Lee Jae-myung Faces Intra-Party Criticism and Declining Approval Ratings

People Power Party lawmakers have consistently opposed the semi-linked proportional representation system. They point out that controversy persists because, after its introduction, the Democratic Party criticized the creation of satellite parties but ultimately exploited the system to create them. This situation is highly likely to repeat in the 22nd general election, following the 21st, and there are calls for urgent discussion on abolishing the system.

During this meeting, Governor Lee Jae-myung was confirmed to have said, "It would be great if the Basic Income Party could get a few proportional seats in next year's general election." This remark is linked to Representative Yong Hye-in actually becoming a proportional representative lawmaker twice, fueling suspicions of a political alliance.

This is interpreted as a lack of will for institutional improvement and an evasion of political responsibility, leading to criticism that the repeated creation of satellite parties by the Democratic Party is Lee Jae-myung's responsibility.

It is virtually impossible for the Democratic Party of Korea to secure 180 seats independently in the general election. 180 seats are known as the number required to railroad bills, and for this, the DP's alliance with minor parties, including the Rebuilding Korea Party, is essential. This is analyzed as a strategic choice for the DP to achieve its political goals.

This is a comprehensive bill that includes not only local constituency lawmakers but also proportional representatives, and can be interpreted as a political move targeting a nominee for Minister of Justice. Some analysts also suggest that Representative Yong's proposal is an expression of dissatisfaction based on political calculations.

When Lee Jae-myung was the governor of Gyeonggi Province, individuals advocating for basic income, such as Representative Yong Hye-in, joined the provincial administration, creating points of contact. This relationship likely led to cooperation in various election-related matters, such as presidential elections, and is analyzed as having the nature of political compensation or quid pro quo. In particular, as Lee Jae-myung faced the risk of resignation, a sense of being a creditor likely arose from this relationship.

When a political prediction is made and it proves accurate, it can become a powerful political weapon. Former lawmaker Na Kyung-won's past prediction of three terms as a proportional representative accurately coming true demonstrates such a case. Some also predict that three terms as a proportional representative would be unreasonable unless the Democratic Party holds a general election.

The Justice Party did not create a satellite party in the 21st general election, nor did it participate in one. As a result, the Justice Party was relegated to an extra-parliamentary party. Due to the Cho Kuk scandal and the satellite party issue, the Justice Party's standing has significantly fallen, making satellite parties feel like 'enemies' to the Justice Party.

Because of this background, the Justice Party's criticism of satellite parties goes beyond simple criticism and is directly linked to whether it will participate in a satellite party in the next general election. The Justice Party strongly opposes the Democratic Party's moves to secure seats through satellite parties, revealing a fundamental difference in political orientations and interests between the two parties.

The Justice Party argues that the satellite party system weakens the position of minor parties and distorts public opinion, demanding fundamental improvements to the system. Since this issue is directly related to the political survival of minor parties, the difference in positions with the Democratic Party is unlikely to be easily narrowed.

Instead, I believe the President was backstabbed by the prosecution." While these remarks outwardly seem to defend leader Lee Jae-myung, they can actually be interpreted as mocking (or dismissing) Lee. This is Representative Jeong Cheong-rae's political rhetoric, showing Lee Jae-myung's attempt to distance himself from the direction of prosecutorial reform while also reflecting the movements of internal critics within the party.

Leader Lee Jae-myung himself must be aware that the issue of prosecutorial investigative powers has emerged as the number one factor in negative evaluations, negatively impacting his approval rating. Lee's ambiguous stance on issues such as prosecutorial organizational reform or adjustment of investigative powers is deepening conflicts with the pro-Moon faction within the party.

In particular, the issue of prosecutorial investigative powers is of high public interest, and evading responsibility or taking a double-faced stance on it leads to political burdens. Representative Jeong Cheong-rae's remarks exemplify that Lee Jae-myung is facing various pressures and criticisms both inside and outside the party regarding the issue of prosecutorial reform.

Regarding the trend of abolishing prosecutorial investigative powers, there is a heightened sense of insecurity among young people, reflecting their sensitivity to safety. The current government is responding by establishing joint investigation headquarters and maintaining investigative personnel, emphasizing its will to eradicate crime by calling it 'deterioration' rather than 'reform' of the prosecution. This shows internal differences within the ruling party regarding the strategy for maintaining the prosecutorial organization.

From Lee Jae-myung's perspective, it is highly likely that weakening the prosecution's investigative powers could create problems for his long-term general election and presidential election strategy. Representative Jeong Cheong-rae's 'backstab' remark is not merely mocking Lee Jae-myung, but can be interpreted as a 'build-up' for Lee's future political moves. In other words, it could be a mechanism to provide a reason if Lee Jae-myung shows a passive attitude towards prosecutorial reform.

Ultimately, discussions on the function and role of the prosecution require complex political calculations from both the ruling and opposition parties. Leader Lee Jae-myung appears to be in a dilemma between his supporters' demands for prosecutorial reform and realistic political advantages and disadvantages. This suggests that discussions on the future direction of the prosecutorial organization will become even more acute.

Attorney Won listed practical policy failure cases such as real estate issues, the South Korea-US alliance, security, and exchange rates, emphasizing, "The reason Lee Jae-myung's approval rating is falling is not because he didn't embrace Cho Kuk or the Moon-Cho-Trello. The problem is policy failure. The problem is that people's livelihoods are difficult." This logic suggests that the issue is not about embracing certain individuals, but about the people's livelihoods determining approval ratings, leading to criticism of Lee Jae-myung's leadership and policy capabilities.

During the Moon Jae-in administration, there was a case of independent troop deployment amidst conflicts between the United States and Iran. In particular, extending the operational radius of the Cheonghae Unit stationed in the Gulf of Aden to the Strait of Hormuz shows that operational changes were possible without parliamentary consent.

The Moon Jae-in administration has a history of deploying a total of four units overseas: the Akh, Cheonghae, Dongmyeong, and Hanbit Units. This suggests that if Lee Jae-myung pushes for troop deployment, he might try to secure legitimacy by citing past precedents. However, if such deployment decisions are made without national consensus or sufficient discussion, they could lead to political controversy.

Representative Yoon Kun-young's remarks are interpreted as a warning shot from the pro-Moon faction towards leader Lee Jae-myung. As a key pro-Moon figure, his statements are read as a clear signal of non-cooperation regarding the dismissal of Lee Jae-myung's indictment. This attitude from the pro-Moon faction is further complicating Lee Jae-myung's political standing.

This is coupled with the complex concerns of metropolitan area lawmakers who fear a backlash in the general election. Analysis suggests that the pro-Moon faction's non-cooperation goes beyond Lee Jae-myung's personal problems and could affect the Democratic Party's overall general election strategy.

Some also criticize Lee Jae-myung for having missed the opportunity to dismiss the indictment himself early in his term. This is interpreted to mean that Lee's delay intensified pressure from the pro-Moon faction and is cited as a significant cause of intra-party conflict.

This point overlaps with the Roh Moo-hyun administration era, signaling a political crisis.

In such a crisis, it is predicted that leader Lee Jae-myung is likely to choose a 'political crackdown' targeting not only the opposition but also the ruling party to overcome the crisis. This is an attempt to regain political initiative through political pressure, which could exacerbate political instability.

Therefore, Lee Jae-myung's declining approval rating is not merely a numerical problem but a crucial indicator foreshadowing future state administration methods and the deepening of political conflict.

This change in stance is analyzed as making statements that do not conflict with the intentions of the appointing authority, given that he has assumed a public office.

The host mentioned that nominee Kim emphasized his change in stance, stating, "Candidate Kim strongly agrees with the grand principle of criminal justice reform, which is the separation of investigation and prosecution. He announced this yesterday." This is interpreted as nominee Kim's willingness to align with the current government's stance rather than political neutrality to fulfill his role as the head of the Central Investigation Agency.

With the nomination of Kim Ji-yong as the head of the Central Investigation Agency, the control tower for investigations has been established, signaling the imminent arrival of a crackdown phase once the agency begins its full-scale investigations. Attorney Won Young-seop explained and emphasized the role of the CIA, stating, "Now, for investigations, the control tower has been set. From now on, the CIA will investigate."

However, strong opposition continues from the mainstream activist faction within the Democratic Party against Kim Ji-yong, who was formerly a prosecutor-loyalist. In particular, additional verification reports are interpreted as evidence of this internal political resistance. Analysis suggests that the launch of the CIA is not alleviating internal anxieties but rather exacerbating conflicts within the faction.

This raises questions about the independence and fairness of the CIA's investigations, implying that the agency's future activities will not be smooth. The Democratic Party's internal opposition could become an obstacle to the CIA's effective role performance and is likely to remain a spark for political controversy.