KOSPI Rebounds After Intra-Day 3% Plunge

On August 31st, the KOSPI market saw 366 rising stocks and 409 falling stocks. The KOSDAQ market recorded 740 rising stocks and 800 falling stocks.

The host commented, "The number of rising stocks is slightly less than falling stocks, but those who watched early trading would know that this gap has significantly narrowed, right?" suggesting that compared to early trading, the number of rising stocks largely recovered, indicating a calming of the market's sharp decline.

In line with this forecast, Samsung Electronics has upwardly adjusted its long-term supply agreement (LTA) targets.

Specifically, the increase in enterprise SSD demand is expected to positively impact the NAND sector. This is attributed to the growth of the data center and enterprise storage markets.

Kim added, "Samsung Electronics itself had an outlook on the market, and they are confident that the memory supply shortage will continuously persist until 2028."

Antitrust concerns were raised as Nvidia halted partnerships with small businesses. Regarding this, Kim Jang-yeol, Researcher, commented, "Antitrust concerns have flared up for Nvidia, which is somewhat negative news from the US market. However, the severity of this negative impact would be less than financial penalties, right? It's not that, so we'll have to wait and see."

He assessed that while it is a negative issue, it is not serious enough to shake Nvidia's fundamentals.

This is interpreted as a de facto recognition of Anthropic's claimed safety principles.

Amazon is known as Anthropic's largest backer, and this delisting is expected to further strengthen Amazon's investment and collaboration with Anthropic. This can be interpreted as a signal of fundamental recovery for big tech stock prices.

Kim Jang-yeol, Researcher, explained, "Anthropic originally asserted that it could not operate without its safety principles. It seems that claim has been practically acknowledged. Amazon is Anthropic's biggest backer."

This is interpreted as a market expectation adjustment process, not a fundamental issue.

He stated, "Even if it gets close to that, I believe big tech investment plans won't change. Only stock prices might fluctuate temporarily."

He added that while stock price volatility may be temporary, demand for buying at low points through the learning curve will be confirmed.

Lee Kwon-hee, Researcher, highlighted the phenomenon where net buying by other corporations appears when individuals, foreigners, and institutions are all selling in KOSPI supply and demand. He explained, "Who did the buying by other corporations? It was Samsung Electronics and Hynix's treasury stock purchases. So, they sold into the treasury stock purchases."

This indicates that treasury stock purchases by major companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were aggregated as net buying by other corporations, playing a role in supporting the index's bottom.

Lee Kwon-hee, Researcher, mentioned that a backwardation phenomenon occurred during intra-day trading, with the basis recording -4 points. He analyzed, "Backwardation occurred. Theoretically, this is the case. So, there's a possibility that the market might fall slightly in early trading tomorrow due due to this."

Backwardation refers to a state where futures prices are lower than spot prices, generally interpreted as a bearish market signal. However, he emphasized the need to ascertain whether this phenomenon is a signal of index decline or a temporary occurrence resulting from foreigners' spot buying and futures selling strategies.

Kim Jang-yeol, Researcher, pointed out that recent trading volume plummeted by approximately 30%, from 140 trillion won to 96 trillion won. He said, "It dropped to 96 trillion, nearly a 30% fall, so there's not much strength left, and foreigners are responding passively, watching the US market and peer groups, aren't they?"

This indicates that the market's energy has been depleted, and foreign investors are also observing trends in the US market and their peer groups, maintaining a passive approach.

He explained, "They announced the revitalization plan. They'll announce the criteria at the exchange, and then it will be implemented starting December or January next year."

This plan is scheduled for implementation starting in December or January next year, and he mentioned the possibility of market funds concentrating on stocks that meet the new criteria.

This large contract also raises expectations for additional orders in the future.

Taiwanese PCB manufacturer Unimicron's stock plunged by 10% due to issues with Chinese raw material usage. Kim Jang-yeol, Researcher, analyzed, "Unimicron, they're a company that makes PCBs. It seems they brought raw materials from China, assembled them, and sold them. Unimicron fell 10%, so who benefits from that? Samsung Electro-Mechanics could benefit."

This suggests that Unimicron's misfortune could lead to a ripple effect, benefiting competitors like Samsung Electro-Mechanics.

This event, directly led by CEO Ryu Jae-cheol, included recruitment briefings for students from prestigious overseas universities such as MIT and Carnegie Mellon.

Foreign investors closed with a net purchase of 360 billion won in the futures market. Lee Kwon-hee, Researcher, analyzed, "Foreigners also boosted spot prices at the end, didn't they? And they maintained their buying in futures, so it seems the market won't be bad tomorrow either."

Foreign futures buying and accompanying spot buying appear to have played a role in limiting downward pressure on the market. However, he added that it is important to check the flow of Nasdaq futures on the next trading day.

This can be interpreted as stabilizing long-term interest rates and reflects the Fed's efforts to provide predictable direction to the market.

Lee Kwon-hee, Researcher, cited the passage of the Clarity Act as the most important variable to watch in the September market. He emphasized, "What I see as more important is actually the passage of the Clarity Act. If they want to be able to move US debt to short-term instruments, that's incredibly important. The biggest event in September is that if that bill doesn't pass, interest rates could jump more than expected."

This bill must be processed simultaneously for the buyback policy to be effective, and he warned that interest rates could surge if it does not pass.