Drones Change the Face of War: Russia on the Brink of Defeat

The Russia-Ukraine war is currently on the verge of transitioning to fully autonomous robotic warfare. It is showing a new pattern of warfare dominated by drones and AI, which represents a civilizational turning point in war. Although human control has not yet completely disappeared, the role of drones and AI is gradually expanding, undergoing a transitional period of autonomization.

In anticipation of communication difficulties due to electronic jamming in war, wired tactics are being used where drones are connected by cables like fiber optics. This is an attempt to overcome communication problems by combining primitive wired connections with the latest drone technology. It is a strategy to stably operate drones even when wireless communication becomes impossible due to electronic jamming.

Drones equipped with AI chips can autonomously make decisions to precisely strike critical infrastructure. They utilize terrain recognition chips to independently identify and attack the weak points of targets. For example, when attacking Russian oil refineries, military factories, or logistics hubs, they go beyond simple bombing to target parts that are difficult to repair, such as distillation units in oil facilities. These AI drones are inflicting significant damage on key Russian facilities in the Ukraine war.

Swarm drone technology has advanced to a stage where thousands of drones can fly without colliding and attack targets. In the past, drones were launched in small numbers, but now the scale has increased to hundreds and thousands. These swarm drones are entering the stage of fully autonomous weapons, operating with minimal human intervention, making independent decisions, and carrying out operations, which is significantly changing the nature of warfare.

Russian President Putin has ordered the complete capture of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine by the end of the year. This is seen as an outdated military strategy disconnected from the rapidly changing AI warfare environment. Such reckless operational orders are leading to unnecessary troop deployments and massive casualties for the Russian army. Directives that fail to recognize the changes in modern warfare are forcing meaningless sacrifices, putting soldiers' lives at risk.

According to Russian casualty statistics, out of 260,000 total casualties, 160,000 were reported as deaths. This is the first time in human history that the number of soldiers killed has exceeded the number of wounded. Within a drone 'kill zone,' soldiers find it difficult to survive, and even if injured, it is extremely difficult to retrieve them, leading to this pattern. This shows that the lethal capability of drones is fundamentally changing casualty patterns.

Ukraine's First-Person View (FPV) drones track enemy soldiers into buildings for suicide attacks, exposing soldiers to ultra-short-term kills where they lock eyes with the drone just before death. The time from detection to elimination is as short as about 3 seconds. Furthermore, the proliferation of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV) is accelerating the lethality of ground warfare. The combination of FPV drones and UGVs creates an extremely dangerous environment for soldiers on the battlefield.

With increased transparency of battlefield information, large-scale troop concentrations have become virtually impossible. Within kill zones where drones and ground robots are deployed, it is difficult for anyone to survive, and even if casualties occur, the risk of additional harm during rescue operations increases, leading to more cases of wounded being abandoned. This is also having a severe impact on the humanitarian aspects of warfare.

North Korean troops recently deployed to Russia are changing their tactics to counter drone attacks. They are deploying forces in groups of four, with one acting as bait to lure drones, while the remaining troops maneuver. This is analyzed as a desperate measure to evade drone detection and attacks and increase survival rates.

The core of modern warfare is shifting from hardware to software, as AI algorithm weapons are being integrated with the new trend of drones. As mentioned in the book by Palantir CEO Alex Karp, it is argued that deterrents like nuclear weapons will come from software in the future. The outcome of war is now determined by technological superiority and algorithmic advantage.

Ukraine has adopted the Delta system, dramatically shortening the Kill Chain cycle. The decision-making loop, which previously took hours from target acquisition to strike, can now be processed in minutes. This means that machine judgment speed has surpassed human control. With decisions made at speeds humans cannot possibly keep up with, the battlefield's reaction speed has become extremely fast.

Drones are emerging as key assets in asymmetric warfare, with their performance steadily improving and prices falling. The unit cost of drones has now dropped to between $5,000 and $10,000, enabling low-cost mass production. Drones with integrated reconnaissance, attack, and suicide functions demonstrate high efficiency on the battlefield, and Russia has established a system for mass-producing Geran drones. These drones are becoming a major factor in changing the course of warfare.

Expensive air defense assets like Patriot and THAAD missiles are proving inefficient in the cost-effectiveness war against drones. It costs $8 million to intercept a single drone by firing two missiles, each costing $4 million. As a result, inventories of high-cost defense assets are being rapidly depleted, which could limit future war-fighting capabilities. The argument is now being made that expensive defense assets alone are insufficient to counter drone attacks.