Takaichi Abruptly Cancels Yasukuni Shrine Visit

Japan officially listed Russia as a major threat to Japan in its Defense White Paper in early August. In response, Russia visited Etorofu Island, threatening Japan, which caused strong backlash within Japan.

Professor Hosaka Yuji explained, "Japan released a defense white paper in early August, and in it, Japan stated that Russia is a major threat to Japan."

Russia and China have been continuously conducting joint military exercises, and Japan perceives the two countries as threatening presences. Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi issued a strong protest statement on August 13th, signaling the possibility of forming a confrontational diplomatic stance against Russia.

Professor Hosaka Yuji stated, "Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi also issued a strong protest statement on August 13th. Japan has continuously felt that Russia and China are threatening presences."

One of the main reasons for the recent approximately 10% drop in the Takaichi cabinet's approval ratings is public opposition to a bill called the 'Imperial Household Law'. This bill, which effectively excludes female emperors, was passed hastily and caused dissatisfaction among the Japanese public. In particular, with Princess Aiko's favorability ratings exceeding 80%, the bill received even more criticism. Allegations of plagiarism and preferential admission for Prince Hisahito also affected the decline in approval ratings.

Professor Hosaka Yuji said, "One of the reasons why the Takaichi cabinet's approval ratings recently dropped by about 10% is a law called the Imperial Household Law. The content of that bill, which virtually excluded female emperors and was passed hastily, caused great dissatisfaction among the Japanese people."

Recently, the Takaichi cabinet's approval ratings have begun to rise again. This appears to be a result of the Japanese people's realistic choice of feeling that there is no suitable alternative to Prime Minister Takaichi, combined with the effectiveness of the government's tax cut policies.

Professor Hosaka Yuji analyzed, "Recently, approval ratings have started to rise again. Japanese people feel that there is no prime minister they can entrust with the role other than Takaichi, and because tax cut policies were implemented recently, approval ratings are starting to rise again."

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi had visited Yasukuni Shrine every year before taking office, and pledged that she would definitely visit even after becoming prime minister. Due to this, there were many predictions that she would visit on August 15th this year, but she did not actually do so.

Professor Hosaka Yuji reported, "There were many predictions that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi would probably visit Yasukuni Shrine on August 15th this year. This is because Prime Minister Takaichi had visited Yasukuni Shrine every year before becoming prime minister, and had campaigned pledging that she would definitely visit Yasukuni Shrine even after becoming prime minister."

Prime Minister Takaichi's restraint from directly visiting Yasukuni Shrine is interpreted as a strategic move considering relations with South Korea. This is because, in the current international situation, while Japan is in conflict with China, there is a need to build friendly relations with South Korea. Accordingly, it seems she chose a different method instead of a direct visit, conscious of South Korea's strong opposition.

Professor Hosaka Yuji commented, "While there is no major problem because of the conflict with China, there is a current international situation where friendly relations must be established with South Korea."

This year, instead of visiting the shrine directly, Prime Minister Takaichi performed 'yohai,' bowing towards Yasukuni Shrine from afar. This is the first instance of Sanae Takaichi performing yohai, and it is interpreted as a strategic move to rally her support base, implying the possibility of a direct visit if her approval ratings decline in the future.

Professor Hosaka Yuji explained, "Although she did not go to the shrine directly this time, she bowed towards Yasukuni Shrine from afar. This is called yohai."

Recently released U.S. secret documents contain content in which the U.S. government recognized Dokdo as Korean territory. This is related to the background that in the late 1940s, when the U.S. military used Dokdo as a bombing practice base, incidents of harm to Korean fishermen occurred, leading the U.S. to recognize Dokdo as Korean land. Japan is expected to try to claim sovereignty over Dokdo using the logic of the San Francisco Treaty.

Professor Hosaka Yuji stated, "The recently released U.S. secret documents. They contain content in which the U.S. government recognized Dokdo as Korean territory."

The fundamental cause of the weak yen is the significant interest rate differential with the United States. Currently, U.S. interest rates are around 3-3.5%, while Japanese interest rates are around 1-1.25%, resulting in a substantial interest rate gap of over 2%. This interest rate differential is accelerating global yen selling, leading to a record low yen.

Professor Hosaka Yuji explained, "The fundamental reason for the weak yen is the large interest rate differential with the United States."

The Bank of Japan and the Japanese government cannot easily raise interest rates. Under a long period of low-interest rates, households and corporations that have taken out loans are facing increased interest burdens. If interest rates are raised, there is a risk of a surge in personal bankruptcies and corporate insolvencies. This could severely impact the entire Japanese economy, leading to a cautious approach to interest rate hikes.

Professor Hosaka Yuji pointed out, "The Bank of Japan and the Japanese government cannot easily raise interest rates. If they do, personal bankruptcies and corporate insolvencies among Japanese people will increase."