Bitcoin Diagnosed as 'Early Bull Market' Amid AI Stock Decline — Experts Say "4+ Year Holding Period Yields 100% Win Rate"

Analysts say the focus that once centered entirely on semiconductor stocks is now changing.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the gold spot ETF (GLD) and bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) have re-entered the top 10 ETFs by trading volume, suggesting market interest is returning to bitcoin.

This reflects uncertainty over how AI-related stocks are valued.

He pointed to the high volatility and potential downside risk of AI-related stocks, recommending a focus on gold and bitcoin as relatively stable stores of value.

His view is that the government's expanded liquidity supply will cause a decline in currency value, a so-called 'debasement trade,' increasing demand for bitcoin.

The policy similarities between former Fed Chair Yellen and former Federal Reserve Bank official Bessent were cited, with analysts saying their monetary policy stance will keep supplying liquidity to the market. This macro environment is expected to positively affect bitcoin's long-term value.

Bitcoin prices have risen sharply in a short period since May 1. Several long bullish candles on the daily chart have led some investors to feel uneasy about chasing the rally.

However, from a long-term perspective, bitcoin is still down 30–40% from its peak. Despite the short-term surge, this is interpreted as meaning there is still room for recovery for long-term investors.

Crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant analyzed that bitcoin has entered a bull market phase. Based on key bitcoin indicators, it suggested the market is turning into an uptrend.

However, it pointed out that bitcoin has not yet broken above the 365-day moving average resistance at around $83,000. Whether this resistance is broken is expected to be a key factor in determining whether bitcoin definitively enters an uptrend.

Forbes reported that the bitcoin market has ended its bear market and entered a bull phase. The inflow of $2 billion into US spot bitcoin ETFs in the past week alone is seen as a signal of this shift to a bull market.

Some experts, including Galaxy Research, are offering optimistic forecasts that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by year-end.

Experts warn that although bitcoin has entered the early stage of a bull market, a price correction is also possible. This means a correction may be needed to prevent market overheating and enable healthy gains.

Julio Moreno stressed that bitcoin must firmly break above the 365-day moving average at around $83,000 to be considered a true bull market turnaround. Whether this price level is broken is expected to be an important turning point for the bitcoin market.

Bitcoin's resistance near $80,000 is attributed mainly to profit-taking by long-held investors. Investors who bought around $80,000 are selling their holdings as prices recover to their break-even point, acting as a constraint on further gains.

For investors feeling the burden of the short-term rally, experts recommend dollar-cost averaging (DCA), a strategy of steadily buying in installments rather than all at once to manage market volatility.

Bernstein forecasts bitcoin rising to $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 by 2029. This reflects a high assessment of bitcoin's long-term upside potential.

Given these long-term targets, analysts say short-term fluctuations in entry prices such as $79,000, $81,000, or $77,000 will not make a major difference to long-term returns.

It is estimated that about 825,000 people worldwide hold 1 bitcoin or more. This corresponds to roughly one in 10,000 people globally, or just 0.01% of the total population.

Holding 0.1 BTC or more places you in the global top 0.06%, and holding just 0.01 BTC or more can put you in the top 0.3%. This means that even a small bitcoin holding can place you among the world's top asset holders.

Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million coins, giving it high scarcity. Because of this scarcity, bitcoin holdings can serve as an important indicator of wealth concentration.

He said investors are steadily expanding the ways they can gain bitcoin exposure, and that ETFs are the most efficient and secure among them.

This supports the view that spot bitcoin ETFs will play an important role in lowering the barrier to entry for not only institutional but also retail investors, bringing the digital asset market into the mainstream financial system.

Large inflows into BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) are serving as a major driver of bitcoin's price rise. Some see BlackRock as a 'force' that shapes the market, not just an asset manager.

BlackRock's structure means it has little choice but to actively push bitcoin, since bitcoin's success is directly tied to its own profits. This means bitcoin has a strong backer, raising expectations for long-term price gains.

BlackRock's IBIT spot ETF has so far processed the conversion of more than $5 billion worth of spot bitcoin into the ETF.

This aligns with reports that large financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley are converting 5–7% of their managed assets into spot bitcoin ETFs. This is attributed to spot ETFs reducing the risks of direct holding and offering easier management.

Such low fees are an attractive factor for investors and can help drive fund inflows.

In addition, spot bitcoin ETFs effectively address the hacking risks, private key management difficulties, and inheritance issues that individual investors may face when holding bitcoin directly. Thanks to this convenience and safety, many spot holders are converting to ETFs.

These inflows have been led mainly by BlackRock's IBIT ETF. After BlackRock's report was released, individual investors' appetite for buying bitcoin reportedly reached a peak.

This is based on calculating returns using bitcoin price data from July 18, 2010 to August 22, 2026, with the purchase start date shifted by one day at a time.

Across a total of 4,419 four-year holding periods, bitcoin's price ended higher than its starting price in every case. This means that investing for four years or more has a 100% probability of recovering principal and achieving a profit.

With a two-year investment, the win rate rises to 84%.

With a three-year investment, the win rate is 99.3%, nearly 100%, and the median return reaches 484%. This shows that the longer the holding period, the markedly lower the risk of loss and the greater the improvement in returns.

In particular, with a holding period of four years or more, the win rate reaches 100%, with a median return of 1,300% and a minimum return of 32.6%. These statistics suggest that long-term bitcoin investing has shown a very high success rate based on historical data.