US-Canada Tariff Conflict Escalates, Global Economic Instability Rises with Iranian Tanker Movements

Concerns are growing that the North American Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) system could collapse after the United States decided to impose a 50% tariff on Canada. This measure intensifies trade friction between the two countries and suggests the possibility of a long-term trade war. The decision to impose tariffs has made the future of the USMCA agreement even more uncertain.

Professor Ban stated, "The U.S. has decided to impose a 50% tariff on Canada. The USMCA is now collapsing."

The U.S. Treasury has indicated it may expand its long-term Treasury bond purchases from the current $4 billion to up to $1 trillion. This is interpreted as a strategy to control interest rates, aiming to stabilize the bond market by combining it with short-term issuances. Such large-scale purchases are noteworthy as they could lead to significant fluctuations in the bond market and the value of the dollar.

Professor Ban explained, "They initially said they would buy about $4 billion, but now they're saying they might buy up to $1 trillion."

It has been reported that 45 Iranian oil tankers moved despite being fined. This can be interpreted as resistance to U.S. sanctions against Iran. The U.S. appears to be focusing on economic blockade rather than military action in its Iran policy, and attention is focused on whether this strategy can limit oil price increases and alleviate geopolitical risks.

Professor Ban reported, "45 Iranian oil tankers reportedly fled past the 50,000-unit mark even after Iran fined them."

Controversy has arisen after it was revealed that former President Trump's asset management account conducted over 1,000 stock trades in June alone. Major stocks purchased reportedly include Berkshire Hathaway, Visa, and Mastercard. With his assets said to have grown by over 50% compared to when he took office, questions are being raised about the independence and transparency of his asset management.

Professor Ban said, "What Trump traded in June was revealed, and he reportedly traded over 1,000 times already."

The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds is relatively rising, which is related to the narrowing of the Treasury yield spread due to long-term purchases and short-term issuances. Some point out that this situation could be a destabilizing factor. Furthermore, concerns are being raised that the U.S. national debt could surpass $40 trillion, increasing attention to the nation's fiscal burden.

The correlation between demand in the current EV market and high oil prices is also complex, adding to market uncertainty. Professor Ban diagnosed the current situation, saying, "The 2-year bond yield is relatively rising. It's rising relatively. This is a bit of an unstable factor, but they're buying long-term bonds and selling short-term ones."

These complex macroeconomic indicators demand a cautious approach from investors. In particular, high oil prices increase inflationary pressure, which could affect the Fed's interest rate policy. Simultaneously, the government's large fiscal deficit raises questions about long-term economic stability.

With these factors interacting in a complex way, the market is in a situation where it is difficult to predict movement in a specific direction. Investor confusion is increasing amidst expectations of the end of the interest rate hike cycle and the possibility of renewed inflation.

Currently, the stock market is not exhibiting a 'Fear of Missing Out' (FOMO) phenomenon. While FOMO typically plays a strong role in pushing the market higher, such an atmosphere is not currently detected. Suspicion and fear of a 'crack' in the market are spreading, serving as a factor that keeps investors in a neutral wait-and-see stance.

Professor Ban conveyed the market sentiment, saying, "FOMO isn't coming right now. Yes. FOMO should come and push it up to 80, but it's not that kind of atmosphere. Yes. It's almost like a crack in the stock market. Right?"

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index is currently stagnant, and the volatility index (VIX) is also in an ambiguous position, making it difficult to predict the market's direction. The market is currently unable to move strongly in any specific direction, and the possibility of an upward reversal remains uncertain.

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index is currently hovering around unchanged, and the Volatility Index (VIX) is also in an ambiguous position, making it difficult to predict the market's direction. The market is currently unable to move strongly in any particular direction, and the possibility of an upward reversal is unclear.

Professor Ban emphasized the importance of diversified investment, stating, "Even at 9,000, it's just going up and down. So, diversified investment is important. Still, it has risen a lot this year, over 10%."

The valuation of stocks is currently considered very fair and positive. Unlike past controversies over overvaluation, many stocks are analyzed as maintaining fair value. However, investors are deeply 고민 over whether to buy in an additional discount range, which might occur despite current good prices, or to enter the market now.

Professor Ban explained the investor's dilemma, saying, "Valuations are good. Yes. The fair value of stocks is very appropriate and very good. There are many that are well-matched. The valuation is just right at 19.99, which is the 5-year average. So, will you buy when there's a bigger discount, or will you just buy now because the price is good?"

This situation shows that while the market is fundamentally sound, uncertainty persists in terms of investor sentiment. Investors are trying to make cautious decisions by considering both opportunity cost and risk.

According to an announcement last week, 'Situation Awareness,' a hedge fund that had invested in semiconductor and AI-related stocks, sold over 80% of its holdings. As this fund was one of the key drivers of the recent surge in semiconductor and AI-related stocks, this selling movement is expected to significantly impact the market.

Professor Ban explained, "It was announced last week that Situation Awareness sold everything they bought. They sold over 80%. The recent rise in semiconductor and AI stocks was due to the Situation Awareness fund," suggesting that the current market has entered a swing phase dominated by short-term trading.

This situation has increased the likelihood of expanded volatility for related stocks such as Micron Technology and SanDisk. Large-scale selling by hedge funds reflects a change in investment sentiment toward a specific sector and could lead to short-term price adjustments.

Analysis suggests that NVIDIA is evolving from a simple semiconductor company into an investment firm. NVIDIA is expanding its octopus-like investments into various fields, focusing particularly on CUDA software and AI model development. This shift is interpreted as a strategy to expand NVIDIA's business portfolio and secure future growth engines.

Professor Ban emphasized the change in NVIDIA's identity, stating, "NVIDIA is making many octopus-like investments in various places. It's not just a semiconductor company anymore. NVIDIA can now be seen as an investment company."

NVIDIA is expected to continue its strong growth, forecasting quarterly revenue of $92.1 billion, with GPU price increases also contributing to this growth. This demonstrates NVIDIA's long-term vision to diversify its revenue model by building a software ecosystem and providing AI solutions, beyond just hardware sales.

These changes are expected to differentiate NVIDIA from existing semiconductor competitors and further solidify its position as a key infrastructure provider in the AI era. Investors need to pay attention to these changes at NVIDIA and approach it from a long-term perspective.

In the current market, big tech companies like Amazon, Costco, Google, and Apple are showing strong upward momentum. In contrast, semiconductor and small-cap stocks such as Tesla, SanDisk, and Micron are struggling. Tesla, in particular, is experiencing a decline due to tariff impacts, adding to market concerns.

Professor Ban pointed out the market's polarization, stating, "Today, Amazon, Costco, Google, Apple, and others are doing well. The rest are weak. Yes, Tesla is down a bit. Yes, Tesla is also down a bit, yes, due to tariff effects."

The recently released Chicago activity index turning negative suggests a poor market sentiment. This can be interpreted as an indicator of slowing economic activity. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 4.6%, the dollar remained stable, and oil prices stayed around $91.

Professor Ban analyzed the current macroeconomic indicators, stating, "Today, an indicator came out, the Chicago activity index, and it turned negative. The mood isn't very good."

In response to a question about NVIDIA's fair stock price range, Professor Ban stated that it is advisable to purchase when it reaches a fair price.

Those who won the last offline meeting but indicated they could not attend will be removed from the list, and those who do not reply to emails may also be excluded. This book reviewer group will select a small, elite group of 26 members, and additional acceptances will need to wait.

Professor Ban announced, "For those who won the Ppuhaeng event last time but can't make it, if you don't reply to the email, we will exclude you for now."

With the start of the fall semester, Monday live broadcasts will now end earlier. Professor Ban stated that he has to finish the broadcast early due to his class schedule.

Professor Ban informed viewers of the change, saying, "My fall semester starts today, so I have classes, and I'm leaving early today. So, it seems Mondays will be earlier from now on."