China's 'Gray Zone' Tactics Intensify South China Sea Disputes, But '198 Vessels' Claim is Misleading

This strategy, often termed 'gray zone activity' by security analysts, allows China to gradually advance its territorial ambitions without triggering direct armed conflict.

Pag-asa Island, also known as Thitu Island, continues to be a focal point of these tensions, with both Philippine civilian and military personnel maintaining a presence there, underscoring the ongoing dispute over sovereignty.

Filipino personnel are stationed aboard, making the ship a physical representation of the Philippines' commitment to maintaining its presence in the disputed area.

Despite the high tensions surrounding the shoal, a provisional understanding reached in 2024 has allowed for 15 incident-free resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre, demonstrating a fragile but crucial mechanism for de-escalation amidst ongoing disputes.

From July 21st to 25th, 2026, forces from the Philippines, Japan, and the United States conducted a multilateral maritime cooperative activity within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. These joint exercises signify a growing international effort to bolster regional security and uphold maritime laws.

The drills included critical operations such as anti-submarine warfare and enhanced maritime domain awareness, aiming to improve interoperability and collective response capabilities. The USS George Washington carrier strike group also participated, highlighting the significant commitment of US naval power to the region.

These exercises demonstrate China's readiness to project military power in disputed waters and underscore the escalating nature of the territorial claims.

Philippine monitoring identified the presence of various Chinese military assets, including warships, hovercraft, and aircraft, operating in close proximity to the shoal. The convergence of multiple military forces in a contested area significantly increases the risk of accidental confrontations or miscalculations, potentially leading to broader escalation.

This figure actually referred to commercial vessels that were inspected or contacted during a Chinese maritime enforcement and survey operation conducted east of Taiwan.

The situation in the South China Sea is characterized by a structured and persistent maritime presence by various Chinese vessels, including coast guard and research ships, rather than a single, massive blockade as implied by the '198 vessels' claim. Understanding this distinction is crucial for accurately assessing the geopolitical dynamics.

For now, the contest in the South China Sea largely remains below the threshold of direct armed conflict. Instead, it is being fought through a multifaceted approach involving persistent presence, surveillance activities, assertions of law enforcement, legal arguments, diplomatic protests, and military signaling.

The real challenge lies in effectively managing the significant gap between the conflicting territorial claims of various nations rather than focusing on sensationalized media figures. The ongoing struggle requires sustained diplomatic efforts and adherence to international law to prevent further escalation.