Economist Yoon Ji-ho saw the reason the KOSPI sell-side sidecar was triggered for the first time in two months not as a single cause but as a reflection of several concerns.
Yoon read Buffett's 'don't lose money' not as an instruction to do nothing, but as meaning that the value you buy at matters.
He said stocks should be bought starting yesterday, and that even if the index falls to around 5,500 it is an index level that will recover. He added that a recovery to the 9,000 and 8,000 levels looks far from easy.
He explained that a low PER means the market doubts growth. He said for PER to rise, the cyclical elements must decline.
Yoon explains that sentiment shifts in the order of fear, disappointment, doubt, and expectation. He said the market has now entered the doubt stage.
Yoon points out that many people tend to simply extend today's good figures into the future, assuming the future will be the same.
He noted that unlike industries such as TSMC that steadily maintain margins of around 40%, domestic semiconductor earnings swing widely, which creates fear of a downturn.
The gist of the explanation is that for stocks with a large share of variable costs, earnings swing sharply when raw material and logistics costs rise. He also noted that stock performance among companies tied to logistics costs has recently been poor.
Yoon said financial markets cannot be viewed like science. According to Soros's falsificationism, neither the claim that stock prices rise when rates rise nor the claim that they fall when rates fall holds up consistently.
The broadcast host explained that foreigners enter buying when they judge they can buy cheaply. He pointed out that in the past, when individuals sold heavily, foreigners bought aggressively.
He mentioned that this time the movements of foreigners and individuals are unusual, and also noted that doubts about governance have arisen.
Looking at the current index, valuation, and growth rate, he judged this to be a point to muster courage rather than retreat. He criticized people who want to check and then buy, saying there is no need for that.
Answers come from the transcript, with the exact spot cited.
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