Ahead of Nvidia's Earnings and the Jackson Hole Meeting, What Strategy for the Market? Experts Weigh In on Bitcoin and Korean Stocks

Samsung Electronics' shareholder return scale and content failed to meet market expectations, causing disappointment. In particular, the prevailing view was that Samsung's shareholder return policy was less aggressive than SK Hynix's. In stock markets, when expectations are high, disappointment tends to push share prices lower, and this weighed on Samsung's stock as well.

Kim Yeol-mae said, "When we first looked at Samsung's scale, everyone was surprised, but when you look at the details one by one, there are evaluations that it's less aggressive than Hynix." She conveyed the market's reaction.

The law is tied to limits on financial affiliates' ownership stakes, and analysts argue that treasury share buybacks and retirements could affect the complex governance structure under Chairman Lee Jae-yong.

Lee Seon-yeop said, "Why didn't they buy back and retire treasury shares that much? The explanation that it's because of the Financial Industry Separation Act is somewhat persuasive," stressing the law's influence.

Market stamina has weakened, slowing upward momentum. The decline in investor deposits reflects this, as sentiment toward the Korean market has soured and investors increasingly avoid it. In this environment, a market led by a few individual stocks becomes a limit that drags down overall market vitality.

Lee Seon-yeop said, "Looking at the whole picture, participants have already hit bottom, so the broadest pattern is that they are looking for companies that could take off." He described investors searching for promising companies.

Bets against the dollar have begun, which is having a positive effect on the Bitcoin market. Alongside this, expectations for the Clarity Act's passage are growing, and stablecoin activity is expected to pick up. Stablecoin growth has the potential to supply new liquidity to the crypto market, and can also be seen as part of an asset allocation strategy for addressing US Treasury issues.

Recently, excessive US debt and a severe fiscal deficit have been cited as the main causes of rising rates. Big tech firms issuing long-term bonds in large volumes has also caused supply-demand imbalances in the Treasury market. Such bond issuance by big tech competes with Treasuries and adds to rate pressure.

The logic is that even if debt is large, its relative weight shrinks as the economy grows. The US is therefore expected to pursue a strategy of lowering the debt ratio by accelerating growth to expand the denominator.

One reason for recent rate increases is the market's lack of trust in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. As Warsh has scaled back information such as the dot plot and forward guidance without clear communication on price stability, investor anxiety has grown. This makes it hard for market participants to anticipate the Fed's policy direction, amplifying uncertainty in financial markets.

This is because the supply-demand environment has changed from the past, as US institutional investors have entered the market and listed companies have shifted their Bitcoin holding strategies. In particular, an unexpected surge within a year of the start of a downturn has made it hard to explain the current market with traditional cycle analysis alone.

Cho Dong-hyeon said, "Recently, this cycle has started to not match. Institutional investors have entered the market in the US, and with ETFs and other corporations adopting financial strategies that involve accumulating Bitcoin, supply and demand have changed compared with before, as many have observed."

Following the dollar-weakness narrative, many investors bet on a Bitcoin decline and built large short positions. However, about $2 billion of these shorts were forcibly liquidated in a single day, sending prices sharply higher. In other words, the key driver of the price rise was the liquidation of existing positions rather than new money coming in.

According to a BlackRock research report, about $60 billion flowed into the Bitcoin market from January 2024 through September 2025, while about $10 billion flowed into AI. However, as interest in AI has surged and the stock market has embraced AI-related stocks, the flow of funds has shifted. As investors began selling Bitcoin and buying AI-related ETFs and stocks, the supply-demand gap between the two assets reversed.

Cho Dong-hyeon stressed that only if these indicators rise rapidly could this rally be seen as a real upcycle beyond the four-year cycle.

Expectations for the Clarity Act's passage have been barely reflected in Bitcoin's price. The rise in Bitcoin's price is analyzed as stemming more from the macroeconomic story of dollar weakness than from any direct link to the Act's passage. The crypto industry is currently focused more on establishing clear alternative guidelines than on whether the bill passes.

When Strategy first sold Bitcoin, the overall market fell more than 11%. However, even after it sold more than ten times as much Bitcoin afterward, the Bitcoin price barely moved. This is a positive sign that the Bitcoin market has grown to the point where it is no longer significantly shaken by Strategy's large sell-offs. There is also a possibility that Strategy could resume buying Bitcoin once its preferred stock normalizes.

After a short-term sharp decline, a period of consolidation is needed rather than a rapid V-shaped rebound. The market appears to be going through a phase of building up energy, and in Korean stocks this is expected to show up as a range-bound trend.

Park Hyeon-sang said, "In my view, it's a range. First there will be a period of consolidation or a process of accumulating energy, and in Korean stocks that should be seen as a range."

Technical analysis shows that moving averages are now converging, suggesting market energy is building up. The direction after such convergence is expected to be upward. Experts expect the market's clear direction to be determined within two to three weeks.

Park Hyeon-sang said, "Technically, what happens to this energy next? We'll have to see then, but personally I think it's upward." He mentioned the possibility of an upside move.

Investing by reacting to supply-demand indicators is not suitable for individual investors. There is a gap between short-term supply-demand and long-term trends, and forcing market bad news to fit supply-demand explanations is risky. It should be recognized that foreign investor flows or the exchange rate alone cannot fully predict market moves.

Lee Seon-yeop said, "Investing while watching that is not suitable at all for individual investors, I would say." He warned against blindly following supply-demand data.

There is skepticism about the market's habit of retroactively fitting reasons such as specific news (for example, a failed merger) to explain semiconductor share price declines. There have also been ironic cases where preferred shares with higher dividend yields fell more than common shares when prices dropped. This shows the market can move in ways that aren't rational.

Park Hyeon-sang said, "Yesterday the US was bad, so semiconductors fell for that reason, but when you compare them, Samsung Electronics preferred shares are good. Good, yet they fell more. Yesterday the preferred shares fell more than Samsung Electronics common." He pointed out this contradiction.

Kim Min-su said the market is now finding a floor and trying to reach the upper part of its range, and that investors should watch how major events such as Nvidia's earnings and the Jackson Hole meeting affect the market. In a market without a gap in buying interest, a cautious approach from investors is needed.

The semiconductor substrate market was in oversupply through 2025 but has begun shifting to shortage, and it is now showing an 8% supply deficit. In line with this trend, companies such as Samsung Electro-Mechanics are accelerating facility investments. This suggests the growth and importance of the semiconductor substrate market will grow further.

In the current market, many investors know which stocks are good but agonize over when to buy. The most sensible principle in such moments is 'staged buying.' Buying in portions each time the price falls spreads risk, and concentrating on stocks likely to become market leaders is an effective strategy. Securing cash by rebalancing holdings is also emphasized as an important principle in a highly volatile market.