Oil Prices and Bond Yields Fall... Will the Stock Market Rally Continue?

At the early stages of a stock market rally, caution is needed to avoid being shaken out of positions by short-term volatility.

Since the market is flowing in a positive direction, it is wise to take a long-term perspective rather than being overly conscious of short-term volatility.

These events are likely to contribute to maintaining a positive atmosphere in the market.

If the current upward trend continues, the recent correction period can be evaluated as having served as an opportunity for accumulation.

Recent analysis of Japan's U.S. Treasury holdings shows that the amount sold has hardly decreased. This suggests the possibility of prior communication between the U.S. and Japan.

Therefore, Japan's selling of U.S. Treasuries is not expected to be a problem that significantly shakes the global economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s interest rate decision announcement time is expected to remain at 3:30 PM as before. With the yen currently pushed down to the 155 level, the yen would need to strengthen to the mid-140 level for carry trades to become active.

If these conditions are not met, the BOJ's interest rate decision is analyzed to have limited impact on the market.

The extent and speed of the yen's strengthening act as important variables, and at present, the likelihood of carry trades occurring is low.

Hyundai Motor's stock price is currently showing an inverted alignment chart pattern. In an inverted alignment situation, if it fails to break above the previous high, trend trading should be avoided.

It is important to confirm whether the 323,000 won to 330,000 won range, the previous low, is maintained, and purchases should be carefully considered until it surpasses 460,000 won.

In a short-term rebound, there is a possibility of range trading in the 400,000 won range, but if the lower support line (323,000 won to 330,000 won) is not maintained, there is a risk of falling to the late 200,000 won range.

On the weekly chart, a conservative response is recommended until the 60-week moving average is recovered. It is advisable not to consider new purchases until it breaks above 460,000 won.

Naver had the experience of being overvalued as a national stock during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, there has been a lack of groundbreaking changes in its business content, resulting in weak momentum for stock price growth.

It has recently been moving sideways in a box range between 190,000 won and 230,000 won, and even if it rises, the early-to-mid 230,000 won range is expected to act as a strong resistance line.

On the KOSPI, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Doosan are showing good flows, and most sobujang stocks are expected to perform well.

Among robot stocks, attention should be paid to stocks related to common components such as reducers and actuators. When the market is uncertain, a strategy of waiting and then entering after confirming supply concentration is recommended.

Concerns about semiconductor price declines due to increased volume do not fit the current situation. Data center demand continues to grow significantly, and supply remains limited. This suggests that semiconductor prices will be formed stably based on mid-to-long-term contracts.

The semiconductor industry is currently in a growth phase, and oversupply should not be interpreted based on past maturity-phase standards.

In the future, semiconductors will be widely used in various fields such as robots, and by then supply and demand may be somewhat balanced, but that is a story for the distant future.

Recently, ICTK has been showing a sharp rise, and it is a stock spanning both quantum communication and optical communication. As network themes become active like this, wire infrastructure-related stocks are rising together.

This is also connected to themes that enhance the efficiency of data centers and semiconductor bottlenecks, and the strength of related stocks is expected to continue.

This is because caution is deepening ahead of the simultaneous expiration of U.S. futures and options.

While buying by institutions and other corporations is partially offsetting foreign selling, the lack of net foreign buying is acting as a burden on the market.

Trading volume is trending downward ahead of the holiday, but there is no need to view this too negatively. Even when trading is low, unexpected movements can occur.

Even if there is foreign outflow, unconditional market concern is unnecessary, and the 1.6 trillion won in share buybacks will have the effect of supporting the market's downside.

Since the current trend is not clearly established, new purchases are not recommended.

There is also a possibility of switching to an inverted alignment if it fails to break through the box range, so it is necessary to manage risk through position adjustment.

The expansion of AI data centers highlights efficiency issues and leads to increased infrastructure investment. Along with the positive effects of U.S. legislation, this trend is manifesting as rotation buying and strength in wire-related stocks.

In particular, Gaon Cable showed a notable move, rising 14%.

Wire-related stocks are expected to receive steady attention along with AI infrastructure expansion.

Falling oil prices and bond yields can lead to further rebound in the Nasdaq and improve supply conditions due to external variables. In particular, if oil prices enter the $90 range, it will have an even more positive impact on the market.

If oil prices and bond yields fall together, the stock market rally is expected to gain even stronger momentum.

We must continue to watch closely whether oil prices break above $100.

Doosan Enerbility is maintaining its upward trend line, and the short-term trading range is 95,000 won to 100,000 won. However, from a mid-term perspective, the semiconductor sector is judged to be more favorable than nuclear power.

When considering investment priorities, it is recommended to focus on semiconductors rather than nuclear power, and the possibility of rotation buying in small nuclear power stocks such as KEPCO E&C and Woori Technology is also mentioned.