Lee Jae-myung's 30% Approval Rating in Peril, 40s and 50s Also Leaving

This figure represents a sharp drop of 6.8%p in just one week, with the proportion of respondents who answered 'very poor' reaching 47.7%, close to a majority.

On broadcast, Seonwoo Yoon-ho emphasized this figure, stating, "Positive evaluations of Lee Jae-myung's performance in state affairs are 36.5%, and negative evaluations are 62.0%." This suggests that the likelihood of Lee Jae-myung's approval rating falling below 30% has increased.

This rapid decline indicates a deepening distrust among the public regarding the administration of state affairs.

Analysis suggests that this controversy is acting as a factor further accelerating the decline in Lee Jae-myung's approval rating after the 'convention effect' has dissipated.

Lee Jae-neung stated, "21.9% say 'very well,' but I think it could drop even further. It's not just a matter of stopping support, withdrawing it, or taking a wait-and-see approach; it's a complete distrust of the Lee Jae-myung administration that is emerging right now." He analyzed that the current 'very well' response of 21.9% is essentially the last line of defense for the approval rating. This suggests that falling into the 20% approval rating range may only be a matter of time.

In particular, signs of collapse are appearing even among those in their 40s and 50s, previously known as the 'concrete support base.' The increase in negative evaluations is greater than the decrease in approval ratings, indicating that distrust is deepening beyond mere withdrawal of support.

Currently, Lee Jae-myung's side tends to focus only on internal power struggles within the party, lacking any momentum or mechanisms to rebound his approval rating.

Lee Jae-neung stated, "Despite such investments, regional public opinion polls in Honam show a decrease of as much as 16%, and at least 8%. It is no longer a time when the Lee Jae-myung administration's policy messages can be trusted by either supporters, waverers, or undecideds." This highlights a clear decline in approval ratings in the Honam region. Despite a promise to invest in three mega-projects totaling 800 trillion won, public opinion polls in the region showed an 8% to 16%p decrease in approval.

This proves that all segments—supporters, waverers, and undecideds—are losing trust in the policy messages put forth by Lee Jae-myung's side, showing the limitation that large-scale investment promises for specific regions alone cannot win back public sentiment.

Notably, negative evaluations among those in their 40s and 50s, known as candidate Lee Jae-myung's core support base, also recorded over 60%, indicating that more than 6 out of 10 people negatively assess his performance in state affairs.

In particular, criticism is being raised about the absence of a public discourse process in the hurried handling of critical matters such as the proposed abolition of the Korea Communications Commission or attempts to abolish the Public Prosecutors' Office.

Analysis suggests that as housing prices under candidate Lee Jae-myung have risen even more sharply than under the Moon Jae-in administration, public sentiment among the 40s and 50s, who see their homes not merely as investments but as lifelong savings and assets directly tied to their lives, has worsened.

The perception that government policy directly threatens personal assets is acting as a decisive factor in these generations withdrawing their support.

Kim Jun-su remarked, "But after promising to raise it, the economy, to be honest, and forgive the expression, is a mess, so perhaps the 40s and 50s have taken off their rose-tinted glasses?" He expressed dissatisfaction with the government's stock market policies and economic management. This indicates that as the government encouraged stock investment but investors suffered losses due to market deterioration, including the KOSPI crash, disappointment among those in their 40s and 50s grew.

Furthermore, the sense of regret and responsibility among those in their 40s and 50s regarding the national debt problem that will be passed on to the younger generation is also cited as a reason for withdrawing support. Analysis suggests that these complex factors caused a 'mental breakdown' among the 40s and 50s, leading them to withdraw their support for candidate Lee Jae-myung.

Lee Jae-neung mentioned, "There was the ETF issue on the KOSPI. As far as I know, 330,000 ETF accounts were liquidated." He pointed out that the large-scale incident, where an estimated 330,000 ETF accounts were liquidated, is one of the important reasons for the decline in approval ratings. This is interpreted as a clear example of stock market instability and the failure of government economic policy.

Furthermore, comparing housing price increases across past administrations, it was noted that just as the Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in administrations saw high increases, candidate Lee Jae-myung's across-the-board policy failures, including real estate issues, are a key reason for the approval rating falling below 40%.

First, the real estate problem must be solved comprehensively. Second, the judicial system must be normalized, and demands for a special prosecutor must be abandoned.

Third, hardliners within the party must be managed. Fourth, efforts should be made to position himself as a coordinator for North Korea relations with Trump, and finally, tangible results must be shown in securing funds for US-Korea trade negotiations and addressing national debt.

This seems to reflect international concerns about a departure from the liberal democratic line and caution regarding the suspected influx of socialist elements.

In particular, actions such as expressing opposition to UN sanctions resolutions are being criticized for further weakening international trust.

Kim Jun-su explained, "The whole world had defined South Korea as a free democratic country. But even before the Lee Jae-myung administration was born, there were certainly many concerns about whether a left-wing government would emerge, or whether socialist elements would be added." He noted that there were international concerns about the weakening of South Korea's free democratic identity even before candidate Lee Jae-myung took office. Analysis suggests that the anti-democratic nature of his cabinet appointments and policies, along with diplomatic friction such as anti-Trump protests, exacerbated these concerns.

This is pointed out as a primary reason for South Korea being marginalized and diplomatically isolated in the international community.

This goes beyond a simple refusal and could be perceived as diplomatic rudeness, leading to criticism of his qualifications as a presidential candidate and his communication style.

Concerns about his diplomatic capabilities are being raised, as critics suggest a lack of respectful language and persuasive effort.

This reflects the US's strategic intention to prioritize US-North Korea relations, and concerns are growing about South Korea being excluded from US policy towards North Korea.