AI Development Halt Theory Hits Investor Sentiment

Analysis suggests that the likelihood of Big Tech companies halting AI development or reducing investment is virtually zero. This is due to competitive game theory among major companies like OpenAI, where if one company reduces investment, others can quickly widen the gap. The fact that China will not stop development even if a US research institute exercises restraint in AI development also supports this analysis.

In the current climate of poor investment sentiment, such issues create additional anxiety. However, the movement in the perpetual futures market, which is primarily driven by individual investors, is likely to be limited, and volatility may ease when the main market opens.

This could be a 'kicking away the ladder' strategy, forming entry barriers for new startups through high regulation. Furthermore, the possibility that it is being used as a strategic justification to encourage stricter AI regulations in China cannot be ruled out.

This could be an attempt to collude the market and maximize profits at the current level. Ultimately, it can be seen as an attempt to create a regulatory environment favorable to existing dominant players.

Former President Donald Trump maintains that it is important to win in the AI industry. He has expressed skepticism about overly negative AI regulation theories. This is interpreted as reflecting a strong national will to foster the AI industry.

However, market distrust suggests that it will take at least two years for such positive forecasts to actually be proven. The time lag between sharp stock declines and the demonstration of fundamentals creates a situation that demands considerable hardship and patience from investors.