Amid reports of easing U.S.-Iran war risks, the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets are experiencing increased volatility, highlighting the importance of materials, parts, and equipment (Sobu-jang) stocks.
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Manager Baek In-yeop announced that he recommended BHI (BHI) on the TV show 'Yongho Sangbak' and BH stock in the VIP family room, earning significant profits. In particular, BH stock surged more than 13% in a single day, providing high returns to investors.
Recently, in the KOSPI market, despite foreign investors net selling 3.9499 trillion won, individual investors net bought 1.1410 trillion won, and institutional investors net bought 1.2252 trillion won. The rise in the index despite large-scale selling by foreigners indicates that the sell-off was well absorbed by the market, and there was no movement by foreign investors to suppress bid prices.
The KOSPI market saw three consecutive trading days of foreign selling, with cumulative sales reaching approximately 8 trillion won. In contrast, the KOSDAQ market experienced net foreign buying for two consecutive days. Given these supply and demand dynamics, Manager Baek In-yeop predicted that the KOSDAQ market is likely to lead the stock market this week.
Samsung Electronics' announcement of a 15 trillion won share buyback appears to have confirmed the stock's bottom. This announcement suggests the possibility of a KOSPI market led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix starting tomorrow. Furthermore, Samsung Electronics' rebound is expected to lead to a concomitant rise in semiconductor Sobu-jang related stocks, which is projected to have a positive impact on the overall market.
Manager Baek In-yeop stated, "Tomorrow could be a KOSPI market centered on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Since KOSDAQ rose significantly today, it seems Samsung Electronics has confirmed its bottom," expressing an optimistic view on Samsung Electronics' stock movement.
These movements could serve as an opportunity to redirect investor attention, which has been focused on the KOSDAQ market, back to KOSPI. Samsung Electronics' share buyback contributes to enhancing shareholder value and stabilizing stock prices, raising expectations for a market recovery led by large-cap stocks.
Especially coupled with expectations for an improvement in the semiconductor industry, semiconductor Sobu-jang companies are evaluated as having great potential for growth, bolstered by Samsung Electronics' performance recovery. Investors need to closely monitor the performance and supply-demand trends of these companies to formulate investment strategies.
Hanmi Pharmaceutical's stock movement is analyzed to have a significant impact on the entire biotech sector. Manager Baek In-yeop emphasized the linkage between Hanmi Pharmaceutical's stock price and the biotech sector, stating, "If Hanmi Pharmaceutical hits the upper limit again tomorrow, then biotech will be good. But if you think in reverse, if Hanmi Pharmaceutical cannot go up, biotech will fall." The fact that Hanmi Pharmaceutical's stock performance fell short of expectations despite announcing technology transfer achievements reflects the market's sentiment towards the biotech sector.
The phenomenon of Hanmi Pharmaceutical's stock price falling despite signing a 3.5 trillion won technology transfer contract points to a structural problem in South Korea's biotech market. Manager Baek In-yeop stated, "A 3.5 trillion won technology transfer, and the stock price doesn't move. This is, frankly, a structural problem of Korea's biotech. It's not a stock issue. It's a problem of individual investors' sentiment and distrust in the biotech market." He diagnosed that it's not an issue with individual stocks, but rather individual investors' sentiment and distrust in the overall biotech market being reflected in the stock price.
It has been suggested that the upfront payment of approximately 260 billion won from Hanmi Pharmaceutical's technology transfer agreement could be recognized as revenue within the year. Manager Baek In-yeop explained, "The 260 billion won takes about 30 days after the review period. Under the premise that it proceeds normally, it will be recognized as revenue within the year. You can consider almost all of it to be recognized as operating profit." He clarified that most of the amount will be reflected as operating profit after deducting expenses. This scenario is possible if the review process proceeds normally.
An analysis suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) might freeze benchmark interest rates this year. This view is linked to former President Donald Trump's desire for interest rate cuts and his appointments to the Fed. Manager Baek In-yeop commented, "Looking at the will of the U.S. government, I think the Fed might not proceed with benchmark interest rates this year. I believe Mr. Kevin Hassett is mindful of Trump," raising the possibility that Fed officials like Kevin Hassett might consider Trump's intentions.
Furthermore, the U.S. government is showing a policy stance to lower Treasury bond yields, such as through long-term Treasury buybacks, which could influence the Fed's interest rate policy decisions. Given that former President Trump criticized the Fed's independence and pressured for rate cuts during his term, there is a forecast that such political pressure could be reflected in the current Fed's monetary policy.
Market experts believe these factors will combine to lead the Fed to adopt a cautious stance. Especially ahead of the presidential election, Trump's statements and the U.S. government's policy direction will be key concerns for investors.
Reports indicate significant progress in U.S.-Iran talks to end the war, mediated by Pakistan. These reports also include discussions about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Manager Baek In-yeop explained, "I told you that if articles about easing U.S.-Iran war risks came out, the market would sharply rebound. The fact that such reports came out of Pakistan suggests that Trump is also likely to make some favorable statements related to this on social media." He implied that easing war risks would be a significant catalyst for a sharp market rebound.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy officially stated that it is not true that South Korea and the U.S. are jointly investing to acquire a stake in Westinghouse. However, despite the government's denial, nuclear power-related stocks have not fallen and are instead maintaining market expectations. Manager Baek In-yeop commented, "The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said it's not true that Korea and the U.S. are jointly investing to acquire a stake in Westinghouse. But personally, I think there's no smoke without fire," pointing out the discrepancy between the government's position and the market's reaction.
It has been analyzed that Westinghouse in the U.S. is informally pursuing an IPO, and collaboration with Korean companies is essential due to insufficient nuclear power plant construction capabilities. Manager Baek In-yeop explained, "Korea Electric Power Technology (KEPCO E&C) handles nuclear power plant design, and U.S. Westinghouse, which manufactures key components, is currently informally pursuing an IPO. However, Westinghouse itself lacks construction capabilities for nuclear power plants. So, they need to collaborate with Korean companies." Consequently, domestic nuclear power-related stocks such as Hyundai Engineering & Construction (nuclear power plant construction), Doosan Enerbility (key component manufacturing), and BHI and G2Power (equipment and materials) are drawing attention.
BHI's nuclear power sales accounted for a mere 3.7% in Q1, but its main business, HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator), is benefiting from a shortage in the gas turbine market. Manager Baek In-yeop explained, "I educated everyone on BHI last time. Its nuclear power sales proportion is not actually that large. BHI's main business is heat recovery steam boilers, which are HRSGs." He emphasized that BHI's stock price increase is driven more by its HRSG business than nuclear power.
In the cosmetics and aesthetic sector, Classys, PharmaResearch, and Hugel were mentioned as the top three aesthetic leaders and showed strength. Furthermore, ODM (Original Development Manufacturer) companies like Kolmar Korea, Cosmax, and Cosmecca Korea reached all-time highs, attracting market attention. Manager Baek In-yeop emphasized, "I even starred the two leaders in cosmetics in red: Kolmar Korea, Cosmax, and Cosmecca Korea—these three stocks hit it big. ODM companies are like foundries in the semiconductor industry." He likened these ODM companies to the semiconductor foundry business model.
In the past, Korean cosmetics companies heavily relied on the Chinese market, but now it's difficult to make a profit due to intensified competition from local Chinese companies. Silicon2, however, is evaluated to have achieved successful results by adopting a strategy that excludes Chinese sales. This strategy is interpreted as an effective response considering the high intensity of competition in the Chinese market.
PSK, Jeju Semiconductor, and HPSP were highlighted as stocks to watch in the semiconductor Sobu-jang (materials, parts, and equipment) sector. HPSP, in particular, is a high-pressure hydrogen annealing equipment company, recording a high operating profit margin exceeding 60% in the second quarter, drawing significant investor attention.
Manager Baek In-yeop stated, "The first stock in the best top 3 for semiconductor Sobu-jang. PSK is one of the stocks you should be eyeing right now. And HPSP, which is high-pressure hydrogen annealing equipment, has a very good operating profit margin. Its Q2 operating profit margin is over 60%," highly evaluating the potential of these stocks.
These companies provide core technologies and equipment for the semiconductor industry, and are expected to directly benefit from industry growth. PSK enhances semiconductor process efficiency based on its Peer Strip technology, and Jeju Semiconductor is evaluated to have significant growth potential as a fabless company. HPSP's high-pressure hydrogen annealing equipment is essential technology for improving semiconductor device performance, leading the market with its high technological capabilities.
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