Xi Jinping Faces Japan's Toughest Stance

Relations between Japan and China have entered a significantly more sensitive phase, with military aircraft, warships, and competing security strategies increasingly shaping a rivalry once primarily managed through diplomatic warnings. Frequent military operations in the East China Sea, around Taiwan, and near Japan's southwestern islands are contributing to this tension.

This heightened activity brings a rising risk of miscalculation, whether through inadvertent radar signals or aggressive maneuvers in increasingly crowded maritime and air spaces.

In December 2025, Japan reported two separate incidents where Chinese J-15 fighters, operating from the Liaoning aircraft carrier, allegedly targeted Japanese F-15s with fire-control radar over international waters southeast of Okinawa. The first encounter occurred at 4:32 p.m. and lasted for three minutes.

A second incident followed between 6:37 p.m. and 7:08 p.m. on the same day, further escalating the dispute between the two nations.

Beijing strongly refuted Japan's account of the December 2025 radar incidents, arguing that Japanese aircraft had approached and interfered with a previously announced Chinese naval aviation exercise. Chinese officials claimed their operations were conducted entirely in international waters.

However, Japan maintained that it had not received adequate prior notice for the declared training area, leading to a dispute over whether the F-15s were indeed targeted by fire-control radar.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara, who continues in his position in the Takaichi government in August 2026, rejected China's accusations regarding the radar incidents. Kihara affirmed Japan's intent to maintain a firm surveillance stance around its territory.

He emphasized that Tokyo did not intend to reduce its surveillance activities, balancing this resolve with efforts to prevent uncontrolled escalation in the region.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has adopted a notably firm position on the issue of Taiwan, intensifying diplomatic friction with Beijing. Her comments in late 2025, stating that certain circumstances surrounding a Chinese attack on Taiwan could create a situation threatening Japan's survival, triggered an intense diplomatic reaction from Beijing.

Beijing demanded a retraction of her remarks, underscoring the sensitivity of the issue, especially given that Taiwan lies approximately 100 kilometers from Japanese territory.

On December 9th, Japanese forces detected a significant joint Chinese-Russian air operation around Japan, signaling deepening strategic coordination between the two nations. Two Russian TU-95 strategic bombers joined two Chinese H-6 bombers over the East China Sea.

The aircraft subsequently flew toward the Pacific Ocean off Shikoku, demonstrating a coordinated presence in a strategically sensitive area.

Days after the joint China-Russia air operation, the United States and Japan demonstrated their military coordination through a bilateral exercise over the Sea of Japan. This exercise involved two American B-52 strategic bombers flying alongside three Japanese F-35 stealth fighters and three F-15 fighters.

The drill was designed to clearly demonstrate readiness and cooperation between the two allies in response to regional tensions. The combined presence of strategic bombers and advanced fighter jets underscored their commitment to security in the Indo-Pacific.