Robot and Semiconductor Stocks: Watch Out for Short-Term Volatility

It was emphasized that given the linkage with the US stock market, the possibility of rotation in AI software-related stocks should be checked.

This is judged to be a preemptive supply-demand adjustment in preparation for the simultaneous expiration of futures and options. It was analyzed that if Samsung Electronics is intensively sold by passive supply and demand, downward pressure could also affect the overall index.

However, due to profitability noise from bond yield fluctuations, frequent profit-taking sales are appearing, leading to increased volatility. These complex factors are influencing the movement of robot stocks.

It was analyzed that the war is unlikely to end in the short term and has a high probability of continuing. Former President Trump is expected to use external enemies (war) to strengthen his political standing before the election. If the war does not worsen further, it could also act as a factor ignored by the market.

The price discrepancy between Samsung Electronics and Hynix ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) has significantly widened. Semiconductor conference content is generally positive, with widespread forecasts for increased demand and price hikes. CEO Ha Chang-wan explained that if external variables are resolved, the domestic stock market is highly likely to rise.

Tonight, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will attend the Goldman Sachs conference. Positive remarks have recently been made in the tech sector, and good news is expected again. CEO Ha Chang-wan believes that even if the market undergoes an adjustment today, the semiconductor sector is highly likely to rebound tomorrow.

When breaking the previous high, the candle must clearly break above it on a closing basis. CEO Ha Chang-wan explained that if it fails to break through, it usually tends to fall back to the price level before the rally. Currently, large-cap stocks have fallen excessively, making their prices attractive, but a cautious approach through technical analysis is needed.

There was no significant change in the KOSDAQ market apart from robot stocks. However, signs of a rebound are being detected in some SOBUJANG (materials, parts, equipment) stocks. CEO Ha Bo-no stated that further confirmation is needed to see if these rebound movements will continue to expand.

Foreigners showed additional net buying of about 90.3 billion won in the spot market. When foreign spot capital flows in, it tends to be accompanied by program buying. CEO Ha Bo-no noted a 4.6 billion won surplus in non-arbitrage transactions and stated that they are checking for potential improvement in the quality of supply and demand.

When blue energy moves, other hydrogen-related stocks such as Doosan Fuel Cell and Iljin Hysolus also tend to rise together. The question of continuity following yesterday's surge is noteworthy.

For efficient trading, it's crucial to organize a watchlist by theme. When a leading stock in a specific theme shows movement, CEO Ha Bo-no advised a strategy of real-time chart and issue analysis for that stock before entering. This helps in seizing opportunities in a rapidly changing market.

When war-related stocks show strength, it reflects a deteriorating market sentiment. In such a situation, theme stocks like robots, which cannot generate immediate profits, face increased pressure on profitability due to rising bond yields. Consequently, profit-taking sales tend to emerge from high-return theme stocks, leading to a withdrawal of supply and demand.

Myungshin Industrial saw a short-term surge after the convergence of moving averages. CEO Ha Bo-no emphasized the importance of confirming whether the 9,300 to 9,600 won line is broken. He explained that if this line is not broken, it could form an upper wick and provide another opportunity to buy, thus a selling response is needed.

In particular, there is a risk of breaking below the 120-week line and further decline. At this point, buying carries a high risk of loss, so it is recommended to refrain from purchasing.

Considering the typical pattern of SOBUJANG stocks, SFA Semiconductor appears to have room to rise to the 7,700 won line in the short term. While the upside is higher than the downside, CEO Ha Chang-wan judged the risk-reward ratio to be ambiguous. He advised caution against frequent trading for a short-term 10% profit and urged a prudent approach to new entries.

Recently, feed and grain-related stocks such as Shinsong Holdings and Heung-goo Petroleum showed strength. This was analyzed as being not unrelated to the intensification of the war. If even feed and grain stocks are moving, it can be seen that war-related theme stocks are generally open, and a rotation within the defense theme should be closely watched.