Foreign Investor Supply-Demand Inflection Point Hinges on Samsung Electronics' Earnings

Foreign investors recently showed a reduction in selling intensity by net purchasing over 1 trillion won in the futures market.

SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics' share buybacks are helping to absorb accumulated selling pressure in the market.

Experts foresee mid-October, with Samsung Electronics' provisional earnings announcement and the completion of SK Hynix's share buyback, as important inflection points for changes in foreign investor supply and demand.

The third-quarter operating profit outlook for the semiconductor industry has been lowered from the 120 trillion won range to the early 100 trillion won range due to factors such as exchange rates.

The semiconductor industry's Q3 operating profit forecast has been lowered from the 120 trillion won range to the early 100 trillion won range due to exchange rate effects.

Team Leader Hwang Yoo-hyun analyzed that the climax of foreign selling was concentrated in May and June, with the intensity of selling weakening in July and August.

This year, foreign investors sold over 210 trillion won in the domestic market, but a full-fledged return to spot buying requires the stabilization of external macro variables such as interest rates and oil prices.

The core of foreign capital inflow is whether Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are purchased, but a market rally driven solely by large-cap semiconductor stocks, as in the past, is difficult to expect yet.

A change in large-cap stock supply and demand should be confirmed with Samsung Electronics' provisional earnings announcement as an inflection point; until then, a sobujang-focused return play is expected to be strong.

While the KOSPI index has now recovered to normal levels, the recent recording of 4.3% for the U.S. 10-year yield and 4.7% for the 30-year yield is burdening the market.

Inflation indicators such as the ISM Services Price Index at 74 and Manufacturing Price Index at 77.9 continue to surge, indicating persistent pressure for interest rate hikes.

In a high-interest rate environment, valuation rerating is difficult, so an investment strategy focusing on companies that can withstand through performance and profits, i.e., those with high cash generation capabilities, is necessary.

While traditional memory manufacturers' stocks have performed relatively poorly, global semiconductor equipment stocks like Tokyo Electron and Advantest are hitting historical highs.

As market confidence in global semiconductor expansion grows, funds are increasingly flowing into equipment stocks.

Advantest Japan's new high signals the full-fledged start of the sobujang cycle, and Jusung Engineering's entry into the top ranks of KOSDAQ market capitalization indicates a significant change in supply and demand.

Advantest Japan's new high is interpreted as a signal of the full-fledged sobujang cycle, and Jusung Engineering's entry into the top ranks of KOSDAQ market capitalization holds significant meaning for supply and demand.

It is important to maintain a certain proportion of large-cap stocks, as external conditions can improve at any time, causing large-caps to surge; portfolio weighting adjustments in Q4 will determine the return differential.

Sobujang stocks have strong upward momentum but also considerable corrections, so it is advisable to avoid concentrating assets.

Given that sobujang stocks show strong upward momentum but also significant corrections, it is advisable to avoid concentrating assets solely on sobujang investments.

Sobu Jang value chain stocks are deemed suitable for quick return plays rather than sustained upward trends.

Some sobujang companies, such as Samsung Electro-Mechanics, are already reflecting 2028 profits, increasing their valuation appeal.

Interest rate increases due to bond issuance by hyperscalers ultimately lead to semiconductor orders, so high long-term interest rates do not necessarily act as a negative for the memory semiconductor market.

It is evaluated that a company's fundamental performance is more important than temporary supply-demand adjustments. The controversy over SK Group's holding company valuation and SK Hynix's stock price are not directly related.

While temporary supply-demand adjustments may occur, experts emphasize that a company's fundamental performance is more crucial.

Demand for test companies is surging due to semiconductor miniaturization and the increasing complexity of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) technology.

Domestic post-processing test companies such as ISC (general-purpose memory test sockets) and Leeno Industrial (customized chip test sockets) are gaining attention as they possess related technologies.

The stock prices of equipment and component companies are being recognized in the market for their technological prowess and growth potential, even in a high-interest rate environment.

Market supply and demand are analyzed to be in the early stages of flowing into small and medium-sized semiconductor stocks.

A strategy of approaching small and medium-sized semiconductor sobujang stocks until the end of the year, with thorough risk management, is effective.

Doosan's stock price adjustment was due to market reactions to concerns about China's optical module regulations and copper foil issues, but the impact on Doosan's products is minimal.

Doosan Electronics accounts for 12% of consolidated revenue but contributes over 40% of operating profit, with current factory utilization reaching 100%.

While Taiwanese competitor EMC hits new highs and CCL supply shortages persist, Doosan plans to expand its production capacity based on sales from 2.6 trillion won to 7 trillion won by 2029.

Director Lee Chang-hwan advises that individual investors may find it difficult to withstand the high volatility of security stocks, suggesting a strategy of pre-purchase followed by short-term trading.

Security stocks like Genians, Raonsecure, and S&S Tech have high volatility, so chasing them should be avoided; it is recommended to maintain small positions and sell half upon sharp rises.

AhnLab, fueled by news of large-scale security investments, is showing new highs and is evaluated as a relatively stable company in terms of its market standing.

Saudi Arabia's oil supply price cut has led to a strong market sentiment of selling refinery stocks and buying semiconductor sobujang stocks.

Team Leader Hwang Yoo-hyun expects oil prices to gradually decline, which is positive for interest rate stability but a burden for refinery stocks, thus offering a neutral opinion.

Signals of crude oil supply normalization, such as China's potential restrictions on diesel and jet fuel exports and the G7's release of strategic petroleum reserves, are emerging, increasing the burden for new entries. Even with strong refining margins, inventory profits dictate performance, so investors must verify this.

Signals of crude oil supply normalization, such as the G7's release of strategic petroleum reserves and Saudi Aramco's downward adjustment of Asian crude oil prices, are appearing, making it burdensome to newly enter refinery stocks at this juncture.