Lee's Approval Rating Plummets to 33.8%; Deepening Exodus of Those in Their 20s

It has been confirmed that Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Min-seok directed Yong Hye-in's resignation as a ministerial candidate. This is seen as an instance where the Democratic Party's influence surpassed the control of the Blue House and Chairman Lee Jae-myung. This situation is analyzed as exposing the limits of Lee Jae-myung's leadership and could serve as a basis for the 'lame duck government theory'.

Controversy is arising as Yong Hye-in, despite resigning from her ministerial post, is seen as choosing to maintain her position as a lawmaker and secure 1.1 billion won in subsidies for the Basic Income Party. It was pointed out that Yong Hye-in did not mention her own faults at all during her press conference.

A Realmeter survey shows Lee Jae-myung's approval rating has fallen for nine consecutive weeks to 33.8%. Negative evaluations reached 63.3%, widening the gap with positive evaluations to 29.5 percentage points. The situation where negative evaluations exceed 60% is assessed as a loss of government policy-making momentum, raising concerns about a loss of governing power.

Lee Jae-myung's approval rating among women in their 20s has sharply plummeted from the 60% range four months ago to 17.6% currently. This suggests a decline in previous feminism issues, with the entire 20s demographic, regardless of gender, turning away from Lee Jae-myung. This rapid departure of support from the 20s is expected to be a significant burden on Lee Jae-myung's state administration. It is analyzed that a decline in support from future generations could lead to a long-term weakening of his political base.

Hong Ji-seon, the nominee for Minister of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport, is a figure who achieved ultra-fast promotion in the current administration, becoming Gyeonggi Province Director, Vice Minister, and Minister within nine months after passing the local legislative examination. Although his navy service record specifies 32 months, only 18 months were confirmed in actual records, raising suspicions of military service preferential treatment. The Military Manpower Administration refused to submit specific grounds for its judgment, citing 'confirmation impossible,' further escalating the controversy.

The Military Manpower Administration's response of 'confirmation impossible' regarding the reason for Hong Ji-seon's classification as a Grade 4 supplementary service member is fueling controversy. Critics point out that this is the same way they dealt with former lawmaker Ahn Gyu-baek's case, which further undermines trust. The Military Manpower Administration's refusal to submit data leads to various suspicions, including physical grade, mental health, and household circumstances.

Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae emphasized the independence of the judiciary in his commemorative speech for Law Day. He stated that the rule of law can only be realized when courts adjudicate solely according to the Constitution and laws, without undue interference or influence from other state organs, political powers, or litigants. This is interpreted as demonstrating his commitment to upholding the independent status of the judiciary and the principle of separation of powers.

Conflict between the Democratic Party and Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae is deepening over the issue of reappointing Supreme Court justices. The Democratic Party demands prompt reappointment from existing candidates, while Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae adheres to his policy of forming a new candidate recommendation committee. This highlights the sharp confrontation between the judiciary and the political sphere over the interpretation of the power to reappoint Supreme Court justices.

Lee Jae-myung retweeted a post by Park Tae-hoon, director of the Youth Today Research Institute, stating, 'The biggest obstacle to reform is hindering reform in the name of reform.' This is interpreted as an intention to criticize the reform demands of hardliners within the pro-government camp. Some also point out that Lee Jae-myung is lacking people around him and is becoming isolated.

Lee Jae-myung's remark, 'Not a single word is wrong,' while quoting Park Tae-hoon, has drawn criticism. Alongside the point that Lee Jae-myung's speaking style is long and lacks a core message, opinions were raised that his attitude of using 'extreme honorifics' for a specific commentator's remarks is inappropriate.

In a Realmeter poll, Lee Jae-myung's approval rating dropped to the 30s, with 33.8% positive and 63.3% negative. This, coupled with Seoul apartment prices rising for 87 consecutive weeks, shows that public disaffection is accelerating. Counterarguments against the narrative that it is due to resistance from vested interests are also being raised.

Negative public opinion towards Lee Jae-myung is clearly evident in ARS polls. Analysis shows that, unlike in the past, public criticism of Lee Jae-myung is increasing on the streets. This phenomenon is even more pronounced compared to telephone interviews, and it appears to reflect a shift in public sentiment.

Lee Jae-myung's approval rating among those in their 20s plummeted to the 10s, with only 18% positive evaluation. Notably, the positive evaluation among women in their 20s was 19.3%. Both the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung are experiencing a simultaneous decline in approval ratings, and there is an increasing perception that they are exploiting the share of future generations. This is interpreted as a result of young people's policy dissatisfaction and disappointment.

It was pointed out that Lee Jae-myung's past successful 'valley cleanup' strategy was applied to real estate policy but ended in failure. Despite his remark that 'catching real estate prices is easier than cleaning up valleys,' the real estate market has not stabilized, revealing a problem of path dependence in his success.

Lee Jae-myung's responsibility for personnel failures is coming to the forefront. It is argued that if the selection process insulted the public, Lee Jae-myung should have directly withdrawn the nominations. Criticism of lawmaker Yong Hye-in's arrogant attitude, along with strong opposition to lawmaker Kim Min-seok's announcement of solidarity with the Basic Income Party, is also emerging. This personnel controversy is analyzed as dealing a severe blow to Lee Jae-myung's leadership.

The current administration's situation is being compared to the past when candidate Kang Sun-woo was disqualified, being called a 'dead duck situation beyond a lame duck.' It was emphasized that at the time of Kang Sun-woo's disqualification, the approval rating was in the 60s, whereas Lee Jae-myung's current approval rating is in the 30s. This is analyzed as suggesting that Lee Jae-myung's exercise of power is causing internal division.

Along with the collapse of Lee Jae-myung's leadership, the conflict between Lee Jae-myung and lawmaker Choo Mi-ae, known as the 'Myung-Choo War,' is deepening. Choo Mi-ae is pursuing political actions based on 'Gae-ttal' (Lee Jae-myung's hardcore supporters) through a strategy that differentiates her from Lee Jae-myung. Signs of internal figures, including lawmaker Jeong Cheong-rae and now Choo Mi-ae, distancing themselves from Lee Jae-myung are appearing.

In the controversy surrounding the nomination of the first head of the Central Investigation Agency, Choo Mi-ae's side is attacking candidate Kim Ji-yong with a 'prosecutor-出身 frame.' However, critics argue that this reveals a duality, pointing out that the Lee Jae-myung administration's appointments actually employ individuals from a prosecutorial background.

Factional conflict is deepening within the Democratic Party over the ownership of the hardcore supporters 'Gae-ttal,' as lawmakers Choo Mi-ae and Jeong Cheong-rae distance themselves from Lee Jae-myung. They are trying to form their own factions by benchmarking Lee Jae-myung's success in consolidating party power and presidential candidacy through the mobilization of hardcore supporters despite judicial risks. This can be interpreted as a prelude to a shift in the party's power dynamics.

Controversy is growing as news circulates that Kang Shin-sung, an aide to lawmaker Kim Min-seok, has been nominated as the final candidate for standing auditor of the Korea Sports Promotion Foundation. Kang Shin-sung was previously identified as a key figure in lawmaker Kim Min-seok's past political funding law violations, raising suspicions of a patronage appointment based on past financial dealings.

Lawmaker Kim Min-seok is assessed as merely a 'figurehead' selected by Lee Jae-myung, lacking a substantial independent faction. There is a possibility of his simultaneous downfall if approval ratings decline, and internally, risks associated with appointing unfamiliar figures are being pointed out. This is acting as a factor that could deepen the conflict between the pro-Lee faction and the pro-Kim (Min-seok) faction within the Democratic Party.

If the 'presumption of worker' system is introduced, individuals in certain relationships will initially be presumed to be 'workers,' placing the burden on companies to prove they are 'not workers.' Concerns have been raised that this could increase contractual uncertainty and the risk of ambiguous legal application from a third-party perspective. For companies, it means taking on new legal risks.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have informed Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) of their decision to reject KEPCO's request for 25 trillion won in advance electricity payments for five years. This decision is analyzed as considering the uncertainty of the semiconductor super cycle's continuation, political risks, and inefficiency in fund management. The large-scale advance payment could significantly impact corporate financial planning, leading to a cautious approach.