Amid a decline in President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating, an analysis emerged regarding the forceful appointment of Kim Seung-won as the Minister of Justice nominee and President Lee Jae-myung's future political management strategy.
Attorney Jeong Gyeong-wook predicted that the approval rating could drop to the 20% range next week.
This decline in approval rating suggests growing public dissatisfaction with President Lee Jae-myung's state administration.
In addition, surveys by Researchwell showed 61.2% opposition, and PenNMike's own fair survey showed 60.6% opposition and 28% support, indicating that opposition was overwhelmingly dominant in multiple surveys.
Attorney Jeong Gyeong-wook emphasized that opposition sentiment was more than double the support, conveying the public's critical perspective.
He analyzed that President Lee Jae-myung's primary concern was solely focused on dropping charges.
During the hearing process, he used a list of anticipated questions like a script and made emotional appeals with tears, revealing a strong desire for appointment.
This attitude is criticized as a means to resolve his judicial problems.
Attorney Jeong Gyeong-wook analyzed that the 25.1% of votes in favor of Kim Seung-won's appointment might contain a paradoxical intention of 'Go ahead and appoint him, let's see what happens.' This suggests the possibility that a kind of inverse selection psychology was at play, where pushing for the appointment would further accelerate the current administration's downfall.
Attorney Jeong Gyeong-wook pointed out that President Lee Jae-myung has consistent commonalities when exercising his personnel authority. First, the appointed individuals must have many weaknesses, and second, they must lack conviction. He analyzed this as the standard for a personnel policy that favors individuals who will mechanically follow the President's will.
Such individuals are considered easy to control and can act according to the President's intentions, making them useful for maintaining the current administration's stance.
Suspicion was also raised that Chief Secretary Kim Hyun-ji exercises considerable influence over personnel matters.
Since the appointment process is necessary, it is highly likely that the appointment will be pushed through early next week after a press conference on Friday and observing public opinion trends, he predicted.
There is also an observation that the appointment might be pushed through before the Chuseok holiday when public attention is dispersed. Forcing the appointment amidst high public disapproval could be interpreted as a measure to stabilize public sentiment.
Attorney Jeong Gyeong-wook predicted that along with Kim Seung-won's appointment, topics such as dropping charges and constitutional amendment for re-election would be raised at a press conference. This is interpreted as an intention to dilute issues related to the confirmation hearing and orchestrate a political shift.
A strategy to divert public attention by raising major issues like constitutional amendment or dropping charges around Chuseok could be employed.
Attorney Jeong Gyeong-wook predicted that President Lee Jae-myung is likely to use populist policies to reverse approval ratings and secure momentum for Kim Seung-won's appointment. There is discussion of providing 500,000 to 700,000 won in the form of Chuseok livelihood support funds.
Despite controversy over burdening future generations, this could be used to overshadow issues related to Kim Seung-won and divert public attention.
The President's best skill is populism. Yes. 'I will give you money for Chuseok. I will give you a lot.' I believe this will definitely come out.
He analyzed that there is a possibility of a gaffe because the media tends to be less wary of the President due to falling approval ratings.
President Lee Jae-myung's side is likely to frame an argument for the legitimacy of Kim Seung-won's appointment by citing the case of Yong Hye-in's resignation.
However, he pointed out that such announcements would be difficult to be effective when the public no longer trusts Lee Jae-myung's words.
It is analyzed that Lee Jae-myung might stage a kind of 'Lee Jae-myung show' like the past real estate debate, and the public would perceive him as a 'shepherd boy president,' making it difficult for his approval ratings to rebound.
Attorney Jeong Gyeong-wook explained that if people are deceived once, they consider it the fault of the deceiver; if twice, they think something is a little off; but if deceived a third time, they start to think they are accomplices. This suggests that due to Lee Jae-myung's repeated deceptive remarks, public cynicism has deepened, making it difficult for approval ratings to rise further.
Repeated failures to keep promises and changing statements have eroded public trust, acting as the biggest obstacle to a rebound in approval ratings.
Minister of National Defense nominee Kang Shin-chul defined the December 12th Incident as a clear rebellion. Furthermore, while he had previously opposed the integration of military academies, he reversed this stance during the hearing, expressing support for integration, which sparked controversy.
Opposition lawmakers are now demanding Kang Shin-chul's resignation, citing his changed statements and past remarks as problematic.
Attorney Jeong Gyeong-wook evaluated that nominee Kang Shin-chul showed a lack of conviction and philosophy as a general from the Korea Military Academy. He pointed out that with insufficient military experience in the security line, the nominee should play a 'red team' role, offering sharp criticism and advice to the President, but he is inadequate in that ability.
The nominee was criticized for consistently giving answers that aligned with the President's intentions, showing a lack of conviction.
The host emphasized that through his experience as Deputy Commander of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command, he is someone who understands the importance of combined ROK-US operations better than anyone.
However, despite this experience, the security awareness and lack of conviction revealed during the hearing raise questions.
Attorney Jeong Gyeong-wook pointed out that there are significant concerns from a military strategic perspective that wartime operational control transfer is premature at this point.
Assemblywoman Kang Sun-young also expressed the view that now is not the time for transfer, adding to the criticism of the nominee's remarks.
Attorney Jeong Gyeong-wook pointed out that a common characteristic among the nominees in this confirmation hearing was their very poor attitude. Nominee Kang Shin-chul also faced criticism for consistently claiming 'I didn't know' regarding special housing allocations for displaced residents, his son's commercial property allocation, and loans to his aunt.
Regarding allegations of illegal residency registration, he also consistently replied 'I don't remember,' earning him the nickname 'Kang Shin-chul the Evictor.' This clearly demonstrates the nominees' irresponsible attitudes and moral issues.
In response, the nominee answered, 'It was not appropriate at that time,' but did not mention practical difficulties such as, 'Isn't it difficult for soldiers on the front lines to buy their own homes otherwise?' Instead, he merely explained, 'I didn't know.'
Attorney Jeong Gyeong-wook strongly criticized this attitude, stating that if he had given a more realistic explanation, the public might have understood, but the 'I didn't know' answer was utterly dismissive of the public.
Such an explanation has provoked public outrage and further intensified the moral controversy.
Answers come from the transcript, with the exact spot cited.
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