueling psychological panic in the US.

With gasoline prices in the US exceeding $4 per gallon and diesel at $6, public psychological panic is intensifying.

This has led to Trump's approval rating dropping to 32% and calls for regime change reaching 43%, the highest level in 20 years, bringing political risk as even Texas, a traditional Republican stronghold, sees its political landscape shifting.