Lee Jae-myung's Approval Rating Faces Crisis of Falling Below 30%, Negative Evaluation by 40s Exceeds 60%

Analysis of recent public opinion trends indicates that predictions are spreading in political circles that Democratic Party of Korea leader Lee Jae-myung's approval rating is precarious, even falling below 30%. Particularly shocking is that six out of ten people in their 40s, who were considered Lee Jae-myung's core supporters, are giving negative evaluations. Consequently, concerns are being raised that the possibility of his approval rating collapsing below 30% could become a reality.

Claims have been made that Lee Jae-myung's declining approval rating has received a 'death sentence,' describing him as a 'dead duck.' The Democratic Party's neglect of youth political participation and real estate policies are cited as major reasons. Analysis suggests that the party's policy direction is out of sync with youth sentiment, and young people are also reacting negatively to the performance shown at the national convention. As a result, pessimism about Lee Jae-myung's chances of a rebound is spreading.

The approval rating in the Honam region of South Jeolla Province has plummeted by a staggering 12 percentage points, sparking controversy over the Democratic Party's strategic failure. This is considered a decline on the level of a 'market crash.' Analysis largely suggests that the Honam semiconductor strategy proposed during the national convention and the controversy surrounding the Starbucks independence activist event had a counterproductive effect on Honam public sentiment. Considering that Honam is the Democratic Party's traditional support base, such a decline in approval rating is expected to serve as a serious warning sign for the party.

A pessimistic forecast has emerged that Lee Jae-myung's approval rating, currently surveyed at 36-38%, could drop further to the 25% range. This is based on an analysis estimating the proportion of Lee Jae-myung's strong supporters, 'Dae-gaemyeong,' to be 20-25%. Concerns are growing that if the departure of core supporters continues, the approval rating could converge to the level of fixed supporters. This decline is expected to significantly damage Lee Jae-myung's political standing.

Strong antipathy towards Lee Jae-myung is forming among the 2030 generation, and a perception of 'irrational politics that deviates from common sense' is spreading. In particular, they claim that there is widespread public opinion that they do not recognize Lee Jae-myung as president. Criticism of the clause on the revocation of public prosecution in the criminal law amendment, along with the youth's rejection of attempts at history education and ideological indoctrination, are also analyzed as contributing to the antipathy towards Lee.

Criticism has been raised that the cancellation of Starbucks' independence activist event was a 'witch hunt.' Despite the fact that benefits received by independence activists and their families were lost due to this incident, the lack of clear government measures was pointed out. In particular, anger among young people over ideology-driven administrative processing is growing, and this is analyzed as influencing the formation of negative public opinion towards Lee Jae-myung.

Analysis indicates that the departure of conservative supporters aged 70 and above has deepened due to recent security-related issues, such as concerns over weakening the ROK-US alliance and the integration of military academies. It is explained that voters aged 70 and above, who were previously favorable due to welfare benefits, are feeling great anxiety about the possibility of the ROK-US alliance collapsing. In particular, former President Trump's remarks regarding ROK-US joint exercises are believed to have further amplified this security anxiety, leading to the departure of conservative voters.

Lee Jae-myung's pledge to 'install bathtubs in gosiwon (cram school dormitories)' is being criticized as a prime example of impractical administrative policy disconnected from reality. Experts with experience living in gosiwon point out that bathtub installation is physically impossible due to the gosiwon's structure and criticize that this pledge was made without understanding the reality of youth housing. It was emphasized that gosiwon do not have partitions, making not only bathtub installation but also the environment for individual units to use water impossible. This is leading to criticism that realistic circumstances were not properly considered during the policy formulation process.

Analysis suggests that instead of openly opposing the introduction of a direct election system for party members within the Democratic Party of Korea, assembly members are seeking a pretext for opposition by arguing that it is 'too soon.' This is because it is difficult to directly reject the grand cause of sharing power with party members. In fact, it is reported that during the assembly members' general meeting, while acknowledging the intent of the system, they expressed indirect opposition by raising the question of 'why now?' This is interpreted as reflecting the assembly members' reluctance to be subject to evaluation.

Former People Power Party leader Kim Gi-heon is being criticized as his past remarks, in which he emphasized party-centric elections and advocated for increasing the proportion of party members during the national convention, are being re-examined. It is pointed out that Kim, who was elected leader through a party-centric primary at the time, is now advocating for electing the leader through public opinion polls, which constitutes a change in stance. Citing Representative Ahn Cheol-soo's criticism, the argument emphasizes his responsibility for inconsistent behavior as a veteran multi-term assembly member.

Recent remarks by writer Yoo Si-min are causing great confusion across the entire opposition, especially within the Democratic Party of Korea. After Yoo Si-min's remarks, internal conflicts within the Democratic Party have deepened, and Representative Park Jie-won even strongly criticized Yoo Si-min's remarks, stating that the Democratic Party is heading towards becoming 'rebellious forces.' As the ripple effect of Yoo Si-min's remarks grows, further division within the Democratic Party is expected.

Pessimistic predictions have been raised regarding the longevity of the Democratic Party of Korea's Kim Min-seok leadership. It is observed that the current Kim Min-seok leadership will have difficulty lasting more than six months. It was also assessed that leader Lee Jae-myung has already entered a 'dead duck' state, and the Kim Min-seok leadership entered 'lame duck' status simultaneously with its launch. Internal opposition that arose during the appointment process of appointed supreme council members is analyzed as further deepening the Kim Min-seok leadership's lack of leadership. This situation adds great instability to the Democratic Party's future direction.

A crisis within the Democratic Party of Korea is escalating as the approval rating in the Honam region has plummeted by a staggering 21%. In particular, questions are being raised about the sincerity of the 'Honam Semiconductor' pledge presented during the national convention. It is reported that within the party, there is a sentiment of not recognizing the Kim Min-seok leadership and instead seeking out Representative Jeong Cheong-rae again. This suggests that beyond a mere drop in approval rating, the party's core support base is shaking, and calls for significant changes in the Democratic Party's future strategy are growing.

Concerns about a public security gap due to the abolition of the prosecution's security investigative powers are spreading. Citing the victim of the 'Busan Roundhouse Kick' incident, who stated that 'the gates of hell will open' if the prosecution's security investigative powers are completely abolished, criticism has been raised that the current situation is no different. With concerns that strengthening the police's sole investigative powers could lead to a lack of investigative capabilities and a breakdown in public security, critical public opinion on the 'Prosecution Reform' (complete deprivation of prosecutorial investigative powers) policy is further intensifying.

The argument to restore the prosecution's investigative powers, 'Restore Prosecutorial Powers,' is spreading within and outside political circles. Pointing out that Representative Kim Min-seok used the complete abolition of prosecutorial investigative powers as a major justification during his election as party leader, criticism has been raised that it will be difficult for him to reverse this policy. Consequently, calls for Representative Kim Min-seok's resignation and revision of the 'Prosecution Reform' policy are growing, and this is emerging as a major point of contention in internal party conflicts.

Internal conflict within the Democratic Party of Korea is deepening between Representative Kim Min-seok and Representative Lee Jin-soo. Following reports that Representative Lee Jin-soo's aide had filed a complaint with the Press Arbitration Commission alleging harassment by Representative Kim Hyun, news broke that a resolution urging Representative Lee Jin-soo's expulsion is scheduled to be submitted to today's Democratic Party plenary session. This is interpreted as a result of a combination of factors, including the controversy surrounding Representative Kim Min-seok's remarks related to the May 18 event and Representative Lee Jin-soo's close monitoring of Representative Kim Min-seok, revealing the severity of factional conflict within the Democratic Party.