After a significant drop, the KOSPI and KOSDAQ indices have formed short-term bottoms, and there is a possibility that the leading sector will shift from semiconductors to physical AI.
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The stock market has recently undergone a deep correction. KOSPI fell approximately 40% from its peak, and KOSDAQ recorded a 50% drop from its peak, effectively halving its value. This index decline means that individual stocks have fallen by at least half or more.
From a technical and supply-demand perspective, the market is evaluated to have formed a short-term bottom. This week, in particular, the KOSPI index showed a significant turning point in its trend by consecutively breaking through the important 20-day and 120-day moving averages. These two lines, representing short-term supply and demand and medium-term trend respectively, are interpreted as positive signals for the market.
Foreigners played a crucial role in the recent market bottoming. Foreign investors net bought nearly 10 trillion KRW in the KOSPI market this week alone, supporting the market's bottom. This was largely a result of absorbing selling volumes from individual investors, acting as a factor that strengthened confidence in a market bottom.
Looking only at the Korean market might miss the bigger picture. While the Korean stock market fell 40%, the US market, in contrast, recorded new highs, experiencing only a shallow correction of around 10% before rising again. This difference is due to the Korean market's high semiconductor concentration and the scale of leveraged ETF investments. The decline in the semiconductor industry and losses from leveraged ETFs are analyzed as major reasons for the larger decline in the Korean stock market.
To make sound investments, one must consider the overall global stock market trends. The global stock markets are currently heading towards new highs, and the earnings of companies within the US S&P 500 index are significantly exceeding market expectations. Amidst this global boom, the decline in the Korean stock market is closer to an illusion caused by the semiconductor industry's weight and the impact of leveraged ETFs. Improved earnings are the most reliable indicator for anticipating a rising stock market.
Samsung Electronics and Hynix will ultimately rise, but short-term, they are likely to remain within a box range. Individual investors have purchased over 100 trillion KRW worth of Hynix shares at 2.5 million, 2.7 million, and 3 million KRW, and Samsung Electronics shares at over 300,000 KRW. Breaking through this resistance level would require over 100 trillion KRW in new purchases, which could take considerable time.
As Samsung Electronics and Hynix are expected to remain in a box range short-term, an analysis suggests the need for a new group of leading stocks to drive the market. The emergence of new sectors when existing leaders lose momentum is expected to inject vitality into the market.
Changes in leading stock trends are also being detected in the US market. While semiconductor companies led the market until the first half of this year, after the recent market correction, big tech companies are now contributing to new highs. Companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia, which had rested for a long time, are approaching new highs again, driving the market's ascent.
As AI companies continue to show strong performance, the possibility of a 'hyper-bubble cycle' beginning is being raised. The anticipated bubble market from late last year seemed to falter briefly with the recent market downturn, but the robust earnings announcements from AI-related companies suggest that this bubble market could indeed be starting. This could provide new momentum for the investment market.
Even as individual investors' stock buying funds, customer deposits, are decreasing, the market is being supported by foreign buying. This shows that foreign investors are filling the market's insufficient liquidity and providing upward momentum.
While the semiconductor industry is showing sideways movement, analysis suggests that the 'physical AI' sector has the potential to lead the market. Representative companies include those in the Hyundai Motor Group and robotics-related firms, which, though having a small impact on the index, can show much stronger movements than the overall market. Physical AI refers to AI that operates in the real physical world.
The recent supply and demand structure in the stock market has been characterized by foreign buying and individual selling. This shift in supply and demand suggests that market leadership is moving from individuals to foreigners, which can significantly influence market trends. In particular, the large-scale buying by foreigners is interpreted as an important signal for the market bottoming out.
This week, a clear shift in supply and demand towards the physical AI related sector was observed. This shows that investors are looking for new growth engines beyond existing leading stocks like semiconductors. It reflects the expectation that the physical AI sector will be a key driver of the future market.
It will likely be difficult for the semiconductor industry to create another market boom. There is a strong resistance level, and breaking through it would require massive new buying. In contrast, the new area within AI with the greatest upside potential is identified as robotics-based physical AI. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also emphasizes the potential of this field, and it is predicted that, according to market principles, an unquantifiable surge will occur.
The stock market always anticipates the future. When new industries like physical AI blossom, the start of mass production becomes the most crucial momentum. If mass production is confirmed or begins, stock prices can rise enormously. If the mass production of millions of robots becomes a reality, expectations are growing that a stock price increase similar to, or even greater than, Hynix's tenfold rise could occur in the physical AI sector.
OpenAI and Anthropic (Claude), two key AI companies currently unlisted, are scheduled to go public starting this October. Their corporate values are already being discussed at the level of 1 trillion to 3 trillion dollars. The US government considers the success of these companies' IPOs very important to secure AI hegemony and avoid falling behind China. A successful listing at a high valuation is expected to facilitate a virtuous cycle of funding.
As AI expands into the real world, the value of 'action data'-based tokenization is gaining significant attention. Action data-based tokens are overwhelmingly superior in scale and importance compared to computer-task-based tokenization. Beyond simple document creation or mouse operations, data generated through actual physical actions will have a much greater impact on AI development.
Chinese robot company Unitree is expected to list with a high public offering price, with a corporate value likely to be around 12 trillion KRW. Currently, interest in Unitree shares is so high in China that it's difficult to buy them. After listing, its corporate value could reach 40 to 50 trillion KRW, becoming an important barometer and index for the global humanoid robot market. Unitree's listing is expected to significantly stimulate investment sentiment in the worldwide robot market.
The Unitree listing is expected to have a positive impact on South Korean companies, with Hyundai Motor Group in particular expected to be a key beneficiary. Hyundai Motor recently rose 9.8%, breaking through its long-term moving average, and Hyundai Mobis also approached its medium-term moving average. Furthermore, Robotis, a robotics company similar to Unitree and a supplier of actuators, is also expected to be most significantly affected. SPG, a reducer manufacturer, also saw its stock price rise sharply, creating a positive atmosphere across robot-related stocks.
From now on, only 'truly' legitimate companies with physical AI and robotics will see strong stock movements. While all robot-related stocks moved together in the latter half of last year and the first half of this year, in the future, companies with mass production capability will attract market attention. Just as Tesla aims for mass production of tens of millions of robots, the true value of a robot company will be determined by its ability to mass-produce actual products.
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