Trump-Kim Jong Un Reunion Possibility Rises… Is South Korean Security at a 'Critical Turning Point'?

Former U.S. President Donald Trump appears to have sent a personal letter to North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un. Cho Han-bum, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, analyzed that Kim Jong Un's 'response' mentioned by Trump likely refers to the delivery of a personal letter, possibly through the New York channel. Kim is said to have received the letter but has not yet sent an official reply. Trump is reportedly awaiting Kim's official response.

An analysis suggests there is a 99% probability that if Trump returns to power, he will pursue a 'small deal' that would effectively tolerate North Korea's nuclear arsenal in exchange for securing the safety of the U.S. mainland. Cho Han-bum pointed out that denuclearization was not explicitly stated in the 2018 agreement and emphasized that North Korea has already codified its nuclear force, indicating no intention to abandon nuclear weapons. This suggests that an agreement could be reached where North Korea maintains its nuclear state status while addressing U.S. security concerns.

A warning has been issued that serious risks could arise if former President Trump attempts to convert the armistice agreement into a peace treaty. Cho Han-bum explained that if the armistice agreement is replaced by a peace treaty, it would be elevated to a state-to-state treaty, and North Korea would likely seek to redefine inter-Korean relations as 'state-to-state.' He pointed out that if North Korea claims the current Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) as its national border, it would directly conflict with South Korea's constitution, which states that 'the territory of the Republic of Korea consists of the Korean Peninsula and its adjacent islands,' posing a significant security threat.

An analysis has emerged regarding Kim Jong Un's preference for talks with former U.S. President Donald Trump. Cho Han-bum explained that while most world leaders, including current U.S. President Biden, do not treat Kim as a legitimate dialogue partner, Trump treated Kim 'like a person' and showed respect as a counterpart. Therefore, North Korea is likely to believe that negotiating during Trump's term in office offers a greater chance of achieving tangible benefits.

An analysis was conducted on North Korea's recent launch of 15 ballistic missiles around 5 PM on the 20th. Cho Han-bum stated that these missiles, with a range of 300km, appear to be a tactical show of force rather than a strategic provocation, likely identified as KN-25 super-large multiple rocket launchers. He added that such provocations could also be intended to enhance negotiating power in the process of seeking dialogue with former President Trump.

If the United States effectively recognizes North Korea's nuclear weapons, support for South Korea's own nuclear armament is expected to surge from the current 60-80% level. Cho Han-bum pointed out that this could lead to a decline in South Korean public trust in the Trump administration, and merely redeploying tactical nuclear weapons would not be enough to alleviate public anxiety. South Korea would face increased pressure to seek its own security solutions.

It has been argued that South Korea should demand three key rights from the United States to secure potential nuclear armament capabilities. Cho Han-bum identified the introduction of nuclear-powered submarines, and the rights to uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel reprocessing as critical tasks. He recalled that former President Trump had hinted at providing such rights in the past, emphasizing that South Korea must build infrastructure for peaceful nuclear use to possess the strategic capability to convert to nuclear armament in an emergency. This was proposed as a way to secure effective deterrence against North Korea's nuclear threat.

If a Trump-Kim Jong Un summit takes place, North Korea is expected to strongly oppose South Korea's potential nuclear armament strategy. Cho Han-bum noted that North Korea has expressed caution regarding South Korea's introduction of nuclear submarines and the possibility of nuclear armament through plenary meetings of the Workers' Party and Foreign Ministry statements. North Korea fears that South Korea's nuclear armament could destabilize the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula and is expected to lobby former President Trump strongly against allowing South Korea's potential nuclear armament.

It has been suggested that South Korea should fully utilize the U.S. need to counter China, view alliances as transactional, and pursue a confident 'national interest first' diplomacy. Cho Han-bum emphasized recognizing U.S. security needs, such as the stationing of U.S. forces in Korea, and leveraging South Korea's industrial influence in semiconductors, HBM, and defense to strengthen its diplomatic position. He asserted that South Korea should no longer adopt a submissive attitude, and instead conduct proactive diplomacy, clearly stating 'no' when appropriate, to prioritize the nation's interests above all else.