Ukraine Frontline Transitioning to Robot Warfare

Initially, it was a semi-autonomous phase involving human control, but it has now evolved into a combination of low-tech drones using wired cables and high-tech drones equipped with AI chips. In particular, Ukraine is using drones with built-in AI chips to precisely target Russian logistics and critical infrastructure.

The war is entering a swarm operation phase where hundreds or thousands of drones are operated simultaneously. This drone operation is evolving into an autonomous weapons stage where human intervention is completely excluded. Experts predict that we are likely to witness this form of 'first robot war' by the end of this year or early next year. Professor Kim Jong-dae commented, "They fly in units of hundreds and thousands. Then everything is controlled."

Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the complete occupation of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine by the end of this year. Professor Kim Jong-dae stated, "The order Putin gave a few days ago was to completely occupy Donetsk in eastern Ukraine by the end of this year." Due to such reckless and unrealistic orders, the Russian forces are being forced into a war of attrition, enduring massive troop sacrifices.

Since February of this year, total Russian casualties have reached 260,000, with 160,000 deaths, significantly outnumbering the injured. Professor Kim Jong-dae explained, "Since February of this year, 260,000 Russian soldiers have been casualties in ground combat in this manner, and 160,000 of them are fatalities." This is a historically unusual phenomenon, demonstrating that survival is extremely rare within drone kill zones.

First-person view (FPV) drones used by Ukraine are primarily employed for precision targeting. Professor Kim Jong-dae said, "They are mainly killed by Ukraine's FPV drones, and for a few seconds before dying, they make eye contact with the drone." It takes only 3 seconds from detection to killing, and with the deployment of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), areas where survival is impossible are increasingly expanding on the battlefield.

Professor Kim Jong-dae noted, "Recently, North Korean troops dispatched to Russia have split their forces into units of four. One of the four is a decoy." They are using decoy tactics to lure drones and ensure survival.

Professor Kim Jong-dae pointed out, "It's not a ceasefire, not an end to the war, but a situation where the madness of war collides even more intensely, and the casualty rate continues to increase." As the war involvement of both leaders, President Zelenskyy and President Putin, deepens, the casualty rate is continuously rising.

The core of modern warfare is shifting from hardware to software. The stage where AI algorithm weapons are integrated with the new trend of drones is becoming a stepping stone towards fully autonomous warfare, or robot warfare. Professor Kim Jong-dae explained, "Now, the stage where AI algorithm weapons are integrated with the new trend of drones is a stepping stone towards fully autonomous warfare, robot warfare." With the increasing importance of software like Palantir Systems, core deterrence is also changing.

The speed of the kill chain decision-making loop has accelerated so dramatically that humans simply cannot keep up. The decision-making speed, which was previously in 25-minute increments, has now been shortened to 1-2 minute increments, entering a phase where human judgment is subservient to machine judgment. Professor Kim Jong-dae emphasized, "The cycle speed of this kill chain decision-making loop has accelerated to an astonishing degree, so humans simply cannot keep up. What happens is that human judgment capabilities become subordinate to machine judgment."

As drone prices continue to fall to $5,000-$10,000, the weapons to intercept them are becoming increasingly expensive, leading to a cost-effectiveness war. Professor Kim Jong-dae explained, "Drone prices are getting cheaper, while interceptor weapons are getting more expensive. This cost-effectiveness war has broken the system. Defensive assets are no longer effective." Drones integrating reconnaissance and kamikaze functions can strike critical facilities cheaply, effectively rendering existing high-cost defensive assets useless.

US stockpiles of key missiles, including THAAD, Patriot, and Standard Missiles (SM3, SM6), have fallen below 50%. Professor Kim Jong-dae stated, "The THAAD, Patriot, and Standard Missiles SM3 and SM6 that the US possesses have now fallen to below 50% of their stock, so the general assessment is that another war will be almost impossible in the future." This is a serious warning about the sustainability of US defensive assets and could limit future warfighting capabilities.

When tanks or armored vehicles are deployed to the battlefield, they are immediately exposed to drone attacks and annihilated repeatedly. Professor Kim Jong-dae pointed out, "The Ukraine war is about the paralysis of mobility. This is the fundamental problem of the Russian army. Deploying tanks and armored vehicles to war leads to annihilation. They are immediately seen by drone attacks." Currently, the Russian army is in a war of attrition, advancing only 0.3 km per day.

Professor Kim Jong-dae explained, "Russia is going to transition to a wartime mobilization system to bring this anti-fascist war to a victorious conclusion. So, this means that while it's already a wartime system to some extent, by declaring a general mobilization or something similar to martial law, Russia will strengthen its system into a warring nation, a wartime state." Through this, Russia plans to conscript over 300,000 additional troops, strengthen its autocratic regime, and solidify the overall wartime state system of society.

The casualties in the Ukraine war exceed 1 million, a severe level. Professor Kim Jong-dae stated, "Nearly a million casualties have occurred since the war began, which is nine times the number of Soviet soldiers killed in all wars worldwide during the Cold War. That's how many died in just the Ukraine war this time." This is nine times the total number of Soviet soldiers killed in all wars fought worldwide during the Cold War, demonstrating that a 'meat grinder' style of warfare, where humans are sacrificed, is continuing.

In September, Russia will hold a Duma (parliamentary) general election. Professor Kim Jong-dae said, "There will be a Russian general election in September. The Russian parliament is called the Duma. There will be elections for the Russian Duma, but minor parties have been disqualified from participating, making it a mere formality, an election that's pointless, to re-consolidate the ruling party and wage this war." This strategy aims to maintain the ruling party's system and continue the war without democratic procedures, through a one-sided election structure that disqualifies minor opposition parties to consolidate power around the ruling party.

North Korea dispatched approximately 14,000 special forces to Russia's Kursk region last year and has recently been supplying a large quantity of ballistic missiles along with labor派遣. Professor Kim Jong-dae stated, "North Korea first dispatched about 14,000 special forces to Russia's Kursk region starting last year and has been fighting in that war. Recently, it has also been sending labor and has supplied a large quantity of ballistic missiles. The Russian ballistic missiles falling on Kyiv are mainly North Korean-made." Particularly, as many of the Russian ballistic missiles (such as KN-23) falling on Kyiv have been identified as North Korean-made, it is analyzed that North Korea aims to secure victor status as a de facto belligerent party.

As Russian drones penetrate at low altitudes, the need for low-altitude defense weapons is growing. Professor Kim Jong-dae explained, "Recently, Russian drones are coming in at low altitudes, so a low-altitude defense weapon is needed, and Cheongung can go up to 15km. So, for low-altitude defense, the Korean-made Cheongung series can be more effective than US-made defense weapons." While US Patriot missiles are specialized for 40km altitude defense, South Korea's Cheongung is effective for low-altitude defense up to 15km, leading to frequent inspections of Korean weapon production facilities such as LIG Nex1 by the Ukrainian side.

About 40% of Russia's crude oil refining facilities have been damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks. Professor Kim Jong-dae stated, "Russia has a lot of crude oil, but it cannot refine it. A bottleneck has occurred here. So what happens? There's a shortage of petroleum products. There's a lot of raw material, but a shortage of processed products, so there are no daily necessities." Russia, despite having abundant crude oil, is facing a shortage of petroleum products due to the paralysis of its processing facilities. Consequently, it is indirectly importing Korean petroleum products through private companies, which falls into the category of items excluded from sanctions.