Global Stock Market Loses Upward Momentum, Prolonged Sideways Trend Expected

Nvidia's inventory has increased, and its accounts receivable collection period has lengthened by over 30%. As major clients like Microsoft extend payment terms, Nvidia's net cash flow has decreased by over 50%. This deterioration in cash flow raises doubts about Nvidia's growth potential.

Foreign futures buying near the current index resistance level is a very short-term position, a dangerous signal indicating the market could reverse at any time. Institutional investors net sold 1.4 trillion won at the upper end of the KOSPI's box range.

The global stock market is unlikely to see upward momentum after Nvidia's earnings announcement. With increasing burdens across valuation, earnings, supply/demand, and charts, sideways fluctuations are expected to continue for some time. The absence of leading stocks prolongs the search process, while decreasing trading volume acts as a technical rebound signal.

The recent rebound in secondary battery stocks is the last in a rotation cycle, which can be interpreted as a sign of weakening index upward momentum. Some stocks related to ESS (Energy Storage Systems) and all-solid-state batteries showed strength.

While stock prices can be misleading, trading volume is a crucial indicator of a market's peak. If trading volume decreases as the index rises, it means a rebound peak is imminent. For a true bottom to form, trading volume must fall further to less than half of its current level. Many investors believe that while stock prices can be manipulated, trading volume cannot; however, in reality, both stock prices and trading volume can be misleading. Therefore, these technical indicators must be interpreted carefully.

To discover new leading stocks, it is necessary to determine whether major players are accumulating shares through trading volume and chart patterns. Particular attention should be paid to stocks with trading volumes exceeding 2,000. In past cases such as Daehan Cable and Daehan Optical Communication, significant increases were observed in stocks identified through these technical indicators.

KEPCO E&C has surpassed its previous high, but it is currently facing resistance at the 120-day moving average, making a breakthrough in one go difficult. It will likely need to gradually absorb selling pressure as the 60-day moving average turns upwards. This process is expected to lead to a breakthrough of the resistance level for nuclear power-related stocks.

Toptec secured an order worth 45 billion won for Hyundai Mobis factory automation facilities. This can be seen as an expansion of its electrification component capabilities related to hybrid car batteries. Technically, two major momentum events have been identified, making it a new stock of interest. As a specialist in factory automation equipment, Toptec contributes to improving the efficiency of Hyundai Mobis' production lines and aligns with the growth of related industries.

All catalysts for Samsung Electronics are already exposed, lacking further upward momentum. While individual investors, the leading force, are selling, the company's share buybacks are defending the stock price. With already known information, significant changes in Samsung Electronics' stock price trajectory are unlikely. Company share buybacks are absorbing individual selling pressure, maintaining the current stock price level.

Samsung Electronics' 40 trillion won share buyback plan, combined with the existing 10 trillion won in phased buybacks, is not significantly different from past figures. Investors should be wary of being swayed by the 40 trillion won figure and avoid buying at highs. With a current dividend yield around 4%, it offers little merit compared to government bonds. The actual impact of share buybacks on the stock price may not be as large as the figure suggests.

When Samsung Electronics' stock price is high, PBR (Price-to-Book Ratio) analysis is more appropriate than PER (Price-to-Earnings Ratio). Simply comparing a PER of 36 at past lows to the current PER of 3.8 is unreasonable. At highs, be wary of analysts who emphasize positives like dividends to encourage buying. Using inappropriate indicators can lead to losses for individual investors.

The Nasdaq index trend is still alive, but divergence has occurred at the high point due to decreasing trading volume. The PER of major US M7 companies is around 22-25 times, indicating they are not undervalued. The Korean stock market tends to repeat downward patterns with greater volatility than upside. Global stock markets lack sufficient trading volume and momentum for further gains.

At the current upper end of the box range, chasing highs is difficult. Be wary of being misled by foreign futures buying and getting caught at the top. Low-price buying for individual stocks is recommended after a decline to near the 20-day moving average.

The current won-dollar exchange rate is below 1,380 won. It is expected to reach 1,300 won by June next year. Intervention by foreign exchange authorities will be limited after breaking below 1,350 won.

The 8-month cumulative current account surplus amounts to approximately 200 billion dollars. Even after deducting about 140 billion dollars in foreign stock sales, an additional surplus of about 80 billion dollars is expected over the next six months. The total foreign currency held by companies will amount to 180 billion dollars, adding 80 billion dollars to the existing 100 billion dollars. This is highly likely to lead to an oversupply of foreign exchange.

Skepticism is expressed regarding the gold price reaching $100,000. The peak is anticipated to be around $50,000 per ounce, and a phased selling strategy is recommended if the price rises by 10-12% from the current level. Investors should approach carefully when the gold price rebounds.

The current index is at the top of its box range, making it a risky area for buying. Buying at the upper end of the box range has a high probability of loss. New leading stocks are expected to emerge when a second bottom forms after another correction. The strategy emphasizes focusing on policy-related stocks such as nuclear power, robots, and data centers, and phased buying after corrections.