Cracks Emerge in Stable Investment Formulas

Portfolios focused on large technology stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, previously considered stable, recorded losses in 15 out of 16 trades. In contrast, stocks generally viewed as higher risk, such as AMD, Amazon, Netflix, and Tesla, delivered unexpected results by driving overall returns into positive territory despite lower win rates.

This phenomenon suggests that in investing, one large successful win is more critical in determining overall returns than frequently winning small. It illustrates that strategies solely pursuing stability may not guarantee expected returns, indicating the need for a new approach to portfolio construction.

Upward pressure on oil prices is intensifying due to supply-side constraints. Specifically, heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, reduced traffic through the Panama Canal, and OPEC+'s decision to maintain quotas are converging to push oil prices higher.

In this situation, it is more important to closely monitor the movements of US diesel retail prices and refinery margins than the volatility of crude oil prices themselves. If signs of falling refinery margins are observed, the current assessment of rising oil prices may need to be withdrawn.

As long as supply instability persists, oil prices are expected to continue to significantly impact the market.

An analysis suggests that the growth trajectory of the obesity treatment market may be smaller than previously expected. This is due to the discontinuation of heart medication trials and pediatric trial results that fell short of expectations, which could impact the stock prices of related companies. Particularly, if drug price competition intensifies, companies without other growth drivers could face significant setbacks.

Currently, if the actual sales contribution from pediatric approval is low, or if the emergence of new candidate substances is delayed, a downward adjustment of market expectations seems inevitable. Investors should closely monitor the clinical trial results and new drug development trends of these companies.

However, if pediatric approval translates into actual sales or new candidate substances successfully enter the market, the current negative assessment could change.

Japan recently intervened in the currency market on a record scale, and it is suggested that a significant portion of its overseas securities holdings may have been sold to fund this. A Bloomberg reporter indicated that US Treasury bonds were most likely among the securities sold.

If Japan primarily sold short-term US Treasury bonds, the direct impact on long-term interest rates might be limited. However, the movement of a major asset-holding nation selling government bonds could create psychological pressure on the overall bond market, requiring caution.

Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PER) is a crucial metric for valuing a company, calculated by dividing its stock price by its earnings per share. However, judging a stock solely by PER can be risky. A high PER may reflect high market expectations for a company's future growth, but it carries the risk of a sharp stock price decline if these expectations are not met.

Conversely, companies with a low PER often find the market doubting the sustainability of their earnings. This can be interpreted as a sign of fundamental issues within the company or a weakening of its growth drivers.

Therefore, PER should be considered comprehensively along with other financial indicators and industry analysis; making investment decisions based solely on numerical comparisons is difficult.

Micron is expanding large-scale long-term contracts with key clients like SanDisk. These contracts include volume obligations and price floors and ceilings, ensuring that the company's profits will not collapse even if semiconductor market conditions deteriorate. Micron is expected to protect over half of its revenue with this stable structure through these contract expansions.

Such long-term contracts can significantly reduce Micron's earnings volatility, thereby enhancing its financial stability. This, in turn, could act as a positive factor for reevaluating the company's valuation in the market. Investors should closely monitor the long-term impact of this contract structure on Micron's performance.

Rising interest rates affect the stock market through two primary channels. First, the 'wind of comparison': increased interest rates on deposits and government bonds reduce their relative attractiveness compared to stock investments, leading to a decrease in investor risk appetite. This can prompt capital outflow from the stock market.

Second, the 'wind of calculation': when interest rates rise, the discount rate used to convert a company's future cash flows into present value increases. This results in a lower present valuation of a company's future worth. Growth stocks, in particular, which rely on future growth potential, can be more sensitive to interest rate changes.

Understanding this correlation between interest rates and stock prices is crucial for interpreting various market news stories as a cohesive narrative.

Nvidia is actively expanding its ecosystem, such as securing a software distribution network through its acquisition of Hugging Face. However, its method of providing financial support to clients is raising market caution. A cyclical structure where Nvidia lends money to clients, who then use that money to buy Nvidia chips, raises questions about the sustainability of its revenue.

Indeed, the lengthening of Nvidia's accounts receivable collection period from 45 to 60 days also supports these concerns. The market is closely monitoring whether this revenue expansion through financial support is sustainable in the long term.

Nvidia's supply production capacity contracts have surged from $119 billion to $279 billion, with total future contract value reaching $366 billion. This commitment to pre-securing components and production lines can be a powerful weapon for securing volume if demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips continues to be strong.

However, if demand falters, these large-scale contracts could turn into inventory and loss burdens. Therefore, it is crucial for Nvidia to maintain continuous AI chip demand, and the market is monitoring the impact of these contract size changes on future performance.

These large-scale contracts demonstrate Nvidia's aggressive market preemption strategy while also carrying potential risks associated with market volatility.

The Nikkei index in Japan fell by 0.6%. This is analyzed as the Tokyo market reflecting the accumulated oil and interest rate burdens over the holiday period, following the US Labor Day closure. In particular, the electronics and machinery sectors, being closely linked to exports and AI equipment investment, saw declines that suggest US semiconductor equipment stocks may move in the same direction when trading resumes.

However, if the Nikkei's drop stops within 0.6% and rebounds during the day, it could be interpreted as mere profit-taking in semiconductors due to recent memory chip strength. Therefore, the movement of the Japanese stock market will be an important indicator for predicting the short-term trend of the US semiconductor market.

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged by 18.37% in just one month. This sharp increase is analyzed as a 'risk premium' reflecting potential future supply disruptions, rather than an actual halt in supply.

News of refinery restarts or the normalization of passage through the Strait of Hormuz could cause this risk premium to recede, potentially reversing oil prices. Conversely, if actual supply disruptions are confirmed, both oil prices and interest rates could rise, placing significant pressure on growth stocks.

Therefore, the current rise in oil prices is interpreted as a result of a combination of short-term market sentiment and geopolitical uncertainty. Investors should carefully analyze oil-related news and monitor information regarding actual supply chain changes.

Foreign investors net bought 2.586 trillion KRW and institutional investors net bought 2.065 trillion KRW in the KOSPI market, shifting from selling in August to buying. This is a clear change compared to the 10.176 trillion KRW sold by foreigners in August. The main reason for this shift is attributed to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 3.38% on September 4th, a trend that extended to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

However, the sustainability of this upward trend depends on the probability of US interest rate hikes. If the likelihood of US interest rate hikes increases, the risk of foreign capital outflow could grow again, making it crucial to see if foreign buying continues even during market corrections.

In investing, loss management is crucial, relying not on emotion or willpower but on establishing and following clear 'rules'. It's necessary to pre-define conditions for unexpected situations when making investment decisions. This helps reduce mistakes from emotional judgments and maintain a consistent strategy.

The biggest difference between professional and amateur investors is not the accuracy of their predictions, but how quickly they execute stop-loss orders when they make a wrong judgment. In other words, the ability to minimize losses and quickly exit the market when wrong is important.

Adobe's stock price declined due to signals of a business shift following the appointment of a new CEO. Investor sentiment was particularly dampened by concerns that the advancement of generative AI technology could weaken Adobe's existing pricing power.

Securities firms have issued mixed evaluations of Adobe. Claes and RBC raised their price targets to $295 from $250 and $315 from $285, respectively, offering positive outlooks. Conversely, BFA maintained an 'underperform' rating, citing that AI-related revenue accounts for less than 2% of total recurring revenue, taking a cautious stance.

These conflicting evaluations reflect market uncertainty regarding how Adobe will respond to the era of generative AI and secure new growth drivers.

The way market indices are calculated necessitates different approaches to reading the market. Major index calculation methods include simply summing stock prices and weighting them by market capitalization. These two methods can yield entirely different numbers even when using the same market data.

When expensive companies drive the market versus when large-cap companies dominate, the movement of the index appears different. Therefore, investors should not simply look at a single index number but must ascertain which 'scale' was used to calculate that index.

This understanding is essential for accurately grasping real market trends and formulating investment strategies.

This implies a change in the market trend that had continued without much volatility throughout the summer. The possibility of mechanical selling by Volatility Targeting Funds was also mentioned, heightening concerns about increased market volatility.

However, rather than simply taking this warning as a 'signal to sell,' it should be seen as an opportunity to review the size of current asset holdings and any concentration in specific assets. This can be a crucial time to prepare for potential risks and balance portfolios.

Tesla's stock price saw a correction immediately after the Cybercab event. This is analyzed as a pullback driven by the dissipation of event-driven expectations. Furthermore, news that the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) initiated an audit of Tesla's safety certification fueled concerns about regulatory risks.

Additionally, the significant gap in the number of registered self-driving vehicles between Tesla and Waymo continued to raise questions about Tesla's autonomous driving technology competitiveness, negatively impacting the stock price. However, some views suggest the current decline is due to the fading of event expectations rather than a fundamental business impairment. Nevertheless, 2026 earnings estimates show 3 downgrades and 4 upgrades, indicating ongoing uncertainty in earnings forecasts.

Bank of America is scheduled to prepay 1.425 billion Canadian dollars on September 15th. However, this early repayment news is unlikely to be a market-friendly event that would trigger a reevaluation of bank stock prices, according to analysis.

This is because the early repayment announcement does not include key financial information such as net interest income, loan loss provisions, or share repurchase outlook. Investors are expected to focus more on the banks' fundamental profitability and financial soundness rather than short-term sentiment changes.

This led to a third-quarter revenue guidance that fell below market expectations, lowering short-term projections.

This decline can be interpreted as a short-term phenomenon resulting from the delayed market reflection of the price increase effect, rather than a fundamental impairment of the business.

Investors should focus more on Netflix's long-term growth drivers and content strategy, and await the point when the price increase effects are fully reflected.

This change implies that the market's evaluation criteria will move from simply 'how much was invested' to 'does cloud revenue follow the investment'.

Now, Microsoft faces the challenge of demonstrating how its massive AI and cloud expenditures translate into actual revenue growth. Whether cloud revenue growth rates outpace spending will significantly influence future stock prices and company valuation.

Therefore, market attention on Microsoft's investment efficiency and performance indicators is expected to increase.

The market is currently expected to show differentiated trends by sector rather than a movement of the overall index. Sectors benefiting from supply constraints, such as energy, defense, utilities, and materials, could show strength.

Conversely, sectors directly exposed to rising import costs and weakening consumption are expected to show relative vulnerability. This gap could widen further for some time.

However, if positive factors like progress in tariff negotiations or easing tensions in the Middle East emerge, the risk premium currently reflected in the market could revert, potentially narrowing this gap.

Nvidia investor Formosa's data center supply contract with OpenAI in Malaysia is a prime example.

This means that strategic site acquisition, considering power supply stability, cooling cost efficiency, and construction speed, has become crucial for AI infrastructure development. While OpenAI could build its own data centers, it also faces the risk of weakened negotiation power with external operators if power or data regulations tighten.

Therefore, the future of the AI industry depends not only on high-performance chips but also on the ability to build stable and efficient infrastructure, which could create new investment opportunities and risks across related industries.

Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy executed by clearly setting purchase benchmarks and loss margin lines in advance, as part of a pre-determined plan before starting an investment. This serves as a countermeasure against market volatility and a form of risk management.

Conversely, averaging down is an impromptu act of buying more to avoid losses after a stock price has fallen. This is often driven by psychological illusion rather than mathematical judgment, and 'dollar-cost averaging without lines' can ultimately lead to dangerous results similar to averaging down.

When making investment decisions, asking oneself whether to buy this stock at the current price from the start is an important criterion for distinguishing between dollar-cost averaging and averaging down. Additional purchases made without a clear plan mostly constitute averaging down and can lead to greater losses due to psychological pressure.