Oil Prices Soar as US-Iran Conflict Escalates

Despite growing market expectations for an end to the Middle East war due to Iran's recent conciliatory messages, tensions have re-escalated with Israel's renewed airstrikes on the Gaza Strip. The host commented, "Initially, it was widely expected that there wouldn't be a war," suggesting that market expectations were broken. This incident is understood to have occurred during a special operation by the Israeli military.

Reports of US military casualties during Israel's additional airstrikes and Iran's retaliation spread fears of war escalation in the market. Park Sang-hyuk, editor-in-chief of Digital Asset, stated, "What news came out during the retaliation? Reports that several US soldiers had died," emphasizing the heightened market sensitivity due to these reports. As a result, international crude oil (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) surged 5% in a single day.

The surge in international oil prices directly translates into inflationary pressure, serving as a factor that increases the Federal Reserve's (Fed) incentive to raise interest rates. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk explained, "Naturally, when oil prices soar, inflation pressure increases, which in turn amplifies the Fed's incentive to raise interest rates." Consequently, a decline in risk assets and a rise in US Treasury yields are being observed.

The 10-year US Treasury yield has reached its highest level since January 2025, increasing the likelihood of a benchmark interest rate hike. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk stated, "The 10-year US Treasury yield, for instance, recorded its highest level since January 2025." This could strengthen the strong dollar trend, leading to pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michael Barr stated that if inflation does not slow sufficiently, it may be necessary to aggressively raise interest rates preemptively. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk quoted his remarks, saying, "If inflation does not show sufficient signs of slowing down in the future, there will be a need to aggressively and preemptively raise interest rates," raising concerns that a consensus for rate hikes could form among Fed members.

Former President Donald Trump criticized the current interest rate level in the US as too high, asserting that US rates should be among the lowest in the world. He argued, "US interest rates are currently too high. Our rates should be among the lowest in the world," heightening tensions surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) independent decisions. Attention is now focused on the Fed's decision at the upcoming September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

A shift in the internal sentiment of the Federal Reserve is detected as five of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting members are now identified as having hawkish tendencies. Park Sang-hyuk, editor-in-chief of Digital Asset, analyzed, "Five hawkish members have been appointed. In that case, it seems correct to view it as almost certainly leaning towards a hike." Out of a total of 12 voting members, Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, and Michael Barr are classified as hawkish, leading the market to heavily weigh the possibility of a September rate hike. These internal changes at the Fed are expected to have a significant impact on future monetary policy direction.

The volatile price swings of memecoins stem from low liquidity and a structure where a few players control most of the supply. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk explained, "If trading occurs with low liquidity and most of the supply is dominated by a few, such percentages are possible." He further warned, "If there's a low market cap or low liquidity, investors who enter late can experience very sharp drops," pointing out that chasing late can lead to massive losses.

The 'Pons' platform, based on the Robinhood chain, has emerged, offering a revenue structure linked to the Arbitrum ecosystem. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk explained, "That's Pons; it's like Pump.fun for Solana." He clarified that Pons functions similarly to Solana's Pump.fun. Thanks to a structure where 10% of the revenue from memecoins issued on Pons is attributed to Arbitrum, the activation of Pons trading has led to a simultaneous rise in Arbitrum (ARB) coin.

Among high-yield memecoins that surged over 100% in price over the past three months, 54.46% showed that a few wallets controlled more than 30% of the total supply. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk explained, "High-yield memecoins, defined as those that rose over 100% in price over three months, were analyzed for holding concentration ratio (where a few control over 30% of supply). Out of 707 high-yield memecoins, 54.46% fell into this category." In particular, the top 10 wallets hold 70-80% of the total coins, raising concerns about potential price manipulation through wash trading.

A study of 18.67 million Pump.fun memecoins revealed that 68.67% of them were traded on the day of issuance but no longer traded from the next day onwards. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk stated, "18.67 million memecoins were issued. It was found that 68.67% of those 18.67 million coins were traded on the day of issuance but no longer traded the next day." Only 4.5% of the coins issued were actively traded for 90 days or more, demonstrating the extremely low survival rate of memecoins.

Memecoin investment is particularly active among young people in China, who pursue profits through continuous day trading day and night. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk mentioned, "Where is memecoin investment most popular? Among Chinese people. A lot of very young people do it. And they don't sleep," explaining the characteristics of memecoin investment. He warned that this type of investment has a structure where individuals find it difficult to beat the system, requiring constant monitoring, and it's hard to survive without information sharing with 'whales.' Ultimately, he pointed out that most individual investors suffer losses, with only the operating platforms making profits.

Analysis of memecoin investors who made hundreds of millions of won in profit showed that obtaining information before issuance and entering at an early stage were key to success. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk analyzed, "It seems they had a chance because they knew the information before issuance and entered as soon as it was issued." Success stories were extremely rare, and while most investors invested in dozens of memecoins, only a few achieved successful outcomes.

The main psychological factors behind the memecoin investment craze are surging charts and widespread stories of profit realization. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk noted, "If you're looking at a chart that's going up, your thoughts will change," pointing out that investors are easily swayed by rising charts. This psychological fluctuation contributes to the memecoin investment craze.

Decentralized exchange Hyperliquid is exploring entry into the US market through a technological partnership with Payward. Given the current limited access for US investors, Hyperliquid plans to provide services to US derivatives exchanges in collaboration with Payward to attract users. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk explained, "Hyperliquid currently cannot be accessed by US users. They are pursuing this collaboration to attract US users." However, regulatory issues such as anti-money laundering (AML) are expected to be variables for future entry.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has proposed revising its transfer agent rules to introduce a blockchain-based automated system for securities operations. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk stated, "They proposed a system overhaul that simultaneously digitizes and brings in a blockchain-based system." This is an attempt to digitize existing manual processes and use distributed ledger technology to provide real-time notification services for changes. The proposal is currently in a 60-day public comment period.

Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) model 'Grok' has introduced a cryptocurrency exchange feature through a collaboration with MoonPay. Editor-in-chief Park Sang-hyuk explained, "This is a collaboration between Grok and MoonPay. For example, if you ask it to exchange $100 worth of stablecoins for Solana or something else, it will perform the exchange." He clarified that users can now exchange stablecoins for other cryptocurrencies on-chain within Grok. While direct connections to central exchanges are currently limited, this feature is considered a significant development in enhancing cryptocurrency trading convenience within an AI model.