Morgan Stanley Forecasts Significant Tesla Semi Profits

This is a high level, reaching 120 to 180 times the monthly $100 FSD (Full Self-Driving) subscription fee for regular passenger cars.

Morgan Stanley explained that the Semi's revenue model involves charging $0.85 to $1 per mile, depending on the distance traveled. Based on these estimates, if 82,000 Tesla Semis are operational in 2040, annual revenue is projected to reach $17 billion, or approximately 22.8 trillion KRW.

Autonomous electric trucks are expected to generate approximately $202,000 (about 270 million KRW) in annual profit, which is 5.5 times higher than the $37,000 (about 49.6 million KRW) annual profit of human-driven diesel trucks.

This difference in profitability primarily stems from the elimination of labor costs, fuel cost savings, and reduced insurance premiums. When autonomous driving technology is commercialized, trucks can operate without drivers, eliminating labor expenses, and electric power is cheaper than diesel, significantly lowering operating costs.

Criticism has been raised that Morgan Stanley's profit estimation model does not consider realistic legal regulations. Morgan Stanley assumed that one truck would travel 18,000 miles per month, or approximately 210,000 miles (about 340,000 km) per year.

This assumption is based on continuous operation 30 days a month without weekends, driving 87 hours per week. This violates the US federal transportation regulations of a maximum of 11 hours of driving per day and 70 hours over an 8-day period, drawing criticism for being an optimistic prediction that ignores legal constraints.

Tesla announced the launch of the Semi in the European market via its official account. The European Semi will have a gross vehicle weight of 40 tons and a range of 550 km (standard range class), with separate headlights adapted to European charging standards.

Tesla plans to reveal detailed European specifications and launch schedule at the IAA stage next week, with customer deliveries in Europe beginning in 2027. However, Europe has stricter driving hour regulations (9 hours per day) than the US, which is expected to pose additional difficulties for applying Morgan Stanley's profit model.

The mandatory 45-minute rest period in Europe could be an opportunity to efficiently utilize the Tesla Semi's charging time. Currently, Tesla Semi trucks exported to Europe can charge 60% of their battery in 30 minutes, and a 45-minute charge can replenish a significant amount, meaning virtually no time is lost due to charging.

However, this is an advantage at the current stage where autonomous driving technology is not yet fully implemented. If autonomous driving is successfully implemented and the driver's mandatory rest time is eliminated, waiting time during charging could shift from simple rest to a cost loss. This suggests that the efficiency of charging time could vary depending on the completeness of autonomous driving technology.

Tesla plans to produce 50,000 Semis annually at its 480,000 pyeong (approximately 395 acres) factory. Elon Musk expects full autonomous driving capabilities for the Semi to be implemented in late 2026 to early 2027.

While the Semi's contribution to overall vehicle sales this year is expected to be minimal, Tesla aims to increase long-term corporate value by focusing on autonomous driving service revenue beyond mere vehicle sales. The formula of increased sales leading to revenue, and increased revenue leading to stock price appreciation, is expected to apply to the Semi as well.