International Oil Prices Surge, Interest Rates Hit New Highs

The presenter stated, “Regarding whether the Fed will be able to raise interest rates, if you listen to President Trump's remarks yesterday, he said Washington will do what Washington needs to do.” Some interpret that a September rate hike could have a stronger impact on the market than an October one.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin articulated that sustained growth is essential to resolve the fiscal deficit issue. He emphasized, “No matter how you look at it, the only way for the U.S. to escape its fiscal deficit and such problems is to create more growth, so we cannot stop now.” Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields hit a new high, causing market concern, but 30-year yields declined, showing an attempt to highlight policy achievements.

Goldman Sachs assessed the U.S. economy as strong and consumer resilience as robust. They analyzed that interest rate hikes are intended to curb an overheating economy and are far from indicating a systemic crisis. The presenter quoted Goldman Sachs' position: “From Goldman Sachs' perspective, the current situation is still robust, so the narrative about interest rate hikes is not because of a huge market problem, but rather to manage inflation concerns and prevent the economy from entering an overheated phase. If that is the case, there is no major crisis in the credit system, and high economic growth can be sustained.”

The presenter stated, “Morgan Stanley raised its oil price forecast for Brent crude to $100 for the fourth quarter because such situations continue to be prolonged. Raising it to $100 from an expected $75 per barrel is a very significant increase.” This could exacerbate inflation burdens and act as a pressure factor for additional interest rate hikes.

President Trump maintained a firm stance against opposition to data center construction, stating it means 'to become poor.' He emphasized job creation and increased tax revenue through data center development, while also employing a patriotic strategy using China against opposing forces.

The presenter stated, “OpenAI has surpassed $1 billion in ad revenue. They announced that annual ad revenue has exceeded $1 billion, showing positive signs and expectations.” OpenAI has launched ad services in over 40 countries, and users of its natural language coding tool Codex are also rapidly increasing.

The presenter noted, “Individual investors' buying has continued for 10 straight trading days. It is said that sentiment has largely recovered, leading to expectations of a level-up.” In the short term, CDS premiums (default risk) have risen, but ecosystem expansion with Taiwanese companies like MediaTek is also anticipated.

Recent spot prices for DRAM have surged to 4-5 times the long-term supply contract prices, increasing uncertainty in the semiconductor market. The presenter stated, “DRAM spot prices have recently shown another sharp increase. Spot prices have gone up to four or five times the long-term supply contract prices again.” In this situation, Samsung Electronics is reportedly considering converting its foundry lines to memory production. Market opinions are divided on whether the memory shortage will persist.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has initiated an investigation by filing a lawsuit against Amazon, alleging that it misled advertisers. The presenter stated, “The FTC, the Federal Trade Commission, said Amazon misled advertisers. They said Amazon put in non-existent competitors when bidding for advertisements.” Although Amazon is suspected of using fake competitors in ad bidding, Piper Sandler still rates Amazon as a promising AI stock.

The presenter noted, “At this time tomorrow, Palo Alto will announce its earnings. While CrowdStrike and Dell are important, Palo Alto is also quite significant,” highlighting the impact of Palo Alto's stock as a cybersecurity company.

Park Myeong-seok, Analyst, commented, “If you look at the atmosphere after Dell and Palo Alto’s earnings announcements, you might see a shift from a very favorable view of software recently and a less favorable view of hardware. We’ll need to watch for that tomorrow.” It remains to be seen whether the recent favorable attitude towards software and conservative view towards hardware will change.

Park Myeong-seok, Analyst, analyzed, “Bernstein also had positive things to say about Meta, predicting it will surpass Google in search advertising this year.” This is attributed to a sharp increase in ad impressions within Instagram Stories, leading to a significant rise in Meta's ad market share.

Park Myeong-seok, Analyst, explained, “This can simply be seen as anticipation for the Cybertruck test drive event. The Cybertruck is a significant issue that many people are looking forward to, and there's also news that Optimus production has increased at the Fremont factory. Tesla has a lot of products to unveil in the second half of this year.” This also connects to Tesla's many new product launches planned for the second half of the year.

MicroStrategy's additional purchase of 4,600 Bitcoins has heightened expectations for the cryptocurrency market. Tom Lee predicted that cryptocurrencies would continue to rise based on the 4-year cycle bottom formation theory. Park Myeong-seok, Analyst, stated, “Tom Lee believes cryptocurrencies will go higher due to the 4-year cycle bottom formation. And Korean investors have reportedly moved a lot of funds from AI-related stocks to cryptocurrencies.” A trend of Korean investors shifting funds from AI-related stocks to cryptocurrencies has also been observed.

It shows an interesting correlation where a game's popularity affects viewership on video streaming platforms.