Hormuz Dispatch and Korea's Choice

During a parliamentary interpellation, the Prime Minister stated that no decision had yet been made regarding the dispatch of troops to the Strait of Hormuz. However, it is known that the Ministry of National Defense has already sent a military inspection team to the Al Dhafra US military base in the UAE, adjacent to Hormuz, to assess the feasibility of unit operations during a dispatch.

The government is taking a cautious stance on appearing to actively rush the dispatch, as its approval ratings are not as high as expected. This is interpreted as a measure to prevent the alienation of key supporters. While preparations for the dispatch of non-combat personnel are somewhat advanced, the government appears to be publicly showing a lack of urgency, suggesting a calculation to consolidate its support base.

The Strait of Hormuz is like the main artery for South Korea's crude oil supply. For the past 40 years, the United States has maintained two aircraft carrier strike groups, enabling stable crude oil supply. Considering that maintaining a US aircraft carrier strike group costs 18 billion won per day, some argue that Korea's dispatch is a matter of course.

South Korea is in the worst geopolitical position in the world, surrounded by North Korea, China, and Russia. To prepare for the possibility of a second or third Korean War, an artificial insurance mechanism—the ROK-US alliance—must be maintained. The dispatch to Hormuz is an essential process to prepare for future security crises and strengthen alliance relations.

Korea's hesitation to dispatch troops to Hormuz could disappoint not only US political and military circles but also ordinary American citizens. This could be seen as a continuation of Korea's past 'security with the US, economy with China' (AnMiKyungJung) policy. If Korea is seen as being swayed by Iran, voices advocating for a realignment of the alliance with Korea could grow louder in the United States.

There was a case in the 1980s where Japan, intoxicated by economic growth, made remarks that mocked US authority, leading to anti-Japanese sentiment in the United States. In the past, Korea fostered empathy with American citizens by showing respect for the US military, but it is pointed out that this empathy could collapse if Korea refuses the Hormuz dispatch. If ordinary American citizens no longer consider Korea an ally, it could lead to the collapse of the last bastion of security insurance.

Former President Moon Jae-in proposed in July 2021 at the UN Conference on Trade and Development that South Korea be recognized as a developed, not developing, nation. As a result, Korea lost the benefits of regulatory exemptions it had enjoyed as one of 150 developing countries. Instead, it was given new international obligations as a developed nation, such as strengthened climate agreements and carbon emission regulations. Ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is also considered part of Korea's rightful international responsibility as a developed nation.

Good politics means that a leader takes responsibility and acts for the nation when necessary, even if their personal political base is shaken and they face criticism from their supporters. In the past, projects like the Gyeongbu Expressway construction, POSCO establishment, and Vietnam dispatch during the industrialization era all faced overwhelming opposition, but they were pursued through leaders' decisions and contributed to national development. If it is necessary for national interest and 40-50 years of prosperity, a leader must take responsibility and push it forward, and the Roh Moo-hyun administration's forceful push for the KORUS FTA also needs to be reevaluated.

Currently, Iran's regular forces, including its army, navy, and air force, are virtually disintegrated. It is argued that what remains are small-scale provocations by the IRGC warlords and retaliatory oil tanker seizures by the US. Iran's statements regarding missile attacks may have been exaggerated for external purposes.

Regardless of the method of resolution, Iran is projected to struggle to provide ample funds to the Houthi rebel forces in the region. Iran will likely mobilize its remaining forces to gain a favorable position before negotiations, and for former President Trump, the November midterm elections could be a turning point for provocation and a shift in the situation.

There is a precedent from the Cold War era, around 1990, when after the collapse of the Soviet Union, numerous Eastern Bloc satellite states and parties/organizations that represented the Soviet stance also fell. When funding was cut off and the winds of freedom blew through the Eastern Bloc starting with the 1988 Seoul Olympics, they became powerless and disappeared. It is observed that Iran will be no different.

It is considered 'the norm' for the ruling party to lose in US elections, a phenomenon rooted in the American public's custom of valuing the principle of checks and balances.

There have only been three exceptional cases where the ruling party also won the House in US midterm elections. The first was in 1934 during the Great Depression under President Roosevelt, when there was strong public opinion that the nation needed to unite to overcome the crisis. The second was in 2002 during President George W. Bush's wartime, when public opinion favored empowering the president. The third was during President Bill Clinton's term in 1998, when an unprecedented economic boom was the backdrop for the ruling party's victory.

A change in global strategic direction due to a midterm election defeat could lead to greater confusion. As confusion increases, public opinion in the latter half of his term could worsen, so former President Trump is expected to continue governing, assuming an election defeat.

Currently, the Iran war is in a situation where the US can unilaterally declare victory or an end to hostilities without issue. It is possible that former President Trump is working behind the scenes to create some 'big event' ahead of the November midterm elections. It is observed that simply announcing a dramatic agreement with Kim Jong Un just before the election could significantly sway public opinion.

China desires relaxed semiconductor regulations from the US and may be willing to mediate a meeting between Kim Jong Un and Trump to improve diplomatic relations with the US.

CNN reported that the Iran war has brought about three changes. First, the geopolitical risk factors in the Strait of Hormuz have become permanent, not temporary. Second, accelerated de-oiling has occurred, and third, a reorganization of the oil supply chain is underway. This report includes a critical tone, suggesting that the US provoked Iran, thereby institutionalizing the risks to important energy supplies.

If Iran completes its nuclear weapons program, the United States would find it difficult to take punitive action beyond economic sanctions, even if Iran controls oil supply or imposes transit fees. Nuclear weapons neutralize US response capabilities. Iran is a key supporter of North Korea, China, and Russia, and Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons is projected to pose a fatal threat to East Asian security. Iran's missile technology is already close to achieving ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) range.