Ukraine War: Relying on Korean Weapons and Fuel?

Professor Kim Jong-dae stated that North Korea has recently dispatched laborers to Russia and supplied a large quantity of ballistic missiles. This support from North Korea is contributing to Russia's ability to sustain its war efforts. Professor Kim Jong-dae said, "North Korea has recently dispatched laborers and supplied a large quantity of ballistic missiles."

Ukrainian forces are continuously attacking Russian oil refining facilities using drones. This has paralyzed fuel and energy supplies in major Russian cities. Professor Kim Jong-dae explained, "Ukrainian drones have continuously attacked oil refining facilities. When fuel and energy supplies in Russian cities became paralyzed, they decided to purchase from South Korea."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia is pushing for the additional deployment of 30,000 North Korean troops. This suggests that Russia is seeking support from its ally North Korea to address troop shortages due to the prolonged war. Professor Kim Jong-dae mentioned, "President Zelenskyy stated that Russia is pushing for the additional deployment of 30,000 North Korean troops."

The war in Ukraine has exposed a fundamental problem for the Russian military: paralyzed mobility. While the Russian military's offensive capability remains strong, the risk of tanks and armored vehicles being annihilated immediately if deployed has increased due to Ukrainian drone reconnaissance and attacks. Professor Kim Jong-dae pointed out that a war of attrition continues where advancing just 0.3 km a day is barely possible even with concentrated firepower, explaining, "If tanks and armored vehicles are deployed in the war, it's annihilation. They are immediately hit by drone attacks. ... Advancing 0.3 km a day is barely possible even with concentrated firepower."

Kim Yo Jong, Vice Department Director of the Workers' Party of Korea, dismissed President Zelenskyy's claims of 30,000 North Korean troops being deployed, stating she was unaware of it and that it was Kyiv's fake news. Professor Kim Jong-dae conveyed, "Kim Yo Jong, Vice Department Director of the Workers' Party, said she was unaware. That it was Kyiv's fake news. She dismissed it like that."

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared victory in a short-term war of attrition and stated that Russia would transition to a wartime state, strengthening its system. This implies expanding youth conscription and mobilizing 부족한 troops, with at least 300,000 additional mobilizations needed. Professor Kim Jong-dae explained, "Russia is going to transition to a wartime mobilization system to conclude this anti-fascist war with victory. ... By strengthening Russia's system into a wartime state, ... they mean to conscript young people. It means mobilizing the 부족한 troops."

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, over 1 million casualties have occurred, a horrific level that is nine times the total number of Soviet soldiers killed in all wars worldwide during the Cold War. Professor Kim Jong-dae likened this war to a 'meat grinder,' criticizing that the madness continues despite the war 'grinding' human lives. He emphasized, "Since the war, there have been over 1 million casualties, which is nine times the total number of Soviet soldiers killed in all wars worldwide during the Cold War. ... Even after fighting a war that is completely like a meat grinder, this war's madness does not stop."

Attacks by unmanned surface vessels (sea drones) mobilized by Ukraine have inflicted near-devastating damage on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. As a result, the occupied territory of Crimea is virtually isolated. Professor Kim Jong-dae said, "Ukraine mobilized and inflicted near-devastating damage on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and the occupied territory of Crimea is also almost isolated."

Russia is continuing its reckless offensive in retaliation for Ukraine's strikes on its oil and industrial facilities. In response, North Korea has been involved in the war since last year, deploying approximately 14,000 special forces to Russia's Kursk region, and recently, along with dispatching laborers, it has supplied a large quantity of North Korean ballistic missiles such as the KN-23. North Korea's military support is significantly impacting Russia's war-fighting capabilities. Professor Kim Jong-dae explained, "North Korea initially, since last year, deployed about 14,000 special forces to Russia's Kursk region and has been fighting in that war, but recently they have also dispatched laborers and supplied a large quantity of ballistic missiles."

Due to the war in Ukraine and the war with Iran, the U.S. has nearly depleted its stockpiles of not only defensive weapons like Patriot and THAAD but also offensive weapons such as Tomahawk missiles and air-to-ground missiles. With weapon replenishment expected to take at least 4-5 years, Ukraine's defense system is virtually defenseless against Russian air raids. Professor Kim Jong-dae stated, "Due to the war in Ukraine, there were already insufficient stockpiles, but they were all used up in the war with Iran. As a result, there are no defensive weapons like Patriot and THAAD, and offensive weapons like Tomahawk missiles and air-to-ground missiles are also nearly out of stock."

As gaps emerge in Ukraine's air defense due to dwindling U.S. weapon stockpiles, Ukraine is showing great interest in South Korea's Cheongung series, which is effective for low-altitude defense. The Cheongung-II is specialized for intercepting targets at an altitude of 15 km and is evaluated as superior in terms of cost-effectiveness and effectiveness compared to U.S.-made Patriot missiles. Professor Kim Jong-dae stated, "For low-altitude defense, Korean Cheongung series weapons can actually be more effective than U.S.-made defensive weapons. They are very desperately wanting these weapons, and Ukrainian people have visited production factories like our LIG Nex1 several times."

With about 40% of Russia's oil refineries damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks, Russia is experiencing a bottleneck where it has plenty of crude oil but insufficient refining capacity. As a result, fuel and energy supplies in Russian cities were paralyzed, leading Russia to import civilian commercial diesel and jet fuel produced in South Korea. Professor Kim Jong-dae explained, "Russia has a lot of crude oil. But it can't refine it. A bottleneck occurred here. As fuel and energy supplies in Russian cities became paralyzed, they decided to buy from nearby South Korea."

South Korean diesel and jet fuel exported to Russia are not subject to sanctions against Russia, making their export possible. These items are classified as daily necessities and are excluded from multilateral sanction lists. Furthermore, transactions are made between civilian companies, not military enterprises, allowing them to circumvent the sanction network. Professor Kim Jong-dae stated that about 30,000 tons of petroleum products loaded in Ulsan are being exported to Russia. He added, "These are not prohibited items under Russia sanctions. These are classified as daily necessities, so they are excluded from the multilateral list. If a civilian company comes and buys these products, they are not subject to sanctions."