"More dangerous than war": North Korea's movements

It has been argued that, unlike the eras of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un has abandoned the concept of unification. Since acquiring nuclear weapons, North Korea has escalated the intensity of localized provocations through its 'nuclear shadow strategy.' Unlike in the past, it now responds to South Korea-U.S. joint exercises with immediate provocations. Research Fellow Lee Il-kyu emphasized Kim Jong Un's changed stance, stating, "Kim Jong Un absolutely does not want war. Why? I said it. He said he won't unify."

It is estimated that a significant number of casualties, including replacement troops, occurred among the initial 11,000 North Korean soldiers dispatched to Russia. Since they were assigned to expendable roles on the front lines, their impact on actual military capability improvement is expected to be limited. Dr. Cho Han-bum assessed, "There will be a limited impact on North Korea's military capability formation," and noted that strengthening North Korea's military structure is not easy in modern drone-centric warfare.

It was confirmed that only a tiny fraction of North Korean soldiers dispatched to Russia survived, and a significant number committed suicide. Research Fellow Lee Il-kyu stated, "Only two were captured, and everyone else died. Even the two captured prisoners tried several times to kill themselves. They were prisoners who couldn't die," referring to the military discipline and culture of unconditional loyalty within North Korea. The Ukrainian side reportedly described North Korean soldiers as 'zombies,' which seems related to their ignorance and simplicity.

It was revealed that North Korea's military internally acknowledges the superior capabilities of the South Korean military, having experienced naval mine warfare, among other things. During the Yeonpyeong Island shelling, the low accuracy of North Korean artillery shells was confirmed, and the immediate counterfire capability of South Korea's K9 self-propelled howitzers inflicted devastating damage on North Korean forces. Research Fellow Lee Il-kyu quoted North Korean soldiers at the time saying, "We had nothing left but to prepare for death. We were utterly defeated," pointing out North Korea's inferiority.

Doubts have been raised about the military effectiveness of North Korea's past 'Seoul in a sea of fire' claim. Analysis suggests that a temporary mass shelling using long-range artillery is realistically impossible. Dr. Cho Han-bum stated, "They say that long-range artillery on the MDL at the armistice line can fire tens of thousands of rounds in an hour. Then the public would be terrified. But that is impossible," pointing out the limitations of the 170mm Koksan artillery's exposure time and tunnel preparation time. He also emphasized that the counter-artillery radar (Cheon-kyung-II) system can neutralize North Korea's artillery capabilities through pinpoint targeting.

An analysis revealed a significant gap in the technical capabilities of South and North Korean self-propelled howitzers. North Korea's 170mm Koksan howitzer takes 3 to 5 minutes to reload after a single shot, whereas South Korea's K9 self-propelled howitzer possesses modern technology capable of firing 3 rounds in 15 seconds. Dr. Cho Han-bum explained, "The Koksan howitzer can be killed by a kill chain before it even fires, and even if it fires a round, we know where it came from before the shell lands and strike the enemy's origin point. That's modern technology," explaining that chassis technologies like suspension determine victory or defeat in modern warfare.

It has been revealed that North Korea awarded over 100 hero titles in connection with the dispatch of troops to Ukraine. This is highly unusual compared to the total number of heroes from the entire Korean War (under 700). Dr. Cho Han-bum noted, "Two people were captured on the Ukrainian front. These individuals were caught when they failed to commit suicide. They changed their minds to come to South Korea within two weeks. That's an illusion." He mentioned instances of immediate disillusionment with the regime and defections after prisoners were captured. This excessive awarding of hero titles is interpreted as an attempt to quell unrest within the military.

The loss of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) buffer zone has halved the physical buffer area. This acts as a risk factor, doubling the possibility of accidental clashes due to misfires, regardless of North Korea's intention for a preemptive strike. Dr. Cho Han-bum pointed out, "Eliminating the DMZ buffer zone means the buffer has been halved, so the possibility of clashes has doubled, hasn't it?" He warned that Kim Jong Un's misjudgment of the situation, given his immature military strategy, could lead to even greater danger.

Analysis suggests that North Korea's ability to initiate an all-out war is virtually less than 5%. However, Research Fellow Lee Il-kyu emphasized, "I estimate about 5%. The danger arises when accidental clashes can no longer be managed by inter-Korean means." Therefore, he warned against complacency and slackness.

With the possibility of resuming North Korea-U.S. talks, the strategic interests of both sides have been analyzed. For Kim Jong Un, the U.S. is essential for lifting sanctions and ensuring regime survival. Dr. Cho Han-bum explained, "North Korea taught that the U.S. is a sworn enemy, but deep down, the relationship with the U.S. is a wall that must be overcome. We can survive by abandoning them, but the U.S. is an entity with whom we must join hands." Meanwhile, for former U.S. President Trump, North Korea-U.S. talks could be a powerful card for a political reality show. Analysis suggests there is a reason for Trump, facing an election, and Kim Jong Un, needing achievements during his term, to meet.

Soaring exchange rates were presented as evidence supporting the theory of a great depression in North Korea's economy. The current exchange rate for the North Korean won is reportedly around 60,000 to 70,000 won per U.S. dollar. This signifies a sharp depreciation from the past rate of 8,000 won per U.S. dollar. Research Fellow Lee Il-kyu stated, "In many aspects, it's currently 60,000 to 70,000 won per dollar. It used to be around 8,000 won," pointing out that North Korea's reported economic figures are merely an illusion.

Analysis suggests that former President Trump intends to use the North Korea card. Dr. Cho Han-bum stated, "President Trump is not the type of person we know. If he loses the midterm elections, he'll be more inclined to meet Kim Jong Un. Why? It's a downhill path, isn't it? He needs a reversal card then, doesn't he?" He predicted that Trump would pursue North Korea-U.S. talks regardless of the midterm election outcome. Trump tends to use Kim Jong Un as a breakthrough for political crises, and examples were given of domestic political crises during the past Singapore and Hanoi summits.

North Korea's demands for regime security guarantees have changed from the past. Previously, it demanded a peace treaty, diplomatic relations, and sanctions relief, but now, recognition as a nuclear state is the most crucial condition for regime security. Research Fellow Lee Il-kyu explained, "Now it's changing. No need for a peace treaty. No need for diplomatic relations. Definitely recognize us as a nuclear state. That's the most crucial aspect of regime security." This is reflected in the 2022 nuclear force policy law and the 2023 constitution, indicating that North Korea will not abandon its nuclear development.

Kim Jong Un formalized the 'two hostile states' theory, clearly stating his intention to abandon unification and reject regime competition. Research Fellow Lee Il-kyu explained, "A hostile relationship means not establishing diplomatic relations or engaging in exchange, but living completely as separate entities. When it aligns with our national interest, we can send and receive. However, if it conflicts with the national interest of our Democratic People's Republic, we will thoroughly punish it." He mentioned that North Korea can engage in selective exchanges (such as sending a soccer team) based on its national interest. Furthermore, a change in perception toward South Korea was confirmed, including the explicit mention of 'Republic of Korea' in official documents. This indicates North Korea's intention to recognize South Korea as a separate nation and pursue practical diplomacy. This change requires a fundamental redefinition of inter-Korean relations and is expected to significantly impact the future situation on the Korean Peninsula.