Main Points of the Video

Baek Chan-gyu, Head of Research, put the start of the full rebound at next Monday or Wednesday.

The host named inflation indicators such as CPI as the cause of yesterday's decline. Baek acknowledged that the immediate inflation burden is large.

Baek noted that the March cover of The Economist addressed a "war without strategy," and that more than six months have passed since the war began.

Comparing the Fed's June and September projections, both this year's and next year's growth forecasts went up.

Even though the Fed set its outlook conservatively, analysts said next year looks better than this year. The condition, however, is that inflation must fall for the interest-rate burden to ease.

This year's inflation forecast rose more in September than in June, and that was the factor that shook the market yesterday. Next year's inflation forecast, by contrast, falls to the low 2% range.

The Korean market depends heavily on the earnings of two semiconductor companies. For chips to sell well, there must be places to sell them.

The customers for Korea's DRAM and HBM are in the United States. Only advanced economies can afford to buy at such high prices, and among them, the US is the main one.

He stressed that US growth and inflation indicators are therefore important.

The panel view was that above 1,500 won, the exchange rate is high enough to raise worries about the national finances. But if the won strengthens too quickly, concerns grow about Samsung Electronics' and SK hynix's earnings.

There are seven key reserve currencies, and the dollar index measures the dollar's strength against six of them. When those six currencies weaken, the dollar gets more expensive; when they strengthen, the dollar weakens.

The euro rate, in won terms, moved in the 1,300 to 1,500 range before surging to 1,800. Travel to Europe and honeymoon costs rose sharply, so the impact was felt widely.

Over the past month, the rate fell sharply on French fiscal concerns. The reasons cited were France's high government debt ratio and a fiscal deficit of around 5%, well above the 3% benchmark.

Baek said Korea's currency is not a reserve currency, and because its financial markets are still tied to emerging markets, the currency's resilience is relatively weak.

He described Korea's bond and stock markets as an ATM-like market where foreign capital flows in and out easily, making them highly volatile.

He identified the drivers of exchange rates as the interest-rate gap between home and abroad, the current account including semiconductor exports, and the growth gap. He expects the growth gap with the US to narrow next year, reducing the fundamental difference.

Even if Thursday is not the low point, he said forced liquidations from margin calls should form a rough floor, so he explained buying in portions every day from Thursday through Wednesday. He stressed that short-term essential funds should be kept out of stocks.

To reduce year-end capital gains tax, you can net gains and losses and settle them. After tidying up the tax burden, you can move into ETFs with similar exposure.

For intra-year dividends or monthly dividend cash flows, he advised reinvesting in the same stock to increase the share count.

He stressed that the more often you check your account, the more likely you are to trade on impulse, so reduce how often you check short-term price moves, to lessen loss-aversion.

In a sharp sell-off, he suggested raising the ETF share. Mixing growth-industry and monthly-dividend funds with core indexes can help respond even to a steep decline.

He recommended keeping ETFs at roughly half the portfolio at least until interest-rate concerns clear, likely into next year's first quarter.

He said to hold funds at 20 to 30% and cut single stocks to 10% or less. When rates and inflation are high, he argued, revenue growth matters more than EPS.

He opposed single-stock ELS. He rated domestic and overseas benchmark index ELS favorably, since index declines have raised coupons and lowered barriers, making mid-teens returns a reasonable expectation.