As US-Iran tensions deepen, US import prices unexpectedly fell in July on lower international oil prices, while high interest rates and a surge in Treasury yields are showing signs of slowing the real estate and tech stock markets.
This dismisses some expectations of possible nuclear negotiations with Iran and is interpreted as a reaffirmation of the US's hardline response toward Iran. Trump's remarks could further heighten tensions in the Middle East.
Trump claimed that the Strait of Hormuz is operating normally and that all mines previously laid along major shipping lanes have been removed. At the same time, he personally released an image of a map marking the waterway as a new US territory, further escalating tensions in the region. The claim is seen as a strong statement of the US position on international maritime security.
This decline in import prices can be seen as a positive signal for easing inflationary pressure.
In particular, import prices for advanced IT products have risen for four consecutive months, showing that inflationary pressure persists in certain sectors. This suggests that price trends differ between the energy sector and other industrial sectors.
The tentative home sales index shows sales of existing homes where contracts have been signed but transactions are not yet completed, indicating that existing home sales may decline going forward. The high-rate environment appears to be suppressing housing demand and causing a broader slowdown in the real estate market.
This was driven by a combination of fiscal deficit concerns across countries and the shock of high oil prices. The sharp rise in long-term Treasury yields raises borrowing costs, placing direct pressure on growth stocks such as tech and semiconductor shares and weighing on the broader market.
Yardeni's analysis gives investors a benchmark for assessing current market conditions.
Answers come from the transcript, with the exact spot cited.
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