The semiconductor market is positive due to OpenAI's AGI declaration and urgent HBM orders, but large-cap stocks are underperforming market expectations, leading to increasing caution.
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The market currently highly anticipates a freeze in the benchmark interest rate. This consensus appears to already be reflected in market prices. However, if, contrary to market expectations, the benchmark interest rate is unexpectedly raised, it could lead to a temporary decline in the stock market in the short term.
The ideal scenario for semiconductor sector rotation is for large-cap stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to temporarily stagnate while other sectors experience rotation. Subsequently, as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix genuinely rise and drive the index, other sectors might temporarily weaken. This repeated pattern of alternating rises and stagnations, with the entire market moving, is considered the healthiest flow.
Predicting the direction of supply and demand on futures and options expiration day is extremely difficult. Even derivatives departments at various securities firms struggle to accurately grasp the supply and demand direction. They prioritize checking rollover volumes and program trading directions, but still find it difficult to draw clear conclusions about aggregated positions.
This is due to the complex intertwined structure of futures and options and the strategies of various investment entities. While short-term volatility can be high, experts commonly agree that there is insufficient information to determine the overall market direction.
OpenAI unveiled its new AI model Astra and declared that the era of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has arrived, four years after the initial ChatGPT announcement. This signifies the rapid pace of AI technological advancement, and it was announced that an additional 400,000 GPUs are slated for operation. Such large-scale GPU investment is expected to create a new growth narrative leading to an explosive increase in demand for memory semiconductors, especially High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).
Sam Altman of OpenAI expressed deep interest in the development of humanoid robots, emphasizing that completing the 'brain,' or physical AI, to power robots is far more important than building their bodies. He mentioned that humanoid robots are more advantageous because the world is currently designed for humans.
OpenAI's robotics business takes a broad approach, encompassing both data center machines and humanoid robots, suggesting that AI technology will expand to interact with the physical world. Ultimately, AI is expected to create new value not just in software but through its combination with hardware, especially robots.
According to a Citigroup report, rapid changes have been detected in the memory semiconductor market. In particular, urgent orders for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) have significantly increased since August. Additionally, Apple signed a long-term supply contract for NAND flash with no upper limit, securing stable demand in the NAND market.
Spot prices for server DRAM surged to $3,000-$3,600 in August, indicating that the overall memory semiconductor market is not just recovering but entering a steep upward phase. These changes are interpreted as positive signals for the performance improvement of semiconductor manufacturers.
Nomura Securities has presented aggressive target prices of 670,000 won for Samsung Electronics and 4.7 million won for SK Hynix, both leading domestic semiconductor stocks. This is based on a positive assessment that the visibility and stability of performance for the global top 3 memory companies will be maximized. However, it also cited a strong won as a short-term risk, warning that such exchange rate fluctuations could lead to a downward revision of operating profit forecasts.
Stock prices tend to rise significantly when expectations for profit improvement are forming, rather than after corporate profits are fully reflected. Analysis suggests that if stock prices fail to react immediately in a currently good situation, the risk of long-term holding may increase.
Therefore, the stock price trend between October and December, following a short-term adjustment, will be extremely important. The direction of the future market will likely be determined by how large-cap semiconductor stocks react during this period.
Currently, the stock prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix show a valuation gap compared to overseas competitors such as Micron Technology and SanDisk. Analysis suggests that for this 'valuation alignment,' domestic semiconductor stock prices need to rise by at least 6% to 8%. It is pointed out that it is an abnormal phenomenon for domestic semiconductor stock prices not to rise properly when overseas competitors' stock prices are not falling.
Discussions about introducing tokenized securities began 6-7 years ago, but the situation remains stagnant without concrete results. While securities firms have formed project teams and prepared systems for tokenized securities, criticism is being raised that actual business implementation is lacking. There is a strong call for urgent practical system development and business execution rather than declarative slogans.
Tokenized securities are expected to bring a paradigm shift, going beyond existing fragmented investment products like raw materials or real estate to enable the tokenization and trading of stocks, bonds, and funds. This means that while existing stock trading is also a form of fragmented investment, tokenization can create a more advanced market. By allowing investors easy access to various assets with small amounts, it has the potential to change the paradigm of the financial market.
From September 14, aftermarket trading will be expanded on KLX (Koscom Securities System). While the previous NST (Night Stock Trading) system allowed trading of only 604 stocks until 8 PM, KLX will enable trading of all stocks, with some exceptions, until 8 PM. This aims to provide investors with broader trading opportunities, but concerns are also being raised about potentially increasing fatigue for internal staff at securities firms.
AI startup Anthropic is expected to finalize its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in early November after preparation in October, with a valuation of over $2 trillion. Whenever such large IPOs are scheduled, concerns about a 'demand black hole' phenomenon arise in the market. However, historical cases like the SpaceX IPO show a temporary drop in demand just before listing, followed by a rebound.
Therefore, while discussions about a demand black hole are expected to resurface around late October, it is important to develop market strategies and responses in consideration of the IPO schedule rather than excessive worry. Large IPOs can cause short-term market volatility, but their long-term impact on market trends may differ.
Currently, a positive atmosphere is forming in the semiconductor market, but the rise of large-cap stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is somewhat weaker than market expectations. In contrast, relatively strong demand is observed flowing into semiconductor equipment-related stocks and robot-related stocks.
This suggests that investors are focusing more on individual theme stocks than large caps. However, analysis indicates that for the entire market to move with strong buying momentum, the trend of large-cap semiconductor stocks must ultimately be robust. If large caps fail to lead the market, overall upward momentum will inevitably be limited.
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