Bitcoin Holds Key Support After a Rough October, as the Host Points to Post-Midterm History and AI Power Demand

The host opens by saying October was rough. Yesterday was okay and today a little better, but last week and last month were bad. Looking at Bitcoin, the host notes that just over two months earlier it was at 60,000 and is now at about 77,500, so the host says "we're not doing too badly." The host adds that it is "not all good, I'm afraid," and says the video will look at money flows, drainage and the last growth engine.

The host says a Morgan Stanley report found that US AI data centers in particular will be 70 gigawatts short on power through 2028. That is double the 36 gigawatt gap the same kind of forecast showed a year earlier. The host asks why this matters: if power is the bottleneck for compute, who can plug it in, and what happens to the hyperscalers that do have power? The host's answer is that those with power should see good results, and says this will have a huge payoff as the future unfolds.

The host reports that the Crypto Fear & Greed index is at 26, just above the extreme fear threshold, and that one more point down would put it in extreme fear. The host says many people are giving up and are worried about cold storage, Binance and hacks, and does not sugarcoat that "it's not pretty out there."

Over the last seven days the host says crypto was brutal: Bitcoin was down 3%, while ETH outperformed Bitcoin with a 1.38% drop, which the host calls very unusual. Binance was down 6.09%, and Solana down 7%. Hyperliquid was the weekly winner, up 9%. Over the last month the host gives Bitcoin an 8.5% loss, Ethereum down 14.8%, Solana down 20%, Binance down 11% and XRP down 14%. The host says it is nasty across the board and that expectations for October did not play out.

The host says the Bitcoin ETF lows are nasty: IBIT had its second-biggest dump in months the previous day, and four of the last five weeks were red. Six weeks earlier ETFs had a very strong week, but since then flows have been bleeding steadily, which the host partly attributes to the US midterm elections held that day.

The host says they used to believe investors could ignore politics, but now they cannot, especially for the last growth engine discussed later in the video.

The host says Ethereum ETF flows are worse than Bitcoin's, with seven of the last eight weeks red and net negative flows for roughly the last three or four months. The host says they are not sure why and hopes investors are looking at data and valuations, though they do not think that is happening. Solana ETFs were not as bad as Ethereum's but were slightly worse than Bitcoin's, with four of the last weeks red, following ten strong green weeks earlier. The host notes the three asset ETFs do not move in step.

The host says many people became nervous after a $6.3 billion hack at Binance, and that outflows since then total $15.4 billion as people pull crypto from the exchange. The host says the company reports that these holdings are only about 3% or 5% of its assets, but still calls the drainage substantial and does not know whether the money will return.

The host encourages people to take coins off exchanges, saying one should never leave a large amount of crypto on an exchange and should keep it somewhere safe, perhaps with a custodian if cold storage is not suitable.

The host then turns to good news: Bitcoin is still in a Bitcoin season, with altcoins hammered again. Over the last 90 days Bitcoin has outperformed a basket of the top 50 altcoins. November is only day three and is up 0.2%.

The host says the short-term holder average price is the level they watch most. Depending on how it is measured, support sits at around 75,000, 76,000, 77,000 or 78,000, and Bitcoin is staying above that level. The host says Bitcoin touched this level several times, was close to 78,000 during the live broadcast, and fell to this level in mid-September before rallying to 87,000 and then falling again.

The host says they are surprised by how resilient the ETFs and Bitcoin have been after events involving Coldcard and Binance. The host also reports that Bhutan apparently sold 95% of its holdings. Bhutan was one of the top ten holders in the world and, according to the host, sold everything.

A viewer asked whether SpaceX would fall if it announced a merger with Tesla, as Marvel and Lumentum did. The host says the Marvel and Lumentum deals were hit during a downdraft and investors did not see the synergy. Typically the acquiring company dips a little, but the host believes the synergy between Tesla and SpaceX means the outcome will be fine, and says Marvel and Lumentum are less understood than Bitcoin, Tesla or SpaceX.

The host also reports that, according to Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, Tether now holds 150,000 bitcoin, up from 100,000, which is more than all public companies except Strategy. The host calls it good news and says buying during a bear market is a good approach.

The host calls this probably the most important chart today. It looks at what has happened to Bitcoin after US midterm elections, using a chart credited to Quentyn. According to the chart, the Bitcoin cycle bottom came 71 days after the 2014 midterms, 39 days after the 2018 midterms, and one day after 2022.

The host says the bottom has historically come very close to the midterm elections, and that it has come about a year after the bull market tops. The host adds that cycles are compressing and bear markets are getting shorter, so this time may be different.

The host adds that cycles are compressing, with shorter bear markets and shallower drawdowns, so they think this time is different. They say the bottom is already in: lows around 60,000 in January 2026, with more bottoms in February and in summer 2026. The host expects that, as after past midterms, stocks and Bitcoin will rise again, and says that some politicians may want to shut Bitcoin down, but expects things to improve toward the end of the year.

The host says Solana has been the top chain by app revenue for seven straight months, with about $150 million in revenue, roughly 1.7 times what Ethereum apps generated. Solana and Ethereum together make up about 40% of all crypto app revenue.

The host points to a new player in the chart, Robinhood, which came out with a splash with tokenized stocks and a huge boom in September before fading back toward crypto.

The host says the stock market's fear and greed index is at extreme fear, unlike crypto, which sits at 25 or 26. The host says people are very worried about the stock market and that there are reasons for it.

Heading into the midterms, a big rebound is underway. The host calls this unusual because markets normally wait for certainty, and suggests the market may have bottomed after a rough month. Nearly everything is green today except Palantir, which had strong earnings yesterday but fell as investors sold even good results.

Nearly everything is green today except Palantir, which had strong earnings yesterday but fell as investors sold even good results. The host expects rotation to return to what the host calls the last trade.

Over the last month the host says Tesla was the only major name in green, up 6% despite a very bad month. Nvidia was down 13%, Broadcom down 8%, TSMC nearly 17%, Micron nearly 20%, AMD 22%, Marvell 37% and ALAB 32%. The host recalls buying Marvell and ALAB at the start of the year at about $75 and $80, and says ALAB rose to about 500 before falling to about 250. Google was down 20% for the month, its biggest drop in history, while SpaceX was down 70% and Palantir was down 10%.

Bitcoin was down 7%, ETH down 8.5%, SOL down 12% and MicroStrategy down 17.6%. The host says the SpaceX pair trade was looking toppy at 2.97 to one last week and expects that to reverse. The host says it has been a nasty month and that Q4 is normally good, but this year it was not.

The host says the S&P 500 has historically gained an average of 16.6% after midterms. Gridlock after midterms means no party holds power and no decisions can be made, and the host says markets tend to do better when government is out of the picture.

The host advises not to move to cash if in the stock market, noting that this is only what history suggests if it repeats.

The host says that since the ChatGPT moment four years ago, the AI trade and data centers have been the focus, and calls data center growth the new gold rush. The host says all growth in the US is tied to data centers and cites another chart making the same point that AI is the only economic engine in the US today. If data centers and the power plants feeding them were shut down, the host says, the US economy would enter a severe recession.

The host adds that AI capex is the only source of investment for construction, electrical jobs, chips, memory, turbines, grid gear and construction workers. The host says the economy is very concentrated, and that anyone trying to kill this industry wants a recession.

The host returns to the power shortage and points to SpaceX as the one player that hopes to bring 13 gigawatts of compute online within the next 14 months. To show the pace, the host lays out quarter-over-quarter growth: about 50% from June 2025 to September, about 70% from September to March, which the host notes covers one missed quarter, 40% from March to June, 21% from June to September, and a planned 76% from September to December, rising from 1.7 GW to 3 GW. The largest planned step is 333% growth from 3 GW to 13 GW by December 2027, which Elon Musk sounds very confident he can reach.

The largest jump in the chart is 333%, from 3 GW to 13 GW by December 2027. The host says Elon Musk sounds very confident he can reach that target.

The host says that if SpaceX does this and nobody else has access to power, it could charge whatever it wants for spot compute, and the numbers would be bonkers. The host's message is to get some SpaceX exposure. The host also notes Anthropic's IPO valuation has been revised down from about 2 trillion to about 1.5 trillion, and that OpenAI has also revised down its projections and valuations.

The host says Tesla's FSD subscriptions are growing, with over a year-plus growth of 70%, over 2 billion in pure profit, and average spending of over 100 per month per person. The host expects Europe to adopt FSD sometime in December or early spring 2027, and says Germany and Italy want it and France will be the last big one.

The host says Tesla's FSD subscriptions are the one bright spot of the past month, with growth of about 70% over the past year-plus. The host notes that this is more than 2 billion dollars in pure profit, and that the average person is spending over 100 a month on it.

The host also says the number of countries adopting FSD is growing rapidly, expecting Europe to come on board sometime in December or early spring 2027 as Germany and Italy want it and France is expected to be the last major market.

The host shows a chart on billionaires and poverty, saying billionaires are not popular during election times but the chart shows a halo effect. The host says the more billionaires a country has, the less poverty there is, with about a 98% correlation according to the chart. The host argues that chasing billionaires out leads to more poverty, and says they build companies, hire people and create millionaires, and that wealth does trickle down, contrary to popular belief.

The host closes with a meme seen on Discord about a potato becoming vodka, saying that if a potato can become vodka, anyone can become anything. The host says the big message is to be the best version of yourself and that nothing is ever impossible for anybody. The host thanks the team for turning the videos into podcasts and emails, thanks several named supporters, and says goodbye until tomorrow.