Democratic Party Honam Rights-Holder Voting Begins; Kim Min-seok Given 99% Win Chance Amid Shincheonji Interference Allegations

One staffer left to run for office, but the other six resigning at once is being seen as unusual. Analysts say these internal staffing changes are affecting the office's overall mood and direction of activity.

The court reportedly made the decision because the second forensic appraisal requested from the National Forensic Service has not yet arrived. This means the key evidence needed to determine the truth has not yet been secured, signaling a prolonged trial. The allegations began with claims that President Yoon Suk Yeol and former Democratic Party emergency committee chair Han Dong-hoon attended the drinking party, and whether this is true remains contested.

In the competition between Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yon, Jung did not clearly back either candidate. However, critics argue that once Lee Jae-myung was confirmed as the final winner, Jung immediately switched to supporting him and began active campaigning. This abrupt change has raised questions about whether it was driven by political self-interest.

This sudden reversal could lead to questions about the reliability of Jung's political conduct. The large gap between his neutral stance during the primary and his active support after the victory has been criticized, raising questions about the consistency of his values and convictions as a politician. Some see such flexibility as a political survival strategy, but critics may interpret it as opportunism.

Jung's moves are seen as having strengthened his political standing under party leader Lee Jae-myung. Although he avoided taking clear positions during the primary to sidestep conflict, analysts say he quickly aligned himself with the winner once the outcome was decided, seeking to secure his place in the new power structure. This is a common phenomenon in politics, but it may appear to voters as something to be viewed critically.

Reportedly, Jung appeared on a TV program and expressed discomfort, saying he did not even want to mention Lee Jae-myung's name. Yet after Lee Nak-yon was eliminated in the 2021 presidential primary and Lee Jae-myung was confirmed as the final candidate, Jung immediately switched to supporting him, critics say.

This drastic change has amplified doubts about Jung's political consistency. Actively backing someone he once harshly criticized may confuse voters, analysts say. Such conduct could be interpreted as a strategic move to strengthen his political position or realign power relations, but given how it contrasts with his past remarks, it is unlikely to escape criticism.

Symbolic moves have also been spotted, such as supporters wearing yellow clothing since last week. However, the prevailing atmosphere within Jung's camp is to treat this claim as bluster.

According to internal camp analysis, support in the Honam region is expected to remain in the single digits or struggle to exceed 11–12%. Internally, the accurate assessment is that this is not enough to make a comeback, yet Jung himself keeps invoking the 'Nosamo miracle' in an attempt to rally his base. Whether this optimism will translate into actual votes remains uncertain.

This shift in forms of address has sparked controversy. Some pointed out that the 'mother' label resembles how followers refer to Han Hak-ja, head of the Unification Church, as 'True Mother,' prompting speculation that he was courting Unification Church votes.

After this criticism, Jung added the 'father' label, but that too drew comparisons to a particular religious leader (Lee Man-hee), further complicating matters. As a result, Jung's appeal for support has backfired unintentionally, leaving him looking tangled. Critics warn that a base-rallying strategy is creating unnecessary controversy and could hurt his support.

2 of the Lee Jae-myung government: enshrining the spirit of May 18 in the Constitution's preamble. A person who served as ruling party leader for a year and is seeking re-election to help the success of the Lee Jae-myung government not knowing a core national policy task has raised questions about his qualifications as party leader. Jung was reluctant to reveal this, suggesting that Kim Min-seok be asked the same question, and deflected by claiming he had well supported 800 bills.

In fact, critics point out that he supported only about 27% of those 800 bills. His tendency to make excuses rather than frankly acknowledging his ignorance seems to have fueled criticism further. Analysts say that not knowing core national tasks is a serious problem, raising fundamental doubts about his leadership and policy understanding as party leader. Negative perceptions of Jung are spreading among voters.

Previously, he showed outstanding performance as Justice Committee chair, and many analysts believed he had the potential to be nominated for future roles such as National Assembly Speaker or Seoul mayor. In fact, he had prospects of a next committee chair role or other major political opportunities.

However, critics argue that by immediately challenging for party leader, he exposed his own lack of capacity. The party leader role requires different qualities than the committee chair, and by failing to perform it properly, Jung has exposed his political limits. This has been likened to an investment using political leverage that backfired, costing him even the assets he had built. Disappointment in Jung, once highly regarded, is growing.

Despite this high probability, New Tamsa is urging voter participation until the end. Kim Min-seok himself said at a press conference that if voting proceeds normally, he could cautiously expect victory, stressing the importance of 'normal voting.'

This remark is interpreted as referring to the late-stage surge of votes toward Lee Nak-yon in 2021. At the time, media reported concerns about a similar late surge for Lee Nak-yon among party leaders including Song Young-gil. Kim's camp, hoping such abnormal vote flows do not repeat, repeatedly emphasizes 'normal voting' and signals a commitment to winning through a fair primary.

Signs are emerging that Shincheonji members may consolidate their votes behind Jung Chung-rae in the Democratic Party convention. Last Sunday, while New Tamsa reporters were covering the Shincheonji church in Gwangju, a middle-aged member was confirmed to have said directly, "I'm voting for Jung Chung-rae." Shincheonji members usually avoid political questions, citing "no interest in politics" or the principle of separation of religion and politics, but this time one unusually expressed anger and clearly stated support for a specific candidate.

This suggests that even without an organizational directive from the church, a spontaneous flow of support for Jung is forming among followers in the Honam region. Their anger is seen as stemming from a sense of crisis that Kim Min-seok's pledge to thoroughly investigate 'dual-party members, ghost members, and involuntary enrollees' could target Shincheonji. This reactive sentiment is considered a possible factor in consolidating votes for Jung.

Shincheonji is reportedly deliberating over whether to interfere in the Democratic Party leadership race. For Shincheonji, the main purpose of interfering would be to shake Lee Jae-myung, but doing so requires a clear judgment about who should become party leader. However, if Kim Min-seok wins, his pledge to thoroughly investigate 'dual-party members, ghost members, and involuntary enrollees' could target Shincheonji, creating a dilemma.

Shincheonji reportedly believes that if it does not interfere, Jung Chung-rae will win based on objective data. If it does interfere, it might have a chance, but if organized interference is exposed, it could cause a major backlash. Furthermore, even if Shincheonji interferes and Jung still loses, Kim Min-seok may carry out his pledge and launch intense investigations into Shincheonji, which could be the worst outcome.

Amid these complex interests, Shincheonji appears to be weighing carefully whether to interfere in the primary. Which path it chooses between its political goal of checking Lee Jae-myung and the organizational threat posed by Kim Min-seok's pledge is closely watched. The outcome is expected to affect not only the Democratic Party convention but also Korean politics going forward.

It expresses particular concern that if Shincheonji begins interfering in local Democratic Party elections, the current one-person-one-vote system could be distorted into a system serving Shincheonji.

This is because in small county-level primaries with populations of 30,000 to 50,000, several hundred Shincheonji votes could decide the outcome, a considerable influence. New Tamsa judges that such a situation could seriously undermine the fairness of Democratic Party primaries and threaten democratic values, so it plans to continue investigating and exposing the allegations. If organized Shincheonji interference is proven true, calls for a reexamination of the Democratic Party's primary system as a whole are expected to grow.

New Tamsa stressed that even if a separate analysis from pollster 'Yeoron Jorsa Kkot' emerges, its 99% prediction of a Kim Min-seok win will remain unchanged.

This shows that, combining objective data and expert analysis, the prevailing assessment is that Rep. Jung's chances of winning are very slim. New Tamsa had already predicted Kim Min-seok's overwhelming advantage through its own simulation, and reporter Park's analysis appears to support this. Such analysis adds weight to criticism that Jung's 'Nosamo miracle' claim is detached from reality.

In inquiries made yesterday with officials at the National Assembly, some mentioned the possibility that Kim may fail to win enough votes in the capital region. This analysis is also part of the reason Kim is campaigning directly in the metropolitan area.

Although Kim is expected to lead overall, the complex voter sentiment in the capital region is a variable that is hard to predict. Because the capital region has the largest concentration of voters nationwide, its results could be a decisive factor in the overall primary. Kim's camp is expected to focus even more on the metropolitan area to dispel these concerns.

Poll results released about a month before voting become an important factor in moving the votes of undecided voters. Once a bandwagon forms, it becomes very difficult to reverse that trend in subsequent polls.

People who are not highly interested in politics tend to want to vote for the frontrunner, since they do not want their vote to be wasted. Therefore, when early polls show a gap of around 20 to 30 percentage points, a bandwagon naturally forms regardless of whether the data reflects reality. This bandwagon hardens public opinion and can have a major effect on election outcomes.

Some suggested that it would be more advantageous for New Tamsa if Jung Chung-rae became party leader, but New Tamsa dismissed this, saying that would be bad news for the Democratic Party and would put it in a position of having to fight the party leader.

New Tamsa stressed that because so many 'corrupt officials' have been elected in the Honam region, it will focus on closely monitoring them and exposing their misconduct. This reflects its determination to continue its role of exposing and checking corruption in local society. How New Tamsa's investigative activities in the Honam region will ripple out after the convention is a matter of interest.

Whistleblowers are frustrated because they cannot learn the progress of police investigations, and they are expressing anger at news that those responsible for the misconduct are being promoted rather than punished.

This phenomenon demonstrates the reality that investigative and judicial bodies in the region, including police, prosecutors, and courts, are failing to fulfill their roles and are instead colluding with local power brokers to consolidate corruption cartels. As a result, corrupt local officials are not properly disciplined and continue to hold power, deepening citizens' distrust and frustration.

Although it may have been written half in jest, such a post suggests that expectations for Shincheonji votes are quietly at work. Analysts suggest that Jung's camp may be hoping for a miracle similar to the late-stage surge of votes toward Lee Nak-yon in 2021, even while knowing from polls and various data that the election is hard for Jung to win.

Jung has not clearly warned against the possibility of Shincheonji interfering in the primary; instead, he has argued that the allegations of interference themselves are mistaken. This stance can be read as reflecting an implicit expectation of Shincheonji votes. It further fuels controversy over the fairness of the Democratic Party primary, and attention is focused on what position Jung will take on the Shincheonji allegations.