Wall Street Rumors of Imminent Clarity Act Passage: What's Next for Bitcoin?

They want to establish an institutional foundation for the virtual asset market by passing crypto legislation.

Large asset managers, leveraging their immense capital, are exerting pressure that the Democratic Party cannot easily ignore. This serves as a major factor in raising expectations for the bill's passage.

It is known that he excluded clauses related to his children but made significant concessions, such as accepting a blind trust for himself.

Former President Trump's concessions largely address the ethical issues that the opposition used as grounds to oppose the bill, further pressing for its passage. This is one of the key factors increasing the likelihood of the bill's passage.

Currently, the financial sector is divided into opposing forces centered on commercial banks and proponents centered on asset managers and investment banks. Amidst this, the Democratic Party is weighing the voices of both camps and calculating political gains and losses.

The strong demands from the virtual asset sector and asset managers are difficult for the Democratic Party to easily ignore. With the possibility of more than 7 defections in both the House and Senate, the Democratic Party's choice is expected to critically influence the bill's passage.

The Trump camp emphasizes that if the Clarity Act fails to pass, there is a risk that virtual asset hegemony will shift to hostile nations like China and Russia. If the Democratic Party opposes it despite former President Trump's concessions, they plan to actively use a framework that shifts responsibility to the Democratic Party.

This could lead to a large-scale offensive linking national security hegemony issues, placing a political burden on the Democratic Party if the bill fails. This framework will be used as a powerful means to pressure for the bill's passage.

U.S. political circles are resurrecting the 'Red Complex' after 70 years, setting up a formidable enemy. They are launching a political ideological offensive by defining China as an external enemy and radical leftists within the Democratic Party as internal enemies.

This is a communist framework intended to obstruct the MAGA project, a strategy that strengthens the framework by linking economic and security issues. Such antagonistic settings are used to bolster the logic for the bill's passage.

This is known to be a highly accurate indicator due to the nature of betting markets.

It's also possible that recent positive changes, such as President Trump's acceptance of ethical clauses, have not yet been fully reflected in the betting market. While objective indicators suggest immediate passage is difficult, expectations for the bill's passage remain.

If the Democratic Party fails to provide rational arguments against the Clarity Act, it will give voters a reason to attack. This would create a significant political burden for the Democratic Party.

The strong will of the Republican Party and former President Trump to pass the bill suggests that its passage is only a matter of time. Against this backdrop, there are positive forecasts for the bill's passage within this year.

Among them, asset managers, led by BlackRock, strongly advocate for the bill's passage, leveraging their immense capital.

The total capital of major global asset managers, including BlackRock ($14 trillion), amounts to $30 trillion. Notably, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink's determination to pass the bill acts as the core trigger for this entire situation.

Specifically, discussions on the Bitcoin Reserve Modernization Act have already begun in the House. If the Clarity Act passes, the likelihood of these related bills also passing is expected to increase significantly.

The first is to prioritize the standalone passage of the bill, and the second is to insert it as an amendment to a major essential bill if standalone passage is difficult. The plan is to include an amendment related to national security in essential bills related to budget and defense, such as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

It is known that a slot for a Clarity Act-related item was indeed made available in the NDAA amendment on March 11. The key issue now remains whether the actual item will be included in this slot.

This strategy demonstrates a strong will for the bill's passage, and when linked to national security, it becomes even harder to oppose.

The U.S. Congress is bicameral, and House district representatives tend to have their own specialties, avoiding encroachment on each other's areas.

Therefore, for the final enforcement of the Clarity Act's provisions, a cooperative process through a joint House-Senate committee is essential. The limited discussions in the House make it difficult to cover the entire scope of the bill.

One of the key provisions of the GENIUS Act relates to stablecoin compensation issues.

Currently, the banking sector is strongly opposing stablecoin interest and compensation payments. Therefore, it is important to meticulously analyze the priorities and sensitivities of related bills.