Chumiae-Lee Jae-myung Conflict Intensifies, Internal Strife in Democratic Party

A petition movement assuming former Minister Choo Mi-ae as Gyeonggi Governor for her resignation has surged, with a record number of approximately 10,000 participants. This petition movement is reportedly sparked by former Minister Choo Mi-ae's strong criticism of Representative Lee Jae-myung, referring to him as 'forces of rebellion'.

Former Minister Choo Mi-ae directly criticized Representative Lee Jae-myung at a memorial for democracy movement victims, using strong language like 'forces of rebellion.' Such remarks suggest a crack in the support base within the Democratic Party, beyond just personal opinions, revealing an intensifying power struggle within the party.

Former Minister Choo Mi-ae criticized Representative Lee Jae-myung, complaining that Gyeonggi Province's debt is excessively high, making provincial administration difficult. She emphasized that Gyeonggi Province's debt surged during former Governor Lee Jae-myung's tenure, compared to the times of former Governors Kim Moon-soo and Nam Kyung-pil.

Former Minister Choo Mi-ae was the only metropolitan council head from the Democratic Party to openly support Representative Jeong Cheong-rae. This is interpreted as an attempt to prove her electoral power in the Seoul metropolitan area and consolidate strong supporters, as part of her efforts to gather forces for the next presidential election.

Disenchantment with Representative Lee Jae-myung within the Democratic Party is accelerating, and this phenomenon is observed not only among centrist undecided voters but also within the progressive camp. The disappointment of core supporters is attributed to issues with his stance during judicial reform and the exclusion of old guard by new Lee Jae-myung forces, which are identified as causes of the conflict. This internal division is a major factor weakening Representative Lee Jae-myung's support base.

Representative Lee Jae-myung responded via social media, targeting forces obstructing reform. He quoted former Progressive Party Deputy Spokesperson Park Tae-hoon's writing, emphasizing that he has never abandoned the goals and values of reform. Representative Lee Jae-myung criticized that the biggest obstacle to reform is blocking reform in the name of reform, defining those who criticize him as forces obstructing reform. This is interpreted as a counterattack against criticism of himself and an attempt to bring to the surface the conflict between reformist and non-reformist forces within the party.

Strong supporters who strongly backed the Democratic Party and Representative Lee Jae-myung, especially those in their early 40s, 50s, and 60s, are showing strong signs of disenchantment. Failures in real estate policy and incidents related to the Ministry of Patriots and Veterans Affairs are cited as major reasons for this decline in approval ratings.

Former Minister Choo Mi-ae's remark, 'Do not compromise with the prosecution,' is spreading as a popular post in online communities. This remark contains the argument that Representative Lee Jae-myung should not compromise with the prosecution as he is the biggest victim of the prosecution, and it is eliciting public reaction to the claim that prosecutorial reform has regressed compared to the Moon Jae-in administration.

Currently, the Gyeonggi Provincial government is pushing to suspend welfare and veterans' projects, such as postnatal care support, citing budget shortages. This decision is feared not only to reduce welfare benefits for Gyeonggi residents but also to impose an administrative burden on frontline civil servants in local autonomous bodies.

The Democratic Party's approval rating among those in their late teens to 20s recorded 15%, lower even than Representative Lee Jae-myung's individual approval rating. This is analyzed as a result of accumulated political fatigue among young people due to central political conflicts.

Representative Yoon Kun-young, a close associate of former President Moon Jae-in, warned Representative Lee Jae-myung not to try to defeat the people and urged him to deliver a public message. Representative Yoon argued that Lee Jae-myung must personally explain to the public in his own voice about the issues of indictment withdrawal and constitutional amendment for re-election. This is interpreted as advice to Representative Lee Jae-myung not to repeat the same mistakes, based on past experiences of losing power due to a lack of communication with the public.

In a situation where the appointment of candidate Kim Seung-won is being pushed through, the effectiveness of a reform message in the form of a public address is questionable. It is pointed out that only strong remarks, reaching 120% of what the public desires, can make the public believe and feel change.

Former candidate Yong Hye-in's resignation statement, which seemed to imply 'I am resigning because the Democratic Party told me to,' sparked controversy over a lack of political judgment. This is considered a retirement message that burdens the appointing authority and is evaluated as a case of political failure.

Following Representative Yong Hye-in's resignation, there have been calls for a comprehensive review of the personnel system. It is unusual for the leader of the ruling party to directly demand the resignation of a ministerial candidate; typically, a quiet resignation through political channels is customary. This process has led to an analysis of the political background of Yong Hye-in's resignation.

Former candidate Yong Hye-in's resignation message can be interpreted as a political signal to the Blue House rather than an attempt to soothe public opinion. It is read as a message demanding guarantees for nominations in the next general election and election alliances, and is analyzed in conjunction with the Democratic Party's remarks about strengthening its alliance with the Basic Income Party.

The Democratic Party failed to issue a message accepting public opinion regarding Yong Hye-in's resignation. By shifting blame to the media and the People Power Party, it appeared unrepentant, leading to political failure. This is evaluated as counterproductive in a situation where a message of heeding public opinion should have been delivered.

Representative Kim Min-seok aimed a remark at former Minister Choo Mi-ae, saying, 'Because of you, we could be impeached like Roh Moo-hyun.' This reminded Choo Mi-ae of her actions during the impeachment of former President Roh Moo-hyun, touching upon her political Achilles' heel, and revealing the complex past relationship between Representative Kim Min-seok and former Minister Choo Mi-ae.

Former Minister Choo Mi-ae was referred to by the nickname 'Mother of Conservatives.' This came up when discussing instances where former Minister Choo Mi-ae's political actions ultimately benefited the conservative camp. Examples include the Druking special prosecutor investigation and her contribution to the birth of the Yoon Suk-yeol government.