A Market Without Leading Stocks or Major Buyers

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's comments regarding profitability were a major factor in increasing market volatility. These remarks created a market atmosphere similar to when Hynix's stock price dropped by 7% in the past. This has dampened individual investors' sentiment and raised concerns about potential stop-losses.

The current market lacks major players who can comfortably buy. Today, individual investors bought over 4 trillion won, but this is not strong enough buying to drive a sustained uptrend. Foreign investors tend to trade mechanically according to Nasdaq futures trends, and there are clear limits to buying due to an overall decline in market fundamentals and confidence.

Sectors that showed an upward trend today (as of the video recording date) include defense, cosmetics, bank stocks, and entertainment. In contrast, security-related sectors that rose last week recorded a decline. This indicates a pattern of sector rotation to alternative sectors when foreign investors withdraw, suggesting a lack of sustained buying in specific industries.

In the current market, there is a prominent phenomenon of trading with fixed maturities in specific sectors, such as nuclear power. This implies a tendency to focus on short-term profit realization, driven by deadlines rather than fundamental order intake and earnings growth. As foreign and institutional investors favor these short-term investment patterns, market short-term volatility is intensifying.

Personally, the current market shows a very similar trend to the domestic market before COVID-19. Similar to the frustrating box range market, strategies involving effective index play or targeting specific stocks for trading can still be effective. However, chasing dopamine-driven purchases can lead to immediate corrections, so caution is needed.

The current market exhibits characteristics of a 'chart market,' reacting very sensitively to chart indicators. There are many instances where breakouts fail at technical resistance lines like the 60-day moving average due to the absence of buying players. This is cited as a major reason why the market repeatedly moves according to technical trends, and experts' forecasts change frequently. As trading entities move according to the market's technical trends, unpredictable volatility is increasing.

Historically, the 3-4 trading days before the Chuseok holiday usually show a weakening trend. Therefore, for cash holders, utilizing this period to accumulate stocks is an effective strategy. However, for investors who are already stuck with stocks, it is advised to stay put to avoid missteps in trading.

Accounts with a high proportion of small-cap stocks and using credit can be exposed to significant risk during market corrections. It is necessary to rebalance the portfolio towards core market sectors before the earnings season approaches in early October. This is to prepare for the possibility of varying outcomes for individual stocks due to earnings announcements.

It is impossible to catch the overall market bottom all at once. Therefore, at this point, it is crucial to consolidate the portfolio around performance stocks that have fallen significantly. Holding cheaply acquired performance stocks will allow for effective 대응 (response) when the market rebounds later.

Sectors to watch in the current market include shipbuilding and defense. These sectors have shown unwavering upward trends in earnings despite the recent macro environment. Semiconductors and power equipment also have good earnings estimates, but price volatility should be considered. Chasing already surging stocks like nuclear power should be avoided.

Chasing soaring stocks mostly repeats the pattern of getting stuck. This happens because individuals get excited and buy when major players, institutions and foreigners, are selling and leaving. Therefore, it is necessary to avoid chasing soaring stocks and invest cautiously.

The recent movement in entertainment stocks is due to their relatively low price burden, having been overlooked during previous rallies. Their price levels haven't risen much, making them comparatively attractive. Similarly, sectors like shipbuilding, with historical P/E ratios around 10 times, can also be a sufficient alternative.

Individual investors who lack cash or are stuck in positions may seek a core leading stock that can turn the market around, but such a leader is absent in the current market. Therefore, rather than being swayed by every market fluctuation, it is crucial to evaluate the fundamentals and value of individual stocks and respond on a stock-by-stock basis.

The prevailing interpretation is that if a stock price doesn't move, there's a good reason for it. This makes it challenging for individual investors to make decisions contrary to market trends.

Stable assets do not refer to commonly known assets, but rather to overlooked stocks that major players haven't touched, or stocks with good earnings. If one must take risks, these are the stocks to focus on. Additionally, a trading strategy centered on leading stocks with healthy charts within their sector is effective.

Avoid buying all stocks at once during a sharp market decline. This helps diversify risk and lower the average purchase price.

External variables occurring at that time, especially war and oil price volatility, can be more crucial than the number of interest rate hikes themselves. For example, when two rate hikes are expected, what kind of situation changes occur is key. Uncertain factors like former President Trump's remarks can also affect the market, requiring a flexible response.

The market always moves honestly, and the impact of interest rate hikes is judged to have already been reflected in the market. Therefore, the possibility that today (as of the video recording date) is the bottom cannot be ruled out. It is necessary to consider all variables currently reflected in the market, rather than just the interest rate hike itself.