Kim Min-seok Leads Honam Member Vote; Analysis of Democratic Convention Race

The Democratic Party rights-holding member vote runs in Jeonnam, Gwangju, and Jeonbuk in the Honam region through today (the 14th), with Seoul and Gyeonggi running through tomorrow. Turnout reflected so far is about 19.9%, with the final reflection rate expected at 22.8% for Honam and 26.5% for Seoul and Gyeonggi.

Political commentator Kim Sung-wan explained that understanding the structure of the Democratic voter pool is important as voting nears its end, suggesting Kim Min-seok is clearly gaining strength in Honam.

In a Jeongseong Media Today poll, Kim had 44.1% to Jung's 39%, while a Realmeter poll showed Kim at 57.7% and Jung at 28.2%, a gap of nearly 20 percentage points.

Other surveys also show Kim leading by double digits, making his strength in the Honam region evident.

Her father is also a Democratic rights-holding member and expressed strong support, calling Lee Jae-myung "the best president of my life."

Oh said her family's reactions indirectly confirmed the high support for Lee Jae-myung in Gwangju.

Kim Sung-wan explained that even if Honam voters dislike a particular figure, they consider how to use that figure to achieve the long-term goal of helping the Democratic Party take power.

This is interpreted as strategic voting, in which voters carefully consider who would be more advantageous to the Democratic Party's presidential victory and which candidate would raise the chances of retaking power. Experts expect this forward-looking judgment to significantly shape the Honam vote.

Experts analyze that Honam's voting tendency reflects not just emotional support but a willingness to make the best practical, future-oriented choice for the Democratic Party's electoral victory.

He said this is a natural progression given the historical context of Honam.

Given that Honam voters have made pragmatic choices in the past, analysts expect them to agree with the centrist direction aimed at expanding the Democratic Party's reach.

Looking only at online turnout, the Honam region ranked seventh-lowest overall, showing turnout below expectations. Concerns are being raised among those who had expected high turnout in Honam.

By contrast, Seoul's online turnout was 45.31% and Gyeonggi's was 46.74%, with Gyeonggi recording a higher figure and relatively high participation.

As the population of older voters in the Honam region rises, it is estimated that many will vote by ARS phone response even if online turnout is low. This is attributed to older voters, who have less access to online voting, preferring phone voting.

As a result, the prevailing view is that it is difficult to determine Honam's overall turnout or voter sentiment from online figures alone. Experts see ARS voting results as a variable that could change the final picture.

Attorney Jeong Gu-seung said his own wife did not receive the KakaoTalk message with voting instructions and therefore could not vote. He said he is waiting for a phone call to vote and pointed out that such system errors are acting as a variable in the vote.

Jeong said that even considering the difficulty of applying the KakaoTalk system, such problems should not occur, and stressed that the system issue should be reviewed again regardless of the convention result.

Attorney Jeong Gu-seung criticized the current Democratic primary rules for undermining the original meaning of the regional rotating primary. He argued that the regional rotation should create buzz and generate variables, with results from each region affecting the next.

However, he said that under the current system it would be better to hold a single nationwide vote on one day, arguing the present rotation fails to achieve its goal of generating interest.

An analysis suggests Seoul and Gyeonggi may show different voter sentiment. In particular, Gyeonggi has many lawmakers aligned with the so-called pro-Lee Myung-bak camp, so active voting could occur there.

Experts offer varied analyses that, considering the overall metropolitan picture, the outcome is unlikely to favor any single candidate unilaterally. This is interpreted as reflecting the distinct political characteristics and voter tendencies of Seoul and Gyeonggi.

Kim Sung-wan stressed that Seoul is a city with strong conservative leanings, so for the Democratic Party to win elections it must present the most reasonable message. He noted that this is effectively a space where conservative arguments must be addressed.

He expressed skepticism over whether rights-holding members, who are aware of this, would unilaterally choose Jung Chung-rae. He warned that if votes concentrate on a single candidate, it could work against the Democratic Party.

The public opinion poll weighted at 30%, to be released next Monday, is expected to have a major influence on the convention result. Because the poll targets Democratic supporters and undecided voters, it has a structure designed to prevent reverse selection.

Kim Sung-wan noted that in such polls Kim Min-seok appears to have been ahead quite often. Analysts say the public opinion poll will be the key variable determining the final picture.

Experts argue that if the votes of Democratic supporters and undecided voters go to Kim Min-seok, combining them with the rights-holding member vote could significantly shift the overall trend.

Oh Yoon-hye analyzed that support trends for Kim Min-seok and Jung Chung-rae were initially neck-and-neck but have gradually widened. She recalled a time when Jung's momentum seemed formidable, until Yu Si-min's proposal for political realignment surfaced.

Afterward, Oh diagnosed that a series of gaffes, misstatements, and eccentric remarks by Jung and Supreme Council members combined to widen the gap between the two candidates.

The reason is that the reverse-selection safeguard applies, so only the tendencies of Democratic supporters and undecided voters are reflected.

She analyzed that such tendencies were already clearly shown in earlier polls, so the outcome of this public poll will not differ much.

Attorney Jeong Gu-seung stressed that the outcome of this convention is a critical matter that will determine whether the Lee Jae-myung government secures momentum. He said he feels this importance especially strongly in the Pyeongtaek area.

This is interpreted to mean that depending on who wins the convention, the Lee Jae-myung government could gain significant strength for the national agenda and policy direction it pursues next, or instead lose momentum.

Viewer Sam-a from Busan commented that "what Team Jung have in common is that they lack a sense of fairness, are incompetent, and are no help to the Lee Jae-myung government." He urged internal Democratic unity, saying, "We must come together for the Lee Jae-myung government to succeed."

The post reads: "Shall we hear what Writer Yu has to say at this point? Since his influence is so large, I fully understand why he kept a neutral gear during such a sensitive time. But doesn't this point call for hearing the opinions Writer Yu has been holding back? Don't we at least have the right to?"

That this post rose to the top suggests that among News Factory viewers there is curiosity about writer Yu Si-min's political views, along with frustration with the show's neutral stance during a particular period.

Kim Sung-wan said he does not voluntarily appear on TV Chosun, but cannot appear on "Gyeomsonghaneun Himdeulda News Factory (Gyeomgong)" because he is not invited. He said he has recently thought it was good he did not appear on Gyeomgong, and argued that Gyeomgong itself needs to reflect on its position.

Kim argued that while Gyeomgong criticizes legacy media, it has now become an outlet with influence no less than legacy media. He stressed Gyeomgong's considerable influence, citing its annual revenue in the high 40 billion won range and the recent sale price of a Busan daily newspaper.

He said that if it supports a particular candidate, it should clearly say, "I support candidate Jung Chung-rae."

Kim argued that the posture of pretending to be fair is an even bigger problem. Just as a conservative newspaper that backs a candidate while claiming to be objective and fair is problematic, he criticized Gyeomgong for trying to exert influence without revealing its identity, urging it to be honest about where it stands.

Kim Sung-wan sharply criticized News Factory's claim that "we were fair from the start," saying, "Isn't that even more hypocritical?"

This is interpreted as expressing viewers' distrust and disappointment over the show's recent change in posture.