President Lee Jae-myung's Approval Hits 43.4% Low as Analysts Point to Deepening 'Party-Presidency Decoupling'

Disapproval rose to 53.0%, widening the gap with positive ratings to 9.7 points. This is the lowest approval figure since Lee took office.

The drop is said to be especially pronounced in Seoul and among older voters. Analysts interpret these factors as having combined to drive the overall decline.

He warned that if the party denies its own identity, core supporters will turn away immediately. Kim urged the party and presidential office to take the problem seriously after the convention, arguing that maintaining the Democratic Party's identity is essential and that diluting it to expand toward the center will accelerate the loss of supporters.

Also included in his support base are the so-called "Munpa" group, who previously backed Lee Nak-yon and even Yoon Suk-yeol. This suggests Chung's support base spans a broad spectrum.

Kim Eo-jun argued that the president has lost the party's identity, driving away core supporters, but counterarguments have also been raised. One analysis holds that as the core of the democratic progressive camp shifts from pro-Moon forces to pro-Lee forces, pro-Moon and Lee Nak-yon factions are withdrawing support for the president in protest. This is interpreted as the growing pains of an unavoidable leadership transition within the democratic progressive forces.

Some have argued that for the Democratic Party to succeed, moving toward strengthening its identity, as Kim Eo-jun suggests, could isolate the party from the center. This is seen as the scenario the People Power Party most wants ahead of next year's general election. The view put forward is that continuing Lee Jae-myung's approach of expanding outreach to the center would serve the Democratic Party better.

Kim Eo-jun, who first pointed to early signs of decoupling between the president and the party a month and a half ago, stressed that it has now clearly deepened. He noted that in Realmeter's poll, Democratic Party support stood at 44.6% while presidential approval was 43.3%. He added that his own poll also showed presidential approval at a record low of 53.8%, slightly above Democratic Party support of 47.9%, mirroring the Realmeter result. Kim warned that core supporters continue to leave and that after the convention the party and presidential office must take the problem seriously. He said daily Realmeter polling had fallen to 41%, raising concern that it could slip into the 30s.

The message is read as one aimed at the presidential office: rather than a rapid shift to pro-Lee leadership, it calls for moderating the pace of change within the democratic progressive camp while still giving weight to pro-Moon forces. In this reading, it is a strategy by pro-Moon factions to protect their position during the party's leadership transition.

Kim Eo-jun stressed that even if approval dips somewhat, the president should do his job, and the ruling party should likewise do what it must.

He believes telephone-interview polls from polling firms are likely to match the actual convention outcome, suggesting this method better reflects the characteristics of Chung's supporters.

In a survey combining Democratic Party supporters and unaffiliated voters, candidates Kim Min-seok and Chung Chung-rae polled similarly, but critics say the regional samples are too thin to be trusted. The point is that the sample size is too small to discuss candidate support by region in detail.

Criticism continued that the sample size in each region is too small to be reliable. Seoul had 103 samples and Incheon-Gyeonggi had 200, while the Gwangju-Jeolla region had only 79. Critics argue it is not valid to statistically discuss candidate support in a specific region with such small samples. In other words, without representative samples, the accuracy of the results is open to question.

By contrast, the ARS poll's "none" rate was just 8%, which led to its results being judged more meaningful.

Such a discrepancy casts doubt on the poll's reliability, and some argue it has no meaning. The judgment is that the ARS method makes it hard to accurately gauge the actual support trends among party members.

This means reshaping results to fit a particular agenda rather than objective data analysis. The point raises questions about the neutrality of the polling organization.

Instead, it favored telephone-interview polls and tended to focus its analysis on that method.

Critics also said media outlets that report such results uncritically are equally deplorable, raising questions about both the statistical significance of polls and the responsibility of press coverage.

When the sample was narrowed to Democratic Party supporters and unaffiliated voters, candidate Kim Min-seok led Chung Chung-rae by nearly 18 percentage points. Combining the support for Song Young-gil and Kim Min-seok comes close to 60%, roughly double the figure for Chung. The result was regarded as largely reflecting current opinion in Honam.

Weak support in Honam is analyzed as likely to significantly reduce Chung's chances regardless of results in the Seoul-Gyeonggi area. The point emphasizes that Honam public opinion is a key variable in the leadership election.

Recalling the 2021 Democratic presidential primary, when votes surged to Lee Nak-yon in the final Seoul results, a warning was issued that similar outside interference cannot be ruled out now. Even with a commanding lead in Honam, there is a possibility of late, bloc-style votes in the Seoul-Gyeonggi area driven by outside forces such as the Shincheonji group, and the party was urged to remain vigilant.