Accelerated US entry for Tether, changes in the tokenized securities market, and intensified Layer 2 competition are drawing attention.
With a cloture vote scheduled for 3 AM KST on September 16, former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti stated that the bill is highly likely to be effectively sidelined. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, also pointed out the low market expectations for the bill's passage.
The market has already discounted the bill's chances of passing, so its failure is expected to have a limited downward impact on the market. Some analyses even suggest that if passed, it could act as a significant positive catalyst.
Even if the Clarity Act does not pass, institutional capital inflow is expected to continue. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has shown its intention to resolve regulatory gaps through 'Regulation Crypto,' which is expected to reduce market uncertainty.
In fact, 18 fatalities occurred, which former President Donald Trump corrected directly on Truth Social.
Secretary Lutnick faced controversy for exaggerating results during the investment agreement process with Japan. He was criticized for inflating the achievement of attracting $550 billion in investment.
Secretary Lutnick was the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, whose headquarters were located in the World Trade Center Twin Towers, during the 9/11 attacks. 658 Cantor Fitzgerald employees died in the attacks, but Lutnick miraculously survived while taking his son to kindergarten. After this event, he deepened his relationship with former President Trump during the fundraising process for victims' families.
Tether struggled with traditional Wall Street financial institutions due to allegations of terrorist financing in 2021. However, Lutnick championed Tether, publicly promoting the excellence of its reserves. Cantor Fitzgerald manages Tether's treasury operations and holds a 5% stake in Tether.
Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce nominee, has total assets of $250 million, of which $190 million are distributions from Cantor Fitzgerald. Evidence has emerged that Tether provided hundreds of billions of dollars in loans to a children's trust during an 8-month gap between his appointment as Secretary and his resignation as CEO, raising conflict of interest suspicions.
Democratic lawmakers are demanding documentation regarding the relationship between Lutnick and Tether, highlighting conflict of interest issues.
Tether is already proceeding with its US expansion under the USAT brand, which is anticipated to bring significant benefits to Tether.
This aims to expand tokenized assets and includes provisions such as enhancing investor and issuer education, and establishing on-chain payment infrastructure. The scope will expand from existing unconventional securities to stocks, bonds, and funds.
When adopting a distributed ledger, it is mandatory to undergo an suitability assessment by the Korea Securities Depository, and only one ledger can be issued per security type. This means that transfers to other ledgers are prohibited. These restrictions are criticized for making asset movement between blockchains impossible, thus lacking differentiation from existing systems. Consequently, the closed operating structure raises doubts about the effectiveness of distributed ledger adoption.
The DSRV CEO expressed agreement with the roadmap itself but worried that the Stage 1 risk approach, which includes restrictions such as 'one ledger per security type,' could become institutionally enshrined as a market architecture through research. Concerns continue that incompatibility with public blockchains could lead to double costs, and that the operation of permissioned ledgers lacks differentiation from existing systems.
Shinhan Investment Corp. is collaborating with Etherfuse to issue stable bonds based on Korean government bonds, exploring new business opportunities through global partnerships.
Indeed, brokerage firms are not willing to do it domestically. They originally planned to recruit retail investors, but the 2023 guidelines didn't allow for securities.
This is similar to a watchlist designation and suggests that surviving in the market solely on technical prowess has become difficult.
This shows that as competition intensifies in the Layer 2 market, the meaning of traditional market share has significantly diminished.
As you can see from the chart on the far left, the light blue is Arbitrum. It was 100% in '21. But now look at the far right. It's shrunk to less than about 10%.
Robinhood Chain records enormous transaction volumes ($1.5 billion) and daily fee revenue ($3.75 million), contributing 10% of this revenue to the Arbitrum ecosystem. Of this, 8% is allocated to the Arbitrum DAO Treasury and 2% to the Developer Guild, demonstrating a virtuous cycle.
Most Layer 2 technology is open source, significantly reducing technical moats. The market is now shifting to a period where sales capability, platform power, and branding are more crucial for success than technical prowess. Retention strategies for projects like Arbitrum are becoming increasingly important.
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