CNN Final Forecast: Democrats Projected to Gain House, Senate, and Gubernatorial Majorities

President Trump's net approval rating stands at 24 points underwater, which Harry Enten describes as "the worst for any president ever dating back to at least Harry S. Truman in 1946, the worst for any president before a midterm election." This historic disapproval rating sets a difficult baseline for the Republican Party.

Compounding the issue, congressional approval is at a record low of 14%, with 81% of Americans disapproving. Additionally, a plurality of voters, 45%, believe their own member of Congress does not deserve re-election, a troubling indicator for incumbents.

Inflation remains a defining issue for voters, significantly contributing to President Trump's negative ratings. While voters trust President Trump more on inflation compared to Kamala Harris by 9 points, his net approval rating regarding the issue is 52 points underwater.

Harry Enten notes that this level of unpopularity on inflation is "more unpopular than any other president ever," surpassing even Jimmy Carter's ratings on the same issue. This widespread dissatisfaction over the economy creates a difficult environment for Republicans seeking re-election or aiming to join Congress.

The Democratic lead on the national generic congressional ballot has widened significantly. A year ago, Democrats were up by 5 points, which increased to plus 6 last summer, and now stands at a substantial plus 9 points. This lead is crucial because it easily overcomes the Republican Party's advantage from recent redistricting efforts.

According to Harry Enten, Democrats likely need to win the popular House vote by only approximately 4 points to overcome the redistricting hurdle, making their current 9-point lead a strong indicator of potential success.

Current race analysts are rating 224 House seats as leaning Democratic for the 2026 cycle. This figure represents a historic shift, as it is significantly higher than in previous cycles at this stage.

In 2022, only 193 seats were leaning Democratic at the same point, and even in 2018, when Democrats secured a House majority with a net gain of 40 seats, they were well south of the 218 seats needed for a majority at this stage. This strong early positioning suggests Democrats are running ahead of their pace in prior election cycles.

Despite robust current projections, Harry Enten warns against over-relying on initial forecasts, citing historical instances where they have "overshot Democrats." He references the 2020 U.S. House races as an example.

In 2020, forecasts projected 242 seats for Democrats, but they ultimately won only 222 seats, an undershoot of 20 seats. This historical trend underscores the importance of considering broader data beyond just initial projections.

Harry Enten highlights national primary turnout as a key indicator for U.S. House elections, independent of polling data. He notes that in every midterm cycle from 2006 to 2022 (including 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022), the party that had the national primary turnout edge ultimately won the U.S. House.

Current data indicates that the Democratic Party holds this primary turnout edge for the upcoming election. Based on an aggregate of models, Enten projects a 92% chance for Democrats to win the U.S. House of Representatives, an increase of eight percentage points since August 13th.

The final forecast estimates Democrats securing 237 seats compared to 198 for Republicans. While 92% is not 100%, it leaves Republicans with only an 8% chance, making a Democratic House majority the most likely scenario.

Historically, flipping Senate seats in states where the opposing party won the prior presidential election by at least 10 points has been exceedingly difficult. Since 2011, in non-special elections, no party has managed to flip a Senate seat under these conditions.

For Democrats to win back the U.S. Senate, they need to flip at least two such 'plus 10 Trump states.' However, current polling indicates surprisingly narrow Democratic leads in key states like Alaska (plus 3), Ohio (plus 3 for Sherrod Brown), Texas (plus 3 for James Talarico), and Kansas (slight lead for Josh Turk), all of which Donald Trump won by at least 10 points two years ago. Enten notes that Trump is now underwater by double digits in all these states, with Texas showing him 13 points underwater and Alaska 15 points underwater, suggesting a significant shift in voter sentiment.

Republican candidates in several traditionally red states are struggling with significant unpopularity. Polling averages show candidates trailing by 16 points underwater in Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio.

The source material does not confirm specific polling figures for individual candidates such as Ken Paxton in Texas or Roger Marshall in Kansas. The transcript instead describes the broader picture: several Senate races in traditionally Republican states are tightening, with Democratic candidates narrowly leading or within a point or three in Ohio, Texas, Kansas, and Alaska. The speaker also notes that President Trump, who won these states by at least 10 points two years ago, is now underwater by double digits in them, which the speaker presents as a signal that Republicans should be concerned about the national environment. Because the individual candidate figures cannot be verified from the transcript, they are not reported here.

A historical polling bias suggests a potential path for Republican success, particularly in states won by Donald Trump. Between 2018 and 2024, the GOP has consistently outperformed their final Senate poll averages by 4.1 points in these Trump-won states.

Harry Enten explains that if polls underestimate the GOP by approximately 4 points again across the board, the Senate map could shift, potentially allowing Republicans to hold onto the majority. This phenomenon could impact states such as Michigan, Iowa, Texas, Alaska, and Kansas, making the races much tighter than current polls suggest.

Democratic candidates are reaching historic polling levels in critical Senate races. In Texas, James Talarico holds a 6-point lead, which Harry Enten notes is the best polling performance for any Democratic Senate nominee since Lloyd Bentsen won a Senate seat in 1988.

Even traditionally strong Republican incumbents are facing unprecedented challenges. Senator Susan Collins in Maine is 12 points underwater in her net popularity, marking her worst heading into an election this century. These trends indicate that not only is Trump unpopular, but GOP nominees themselves are historically unpopular across the map.

The statistical probability of Democrats winning the Senate has surged to 71%, up nearly 20 points since the August 13th forecast. Harry Enten states, "I never thought I'd see the day early on in this campaign where Democrats would have a 71% chance of winning back the United States Senate."

Despite this high probability, Republicans still retain a 29% chance of holding onto the majority. Enten emphasizes that 29% is still statistically significant, comparing it to a good baseball batting average, underscoring that while unlikely, a Republican hold is not impossible.

CNN's final Senate forecast projects Democrats to secure a 52-48 majority, surpassing the 51 seats necessary to gain control. This prediction indicates a clear majority for the Democratic Party in the United States Senate.

The forecast sees Democrats flipping several key contested states, including Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio, and North Carolina. While this is the specific seat forecast, Harry Enten notes the probabilistic nature of the prediction, acknowledging that races in states like Maine, Kansas, Iowa, and Alaska remain extremely competitive and could potentially swing the other way, though the aggregate projection stands at 52-48.

According to CNN's prediction partner, Koshi, the probability of Democrats winning a majority of gubernatorial seats has surged dramatically from just 27% on March 30th to 83% currently. Harry Enten described this rise as "up like a rocket."

This outcome would be historically rare, as Democrats have held a majority of governor seats only 12% of the time in the past 32 years. The last period they maintained this majority was from 2007 to 2010. The current projections are supported by prediction markets, polling data, and race raters, suggesting a significant shift in political landscape for state leadership.

Despite projections for significant Democratic gains, the party faces an internal challenge: widespread dissatisfaction with its leadership. The net approval of congressional Democratic leaders currently sits at minus 12 points, a stark contrast to plus 19 points during the previous Trump midterm. Harry Enten notes this indicates "Democrats don't even like their own leaders."

Specifically, Senator Chuck Schumer, the senior senator from New York, is identified as the least popular Democratic leader in the U.S. Senate since at least 1985, based on polling data spanning over 40 years. His net popularity rating among Democrats is minus five points. This internal crisis could create significant pressure and high expectations for Democratic leaders if they secure majorities, potentially straining their ability to govern effectively.