"Protect Your Own Lives" Earthquake and Volcano Warnings

While simultaneous earthquakes have recently been observed worldwide, Professor Kim Ki-beom stated that it is difficult to conclude that these phenomena have a direct causal relationship. He believes there is still insufficient scientific evidence that earthquakes in widely separated regions, such as those in Venezuela and Japan, trigger a chain reaction.

Most earthquakes in the Pacific Ring of Fire are generally considered to be the result of distinct tectonic activities in different regions, and experts agree that it is difficult to explain all earthquakes with a single cause.

Professor Kim Ki-beom warned that using only the distance from an ocean trench as a criterion for assessing earthquake potential is dangerous. He cited the Kumamoto earthquake in Japan, which occurred on land 200 km from the trench, and the Flores and Myanmar earthquakes, which also occurred in rear areas far from trenches.

These cases suggest the need to move away from simple distance-based forecasting systems and to assess earthquake potential by considering complex factors within the Earth's crust.

Professor Kim Ki-beom emphasized that the East Coast of the Korean Peninsula is not safe from earthquakes, citing the M7.6 earthquake that occurred on Japan's Noto Peninsula on January 1, 2024. Despite being 600 km from the trench, the Noto Peninsula earthquake caused over 700 deaths.

This demonstrates that one cannot simply feel safe because of distance, especially considering that Korea's southeastern regions, such as Busan, are approximately 500 km from the Nankai Trough.

Professor Kim pointed out the uncertainty of earthquake prediction, warning that large-scale earthquakes can occur at any time, even in areas that have not experienced them in the past.

Therefore, he conveyed the message that the Korean Peninsula must also heighten its vigilance regarding earthquake preparedness.

Following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the Japanese government completely shifted its disaster prevention policy to prepare for unpredictable mega-earthquakes. It now always assumes the scenario of the largest possible earthquake and develops disaster countermeasures based on the worst-case scenario.

While some criticize this as instigating excessive fear, like the 'Boy Who Cried Wolf,' the Japanese government is committed to thoroughly preparing for any eventuality based on past lessons. For example, a mega-earthquake in the Hokkaido Sanriku sea area is projected to cause up to 199,000 deaths.

Three research teams from Tohoku University, Hokkaido University, and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) collaborated to provide scientific evidence supporting worst-case earthquake scenarios. They published related papers this year in 'Communications Earth & Environment,' a Nature-affiliated journal.

They also stated in a Mainichi Shimbun interview that there is a possibility of mega-earthquakes occurring every 400 years, emphasizing that the Japanese government's disaster prevention policies are based on scientific data.

Professor Kim Ki-beom explained the scientific principle of major earthquake occurrence as the accumulation of energy in fault locked zones. The Pacific Plate moves approximately 8 cm annually towards Japan's Sanriku coast, and since no major earthquakes have occurred in this region for the past 400 years, over 30 meters of deformation energy has accumulated.

He warned that if this energy is released all at once in a fault locked zone where the plates are stuck without earthquake occurrence, there is a very high probability of an earthquake larger than past magnitudes.

The Japanese government, while revealing a worst-case scenario of 200,000 estimated deaths in the event of a mega-earthquake, explains that this is not to incite fear but to set disaster prevention policy standards to the worst possible situation. The goal is to reduce estimated deaths to 30,000 and to eliminate deaths from exposure by strategically placing winter clothing and other supplies.

This policy direction reflects the Japanese government's strong will to raise public awareness of earthquakes, encourage practical preparations, and minimize damage even in the worst disaster scenarios.

The M7.6 earthquake that struck Japan's west coast in January 2024 caused over 700 deaths, leading to a significant shift in the Japanese government's approach to disaster prevention. The damage was exacerbated by inadequate preparedness in this region, which had rarely experienced earthquakes in the past.

Following this event, the Japanese government adopted the stance that all regions must prepare for worst-case scenarios, regardless of the perceived likelihood of earthquakes in specific areas.

This served to heighten awareness that large-scale disasters can occur anytime, anywhere, and resulted in stricter disaster prevention policy standards.

Professor Kim Ki-beom warned of a potential chain reaction between major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, citing the 1707 Hoei earthquake in Japan, after which Mount Fuji erupted 49 days later. Scientific analysis suggests that ground tremors from the earthquake triggered gas emissions from the magma chamber beneath Mount Fuji, leading to the eruption.

This historical example increased trust in the causal relationship between earthquakes and volcanic activity among Japanese scientists and the public, intensifying concerns about a potential Mount Fuji eruption following a major earthquake today.

According to recent observations in Japan, a magma chamber beneath Mount Fuji, comparable in size to the 1707 Hoei eruption, has been confirmed. The Japan Meteorological Agency continuously monitors Mount Fuji's magma activity through seismographs and gas detection facilities.

While there is currently no gas leakage, this indicates that the internal pressure of the magma chamber is sealed. Warnings suggest that if a large earthquake occurs nearby, this pressure could be released all at once, leading to a massive explosion.

Professor Kim Ki-beom reported that a research team from Kobe University in Japan confirmed a large magma reservoir of approximately 220 km³ beneath the Kikai Caldera, south of Kyushu. This volume of magma is about twice the size of Mount Baekdu's millennial super-eruption.

Past eruptions of the Kikai Caldera were powerful enough to destroy civilizations near Kyushu, and the current large magma reservoir suggests the possibility of another large-scale eruption.

Professor Kim Ki-beom warned that if a large-scale volcanic eruption occurs in Japan, the southeastern region of the Korean Peninsula could suffer direct damage from volcanic ash fallout. He cited past instances where volcanic ash, 10-20 cm thick, was found in the Hapcheon Chogye Basin, having originated from Kyushu, Japan.

This means that if a volcano in the Kyushu region erupts, at least 10-20 cm of volcanic ash could fall on the southeastern Korean Peninsula. With 3 cm of ash accumulation, Tokyo is expected to suffer devastating damage, paralyzing urban functions; thus, Korea's southeastern region could face a much more severe situation.

Volcanic ash can paralyze air travel, damage crops, and cause widespread socio-economic harm such as respiratory illnesses, necessitating thorough preparedness.

Particularly in agriculture-centered regions, livelihoods could be destroyed, and severe disruptions to power and communication networks could occur.

Previously, the prevailing hypothesis was that Japanese volcanic ash would mostly spread eastward due to the westerlies, having little impact on the Korean Peninsula. However, Professor Kim Ki-beom pointed out that this hypothesis could be broken in the event of a super-volcanic eruption.

Unlike westerlies, which only affect the stratosphere, a super-eruption that reaches the mesosphere (approximately 35 km above ground) is not affected by westerlies, meaning volcanic ash can spread in all directions in a concentric pattern. This provides scientific evidence that the Korean Peninsula is also not safe from volcanic ash fallout.

"An eruption occurred in a place where it passed, and it went up to the mesosphere where the westerlies don't blow, so the volcanic ash spreads out from the volcano in all directions, covering the same distance. It's not that because it's perfectly in the westerlies region, the volcanic ash only goes westward."

Kim Ki-beom, Professor

Recently, over 70 earthquakes occurred in the Haenam area of Jeollanam-do over ten days, raising concerns about the Korean Peninsula's earthquake safety. Professor Kim Ki-beom explained that this region belongs to the 'Okcheon Belt' within the Korean Peninsula's tectonic structure. The Okcheon Belt is a fault line extending from Taebaeksan in Gangwon-do to Haenam, and earthquakes have been recorded in the same area in 2020.

This suggests the presence of active faults on the Korean Peninsula and the continuous possibility of earthquakes. Ongoing observation and research into seismic activity in the Korean Peninsula's interior are necessary.

Frequent earthquakes indicate instability in the region's crust and raise analyses that they could be precursors to a potential large-scale earthquake.

Therefore, seismic activity in the Haenam region must no longer be overlooked but recognized as a critical issue.

Professor Kim Ki-beom raised the question of what would happen if an earthquake of similar magnitude to the M7.6 quake on Japan's Noto Peninsula occurred near Korea's coast. Current countermeasures for earthquakes in Korean waters are inadequate, and there is controversy over whether current response capabilities are sufficient compared to past research.

Professor Kim emphasized the urgent need for public awareness of earthquakes and for the government to establish practical preparedness measures. Especially since marine earthquakes can cause secondary damage like tsunamis, even more thorough preparedness is required.

He pointed out the need for realistic disaster drills and infrastructure construction based on actual damage cases.

Professor Kim Ki-beom shared a scientific view on the possibility of Mount Baekdu erupting. Mount Baekdu is an active volcano where small-scale eruptions can occur at any time, but he believes the likelihood of a super-eruption, like the millennial eruption that occurred in 946 AD, recurring is low. This also refutes claims such as the 100-year cycle theory.

While magma activity beneath Mount Baekdu is continuously observed, experts analyze that a much longer time is needed to accumulate energy on the scale of the past millennial eruption.

Therefore, preparedness for small-scale eruptions is necessary, but it is important to approach the issue based on scientific evidence rather than fostering excessive fear.