Stock Prices Consolidate Despite Semiconductor Export Boom

This is cited as an example of a rotational market, which reacts to short-term issues rather than a clear direction for the overall market. The tendency for demand to concentrate on specific events was strong across the market.

This is evaluated as serving as the only support in an extremely tight market supply and demand situation. Currently, most major investment entities other than other corporations are net sellers, so the impact of these large semiconductor companies' share buybacks on the market is noteworthy. Kim Jang-yeol, expert, said, "It's the first time that the two largest companies, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, have bought back shares at the same time like this."

While a price increase superficially appears positive, some offered a pessimistic outlook, suggesting D-RAM supply and demand balance might not be achieved until 2028. These conflicting views are exacerbating uncertainty in the semiconductor industry. Kim Jang-yeol, expert, explained, "The D-RAM X pricing, which is the fixed transaction price for August, done every month, is superficially okay."

In the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market, concerns about oversupply risk and technical difficulties have been raised. In particular, it has been pointed out that as technology advances to HBM4 and HBM 4E, the difficulty of manufacturing the base die (logic chip) is significantly increasing. This could be a limiting factor for HBM production expansion, and the possibility of a prolonged GPU performance spec reduction (despec) has also been mentioned. Kim Jang-yeol, expert, expressed concern about technical difficulties, asking, "As we move to HBM4 and then HBM 4E, even if we try to lower the HBM4's specs to produce more, will the underlying logic die itself be supplied that easily?"

This is attributed to expectations for the launch of foldable phones by Samsung Electronics and Apple. In particular, the prospect of BH expanding its supply of foldable phone components in line with Samsung Display's expansion plans stimulated investor sentiment. Kim Jang-yeol, expert, emphasized BH's strength, stating, "BH got a proper foldable report today, 22%."

ALB's stock price fell despite releasing additional clinical data after FDA rejection. The market evaluated this data as not being directly related to FDA approval. While there were positive aspects to the clinical results, the uncertainty surrounding actual approval was not resolved, leading to a dominant selling sentiment among investors. In particular, foreign and institutional selling pressure was prominent, fueling the stock's decline. Kim Jang-yeol, expert, explained, "The FDA... are you getting approval?... The data just came out well. So this simply popped up in the morning as news... and bio players pumped it up, sold it off, and left."

Some argue that AI is the only solution in a situation where debt cannot be reduced. There were also predictions that if demand for Treasury bonds becomes insufficient, the government will forcibly secure demand through tax reforms, etc. The possibility of inducing Treasury bond purchases through regulatory changes for insurance companies and banks was even mentioned, raising the view that AI growth is essential for US economic management. Kim Jang-yeol, expert, stated, "Debt cannot be reduced... GDP growth must be increased through AI... Someone has to buy Treasury bonds, and the government will secure that demand, even if forcibly, by changing the tax system."

Overall fundamentals were solid, but trading volume showed a decreasing trend. However, an analysis also suggested that investor sentiment was not completely frozen. Lee Han-young, expert, diagnosed the current market situation, saying, "In conclusion, the current point feels like a market where some self-correction is starting to work."

With many holidays in September and October leading to fewer trading days, advice was given to take a relaxed approach to the market rather than expecting a short-term V-shaped rebound. Analysis suggests there are insufficient factors to sharply push stock prices up, as investor sentiment has not fully recovered from the shock of July's sharp decline. Therefore, a cautious strategy focusing on sectoral rotation rather than short-term surges was emphasized as necessary. Lee Han-young, expert, explained, "Rationally, you should view it more like this than a V-shape, but the problem is we have many holidays in September and October. So, there's no need to think it will rise sharply now."

Lee Han-young, expert, stated, "When asked if leading stocks need to be new choices, I think there's no need to choose new stocks, but instead, you should set themes."

It was emphasized that the process of selecting stocks with clear investment points in each sector is important. It was advised to decisively replace stocks that rely on past data or whose momentum has dissipated, and to find stocks with a valid investment concept at the current time. Lee An-young, expert, explained, "These are the ones where investment points are clearly established in each sector, but at this point, some are past, some have dissipated, and some are not. So, we need to sort them out, but for the stocks you hold or invest in, the question is whether the performance and momentum conditions will eventually work within this concept."

It was pointed out that the timing of a specific report's release could actually be a short-term peak, thus requiring a cautious approach in preparation for such situations. For cases where the gap to the target price narrows to within 10%, a strategy of utilizing dips was recommended. Kim Jang-yeol, expert, advised, "When there is such rotation, you need to be very attentive. It's something you know, but when it's concretized, numbered, or pointed out to you to sell, then you need to act frequently."

It's a situation where growth must be established on top of debt through AI, and it was emphasized that most market participants believe AI will play this role and are investing accordingly. If the AI industry token demand growth rate sharply drops below 15 times, this could be a risk factor, but currently, investment in AI is expected to continue regardless of stock price volatility. Kim Jang-yeol, expert, stated, "There's no other way but to enhance productivity and reduce costs through AI, then foster growth to settle growth on top of debt, preventing it from pulling down. And that's because most people in this entire ecosystem believe AI will achieve this and commit to it."

It was also argued that current concerns about demand could be resolved by increased efficiency through agent adoption. However, the possibility of increased stock price volatility due to rising short-term interest rates and financial leverage concerns was also mentioned. Kim Jang-yeol, expert, posed the core question, stating, "If the number of tokens increases 11, 15 times, and the price drops 80%, 90%, can it be monetized? Yes. Then, we need to ask if the number of tokens will increase 11, 15 times."

The outlook suggests that if NVIDIA's stock price maintains the $180 level, its AI-related business will continue. Currently, NVIDIA's P/E ratio is around 18x, but considering its growth potential of 40-70%, below $180 could be considered undervalued. However, it was also noted that time is needed to build shareholder return policies and market trust. For overseas stock investors, NVIDIA is expected to continue to attract attention as a stock representing the growth potential of the AI industry. Kim Jang-yeol, expert, emphasized, "From the perspective of those investing in overseas stocks, what I see is that if NVIDIA doesn't break $180, the AI business will continue."

Additionally, concerns were raised that geopolitical issues, such as conflicts in the Middle East, could continue until the election, potentially impacting the market further. Kim Jang-yeol, expert, explained, "I think something will come out here. However, that doesn't mean it will come out tomorrow or this week. There are two months until the midterm elections."

A revised strategy was suggested, indicating a need to actively respond to the rotational market from September. Analysis suggests this approach could be more advantageous in terms of short-term returns. However, it was emphasized that when an entire sector surges, investors should refrain from chasing the rally and instead selectively respond to individual stocks within promising sectors such as cosmetics, secondary batteries, nuclear power, and data centers. It was recommended to approach Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix from a portfolio perspective rather than unilaterally reducing their weight. Kim Jang-yeol, expert, advised, "From September, I think it's okay to move a bit. I mean, let's try responding to the rotation. In terms of returns, short-term, that's a bit more fitting."

A warning was issued against investing due to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) sentiment. Citing the surge in cosmetic stocks, it was argued that entering the market during the early stages, when there is doubt, is actually safer. It was explained that utilizing correction periods after a short-term surge as buying opportunities is an effective strategy, emphasizing the need for cool-headed judgment not to be swayed by an overheated market atmosphere. Hwang Yu-hyun, expert, said, "The most important thing to be careful about is not buying into FOMO. It's better to buy when you're in doubt."

Along with the forecast that the September market will show a dull trend, strategies for dealing with such a 'boring market' were mentioned. It was pointed out that feelings of market alienation are leading to an increase in deposit assets, which could result in merely accumulating stock experience without improving actual skills. Therefore, it was emphasized that investors must continue their efforts to find leading stocks even in this dull market. Hwang Yu-hyun, expert, explained, "If you're stuck and doing nothing, your stock experience will grow, but your skills won't improve at all."

A hypothesis was presented that while selling occurs normally through programs, there is clearly a buying entity when stock prices fall. This leads to the interpretation that behind the seemingly unified net buying and net selling indicators, the selling and buying entities are separate. Analysis suggests that institutional and foreign accumulation may be occurring even amidst intraday corrections. Lee Ji-won, expert, explained, "Selling happens normally through the program, and when it falls in the middle, someone is definitely buying. We always see it as net buying and net selling, so it looks like one thing."

A forecast emerged that a large-scale infrastructure-related policy is likely to be announced in late September. This is linked to the possibility of large-scale infrastructure investment related to Trump's presidential campaign. Analysis suggests that such stimulus measures are realistic, as the Treasury Department has policy funding capacity through tariff revenues. Accordingly, semiconductors, infrastructure-related stocks, and consumer discretionary goods are expected to perform well until after the November midterm elections. Lee Ji-hwan, expert, explained, "If it comes together around late September, there's a high possibility of large-scale infrastructure-related policies, which means some infrastructure-related stocks and consumer discretionary goods will likely see a good trend until after the November midterm elections."

Several unfavorable factors, including the midterm elections, high interest rates, and oil prices, are overlapping, and with the Chuseok holiday, the market is expected to be very dull and sluggish, even without significant fear. This repetition of dull fluctuations can accumulate fatigue for individual investors, ultimately dampening investment activity. Lee Ji-hwan, expert, stated, "September is not good. Ahead of the midterm elections, August was not good, now interest rates are high, oil prices are an issue, so it's very unfavorable, a situation where you can't gain much. Plus, the Chuseok holiday overlaps. The market will be very sluggish and dull, even if fear doesn't rise significantly."

The analysis suggests that if one is considering which stocks to buy in the global market, these large semiconductor companies could be an attractive choice. From a fund manager's perspective, they were assessed as being at an opportune time to buy. Lee Ji-hwan, expert, said, "Globally, if I were to ask what to buy right now, I think many would want to buy Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix."