California High-Speed Rail: 18 Years of Delays

The official estimated cost currently targeted by the High-Speed Rail Authority is $126.1 billion. The available funding secured so far is around $39 billion (approximately 54 trillion won).

Currently, 89 miles of guideway and 65 structures have been completed out of the 119-mile construction section. The first service segment, from South Merced to North Bakersfield, is targeted for 2033, and full service for the entire route is scheduled for 2040.

Lectrochem explained, "Money already spent is what economists call a sunk cost. That money will not come back, whether the project continues or stops," emphasizing that already invested costs should be considered sunk costs when deciding whether to continue the project. Meanwhile, the figure of $26.9 billion represents an estimate of economic output effects, which differs from the actual expenditures.

According to an analysis by the US GAO (Government Accountability Office), high-speed rail can be competitive with air travel for distances between 100 and 500 miles. However, the introduction of robotaxis could change this competitive landscape. Lectrochem explained, "If robotaxis become cheap enough and can be called anytime, people will take a robotaxi from home to the airport. After flying, they'll take another robotaxi from the arrival airport to their final destination," noting that robotaxis could significantly improve airport accessibility and solve 'first mile' and 'last mile' problems. Especially in the decentralized urban structure of the U.S., the utility of robotaxis could be maximized.

A counterargument has also been raised that the advancement of robotaxis cannot solve all transportation problems. Lectrochem pointed out, "There's a problem robotaxis, no matter how advanced, cannot solve: road capacity. Even if there are no drivers, the space a single car occupies on the road remains the same," explaining that the proliferation of robotaxis could lead to increased road congestion and more empty vehicle travel (deadheading). Considering these limitations, rail, capable of mass transit, can form a complementary relationship with robotaxis. For example, the possibility of increasing transportation efficiency has been suggested by using robotaxis for travel to the train station and connecting long-distance journeys with high-speed rail. In this way, if high-speed rail and robotaxis leverage their respective strengths and cooperate, the efficiency of future transportation systems could be maximized.

Lectrochem emphasized, "For a project 18 years old, I believe it's time to prove again whether it will truly be worth the money going forward, rather than continuing just because it has come this far." He added that it's essential to clearly analyze future value and cost-benefit ratios without being tied to past sunk costs. For this project to gain justification for continued推進, it must demonstrate traffic efficiency and economic effects that offset additional future costs.