Interest Rate Hike Period, Stock Market Sensitivity Increases… What are the Investment Strategies for Alteogen, Doosan Enerbility, and Simtek?

Doosan Enerbility, a leader in nuclear power and gas turbines within KOSPI 200, is receiving positive market signals with continuous reports of gas turbine shortages from the US. Shin Gwang-seop, MBN Gold Manager, explained the current stock price trend, saying, “Yesterday, when there was a moderate dip, I saw it as a buying opportunity, but despite good news, it's not gaining traction in the market.” The possibility of support at the late July low is considered high, suggesting that a dip-buying strategy remains valid.

In a stock market sensitive to interest rates, recent rate hikes are exerting overall downward pressure on all stocks. Major sectors such as biotech, secondary batteries, and semiconductors are showing overall weakness, reaffirming the stock price sensitivity to interest rates. Manager Shin Gwang-seop noted, “Whatever the stock, the sensitive side to interest rates is equities, and among these, it's somewhat holding up well.” He highlighted the phenomenon where rising interest rates precede rising oil prices.

The stop-loss line for Doosan Enerbility is 69,000 won; if it does not fall below this on a closing basis, the possibility of breaking the late July low is considered low. Manager Shin Gwang-seop advised, “The 69,000 won line, if it doesn't break below it on a closing basis, I believe the late July low is the bottom, and we should continue to hold it up to 100,000 won.” This suggests that holding a strategy up to 100,000 won from the current price level is effective.

Recently, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to the 4.7% range, and Brent crude prices have touched $93, clearly showing a synchronization phenomenon between interest rates and oil prices. Manager Shin Gwang-seop explained, “When interest rates go up, oil prices also go up these days,” indicating that rising interest rates show a leading effect in pushing up oil prices. These macroeconomic indicators are contributing factors to increased overall market volatility.

During periods of rising interest rates, investor sentiment for safe assets strengthens, leading to a deepening shift towards large-cap stocks, financial holding companies, and insurance stocks. Foreign investors tend to maintain buying centered on electronics, which aligns with the phenomenon of stock prices rising in tandem with interest rates. Manager Shin Gwang-seop pointed out, “When interest rates rise, stock prices rise, and also large semiconductor stocks, including electronics. But actually, even Samsung Electro-Mechanics is down today,” emphasizing that some large-cap stocks are not exceptions.

The KOSDAQ market is experiencing an overall downturn due to the synchronized decline of interest rate-sensitive sectors. In particular, stocks sensitive to interest rates, such as biotech, robotics, and secondary batteries, are struggling, often failing to rebound despite individual positive news due to macroeconomic variables. Manager Shin Gwang-seop explained, “Since interest rates are sensitive, what would be the sensitive side? Biotech. I said there are two sectors when measuring interest rate sensitivity: the first is biotech,” referring to the 'pull-down' effect among KOSDAQ component stocks.

The future direction of the biotech sector is expected to largely depend on Moderna's mRNA vaccine clinical data to be presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) in October. Alteogen, as a leading Korean biotech company, has a critical role in driving market trends. Manager Shin Gwang-seop emphasized Alteogen's importance, stating, “Who is the leader in biotech right now? Alteogen.” Attention is focused on whether Moderna's mRNA vaccine clinical outcomes will positively influence Korean biotech stocks as a whole.

The importance of detailed mRNA vaccine data to be presented at ESMO (European Society for Medical Oncology) in Madrid, Spain, in mid-October is being highlighted. Specifically, if the HR (Hazard Ratio) value is recorded below 0.6, indicating a significant reduction in risk, the commercialization potential of mRNA vaccines is expected to increase substantially. Manager Shin Gwang-seop explained, “If the detailed data comes out below 0.6, the mRNA cancer vaccine developed in collaboration with Moderna can be produced immediately.”

The key condition for the biotech sector to transition to an uptrend hinges on the results of the detailed mRNA vaccine data from Moderna and Merck, which will be presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology in October. Manager Shin Gwang-seop emphasized, “The condition for biotech to enter an uptrend is whether the detailed data for the mRNA vaccine from Moderna and Merck, directly linked to Alteogen, will be good or bad at the October European Society for Medical Oncology.” Investors must carefully decide whether to pre-purchase in anticipation of the data release or to wait for confirmation, and should also be wary of volatility caused by interest rate fluctuations.

The fundamentals of the semiconductor sector are confirmed to be robust, with semiconductor shipments exploding nearly threefold since August 10th. Manager Shin Gwang-seop explained, “Checking the data from August 10th onwards shows that semiconductor shipments have accelerated quite explosively,” suggesting that despite macroeconomic conditions, the health of the semiconductor industry itself is not in question.

Currently, reliability issues are being raised in the interest rate market due to government intervention, with JPMorgan expressing criticism of government involvement in financial markets. There is also a projection that if interest rates rise further from current levels, the Trump administration may pressure financial markets. Manager Shin Gwang-seop stated, “If interest rates rise further from here, there is a possibility that the Trump administration might intervene,” emphasizing the need to monitor the impact of such macroeconomic risk factors on the market.

Simtek, a company engaged in semiconductor package substrates and memory module businesses, has been added to MBN Gold Manager Shin Gwang-seop's recommended stocks. Simtek reported outstanding performance, with Q2 operating profit surging 11 times year-over-year, and recent continuous foreign investor buying suggests a positive trend. Manager Shin Gwang-seop announced, “I will include a stock called PCB Simtek. Looking at the Q2 operating profit data, it shows an 11-fold surge,” and presented a target price of 160,000 won and a stop-loss price of 87,000 won. Based on technical analysis, there is considered to be ample room for further upside from the current price level.