Jeong Chung-rae's approval moves against Lee Jae-myung's, sparking 'self-interest' debate over causes of Democratic core-support defection

Reporter Park Dae-yong stressed that this number is large enough to shift the internal party rankings within that region. It suggests that an organized movement by a particular faction may be influencing the party's membership makeup, which could become a significant variable in future intra-party elections and policy decisions.

Such a large influx of members may represent a rallying of support behind a particular candidate or faction, and combining the party's traditional support base with new members could spark debate over the party's identity and direction. Since the larger the membership sign-up, the greater its effect on the share of voters in intra-party primaries, attention is focused on how this report will change the internal dynamics of the Democratic Party.

Jeong Chung-rae, announcing his bid for Democratic Party leader, claimed that if he is elected, President Lee Jae-myung's approval will rise. He said the party's core supporters, the so-called 'core base,' have lost their enthusiasm, and that he is receiving the backing of this core base. He emphasized that he would rally these supporters, and that doing so would lead to a rise in President Lee's approval.

This remark is interpreted as Jeong positioning himself as the spokesperson for the party's core supporters and the focal point for rallying them. He argued that solidifying the party's traditional base should take priority over expanding outward, and that he is the right person to carry out that role. His argument locates the cause of President Lee's falling approval in the defection of core supporters and presents his election as party leader as the remedy.

The view exposes a difference within the party over both the diagnosis of President Lee's falling approval and its solution, and Jeong's position is expected to have a considerable effect on the intra-party contest.

Recent polls have shown Jeong Chung-rae's approval moving in the opposite direction to President Lee Jae-myung's. When Lee's approval fell, Jeong's rose. Reporter Park Dae-yong said this inverse movement is clearly observable, but it was difficult to confirm a causal relationship in which one figure directly drags down the other's approval.

This pattern may suggest subtle differences in the two politicians' support bases or political positions. For example, it cannot be ruled out that some of President Lee's supporters shifted their backing to Jeong on particular issues or in particular circumstances. But this is a mere correlation, and a clear causal link has not been established.

Some have pointed out that since the Lee Jae-myung era began, suspicion has arisen that there is a move to cut these roots. Former President Moon's supporters initially did not take issue with expressions such as 'Moon-jo teol-rae,' but as this tendency deepened, concern about the party's identity has grown among its traditional supporters, according to the analysis.

This means that conflict between mainstream and non-mainstream factions within the party could lead to a split among traditional supporters. Among party members, the view appears to be spreading that actions dividing traditional supporters should not become the party's mainstream. Among members who value the party's history and principles, a sense of crisis is growing that the current changes could shake the party's foundations.

Jeong Chung-rae said he is one of the Democratic Party's core 'core supporters' and feels the strongest psychological bond and solidarity with them. He said it is important to firmly bind the party's 'base,' the traditional core supporters, and only afterward can outreach to new voters be pursued. He warned that if the vessel binding core supporters breaks, the Democratic Party would be like a pavilion built on sand.

Jeong argued that firmly binding the traditional core supporters is the party's most important first task, and he strongly stressed that he is the right person for that role. This is interpreted as his declaration that, as party leader, he would focus on consolidating internal unity and preventing core supporters from leaving. His stance is seen as part of a strategy to secure the votes of core supporters in the intra-party contest.

As recently as July 14, Jeong took a somewhat cautious stance, asking whether core supporters were 'wavering.' But at yesterday's press conference he used language close to certainty, saying they had 'turned their backs,' revealing that he now sees the defection as more serious.

This shift suggests Jeong views the defection of core supporters not as a temporary phenomenon but as a serious problem. His definitive assessment may also be intended to underscore the need for him, as party leader, to rally core supporters again. The change within one month could mean his view of the party's situation has become more pessimistic, or it could be a strategic remark meant to highlight his own role ahead of the contest.

Various analyses have emerged on the cause of President Lee Jae-myung's approval falling about 22 percentage points. Kim Eo-jun diagnosed the main cause as the defection of core supporters, but Park Dae-yong questioned this and said that who exactly defected is the key issue for today's broadcast. Given that Lee's approval fell from 67% to 45%, identifying the nature of the supporters who left will be critical to the party's future strategy.

If core supporters have defected, this could be interpreted as a serious problem shaking the party's foundations, in which case the party should focus on soothing and rallying them. On the other hand, if moderates or some conservative-leaning voters have left, the party should pursue more centrist policies and work to expand outward.

Depending on where the cause of Lee's falling approval is located, the party's future strategy and direction could change completely. The theory of core-supporter defection and the theory of moderate and conservative defection have produced disagreement even among key party figures, making the debate central.

Recent polls show the Democratic Party's approval has surpassed President Lee Jae-myung's. In the past, the president's approval tended to be higher than the party's, but now the party's approval is slightly higher than the positive rating of President Lee. Reporter Park Dae-yong noted that while the party's approval is recovering, President Lee's positive rating has not risen accordingly.

This means some voters who support the Democratic Party remain critical or reserved about President Lee's conduct of state affairs. It is possible to analyze that support for the party itself and support for its leading figure are separating. This imbalance suggests that Democratic members may disagree over Lee's leadership, or that dissatisfaction over particular issues has not been resolved.

Jeong himself may not want that label, but as an objective matter, that is clearly how it appears.

Park analyzed that deep within Jeong's 'core,' there is probably a belief that he is better than President Lee. This reflects the critical view that Jeong is practicing 'self-interested politics,' seeking to strengthen his own position within the party and sometimes trying to differentiate himself from Lee's leadership. It carries the concern that his conduct could undermine party unity and weaken President Lee's standing.

A poll by Jo Won C&I, conducted over four days from last month 25th among 2,000 people, released results that separately classified 499 respondents who identified themselves as Democratic Party members and asked about their fitness for party leader. Among these members, Jeong Chung-rae received an overwhelming 83% support, while Kim Min-seok received only 4%. This shows Jeong's support is very firm among the party's core membership.

Because this survey covered only Democratic Party members rather than the general public, it could have a decisive effect on the intra-party primary. The result is consistent with Jeong's claim that he has the backing of the party's core supporters, and it strengthens the argument that he could win the party leadership.

Many people see Jeong's conduct as calling for 'putting the party before oneself' while in fact pursuing his own interests as 'self-interested politics.'

The most decisive reason for this criticism, according to the analysis, is that Jeong is very aware that he harbors negative public sentiment toward President Lee. In other words, there is a strong view that Jeong is using the fall in President Lee's approval as a political opportunity for himself. This is cited as a cause of internal conflict and division, raising concern that Jeong's conduct could harm party unity.

It was stressed that poll results can vary greatly depending on whom they ask. A nationwide poll, a poll of only Democratic Party supporters, and a poll of only Democratic Party members can each show different results. Reporter Park Dae-yong explained that surveys of people who directly identify as Democratic Party members most accurately reflect the party's internal public opinion.

This suggests that when interpreting poll results, the population surveyed and the survey method must be checked. To avoid the error of mistaking the views of a particular group for those of the general public, or extending the views of certain members to the whole party, it is important to understand the preconditions of an accurate survey.

President Lee Jae-myung's approval was shown to have collapsed sharply in the period right after the local elections in early June. Approval, which stood at 57% just before the election, plunged to 53% the following week and then to 48% the week after, losing about 9 percentage points in two weeks. This decline did not happen all at once but in two stages. The first drop of 4 percentage points occurred in the week the election results came out, so it is somewhat understandable.

However, the cause of the second 4-point drop, which came in the week after the election, has not yet been clearly identified. This unexplained decline may point to multiple underlying problems behind President Lee's approval. It is suggested that factors beyond simple disappointment with the election result may have been at work.

This will be an important point of analysis for the Democratic Party and President Lee's campaign as they design a strategy to recover approval. Only by accurately identifying the cause of the second decline can they prepare practical measures for a rebound.

Therefore, it is necessary to closely analyze what events, statements, or policy issues arose during this period. Causes must be pursued while keeping open a range of possibilities, including supporters' disappointment, internal party conflict, and external factors.

Jeong Chung-rae repeatedly raised the supplementary investigation issue and used it to rally his supporters. This is interpreted as a strategy that went beyond simply asking about likes or dislikes toward the president, using a specific policy issue to strengthen supporter cohesion.

Reporter Park Dae-yong explained that Jeong 'boosted' his supporters through the supplementary investigation power issue. In other words, the issue played an important role in building Jeong's core support base. It is an example showing how much a policy stance can affect rallying supporters in an intra-party contest, and it may also influence the party's main policy direction going forward.

Generally, presidential supporters tend to give positive assessments of overall state management, so it is notable that they chose dissatisfaction with a specific political issue as their biggest complaint. The result suggests that Lee's core supporters expect a firm response to what they see as 'insurrection forces,' and judge that current state management falls short of that expectation.

This strong demand from supporters is expected to have considerable influence on the president's future direction of state management and message-setting. Attention is focused on how much the voices of hardline supporters within the party will be reflected.

Reporter Park Dae-yong pointed to the lack of realism in Jeong Chung-rae's remark that, if he becomes party leader, President Lee's approval would rise by more than 10%, and presented calculations. According to the analysis, for the president's approval to rise by more than 10 percentage points, far more conditions must be met than simply replacing the party leader.

Specifically, if positive evaluations of President Lee among Democratic supporters fully recovered to 96%, the level of last April, overall approval would rise only about 7 percentage points. Adding a jump in the share of respondents supporting the Democratic Party from 46% to 55% would bring the total gain to 14 points, the calculation shows, just clearing the 10-point mark.

Park asserted based on these figures that 'the number does not come from changing one person,' stressing that Jeong's remark lacks realistic grounds and was exaggerated. This suggests that a recovery in President Lee's approval depends on multiple factors and cannot be solved simply by replacing the party leader.

According to the actual data, President Lee's approval began falling first, and stocks only began to drop after surpassing 9,000 points. In other words, the timing clearly runs the other way.

Park stressed that the idea that presidential approval is low because of stock prices is a speculation that is hard to prove objectively. He pointed out that a simple correlation between economic indicators and political approval should not be mistaken for causation. His analysis is that other political and social factors, beyond economic ones, were more likely at work in the decline of President Lee's approval.

Predictions for the outcome were in the 90% range as of August 11, but he explained that Honam's count is expected to settle the outcome at nearly 100%.

He analyzed that the counts in Seoul and Gyeonggi are roughly even or may slightly favor Jeong Chung-rae, making it hard to clearly decide the race there. However, since Honam is the traditional stronghold of the Democratic Party, its results are expected to play a decisive role in either reversing or confirming the overall picture. Therefore, which candidate Honam voters backed more strongly on August 15 will likely be the key point in deciding the next Democratic Party leader.